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Looking forward to the rest of 2015, Mercom makes no comment on China’s plans for 17.8 GW of solar in 2015, while conversely expecting Japanese installations to peak during 2015, thanks in part to a revised feed-in tariff for the financial year 2015. Mercom is predicting Japan to have installed approximately 9 GW of solar in 2014, and to match that again in 2015.
Heading further east, the US solar market is also predicted to “grow at a rapid pace in 2015,” expected to reach 8.5 GW “as installations accelerate with the looming ITC [Investment Tax Credit] expiration deadline at the end of next year.” 2016 is most definitely going to be a frantic year for the solar industry in the US, as many companies attempt to initiate construction before the end of the year, but as Mercom also notes, 2015 is not going to be left out of the ITC picture, with “the push for installations … already begun.”
Europe continues to see a slowing of solar installations, but whether that’s because of the existing baseload of solar installations decreasing demand or a lack of political will driving further expansion is yet to be seen. Germany installed only 1.9 GW in 2014, its lowest figure over the past five years, and Mercom predicts 2015 to be similar. The UK presented itself as the most attractive solar market in Europe in 2014, installing 2.2 GW and with Mercom expecting another 2.9 GW in 2015. The UK’s attractiveness for solar installations was boosted by the Renewables Obligation Certificates for projects larger than 5 MW, but Mercom is expecting 2015 to be the UK’s best year, before it begins to “decline thereafter.” Italy will also see a smaller installation figure in 2015, unless something changes to boost the industry’s health this year.
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