Lukashenko heads for election win

[Kagom]

MINSK (Reuters) - Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko looked to be heading for electoral victory on Monday, but his liberal opponents took to the streets accusing him of rigging results and vowing a campaign of mass protest.

Some 10,000 people rallied in heavy snow in the central October Square after polls closed on Sunday, a protest unmatched in recent years. Lukashenko had pledged to "wring the necks" of anyone threatening public order, but police took no action.

Official returns from Sunday's contest, with 72.2 percent of the vote counted, gave Lukashenko 82.3 percent to 5.8 percent for main opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich. Officials were due to make further announcements on Monday morning.

The opposition rejected the returns as blatant fraud and said campaigning was marred by the arrests of dozens of opposition activists and mass intimidation.

Protesters stood in bitter winds waving flags and placards reading: "We believe! We can do it! We shall win!"

Milinkevich urged his supporters to regroup again on Monday night.

"We have already achieved a colossal victory. People have overcome their fear. Our objective is new and fair elections," he said at the start of the rally.

His calls were reminiscent of events in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine, where opposition activists mounted campaigns of mass protest against election results they said were fraudulent. In both countries, leaders were ultimately forced from power and replaced by pro-Western opponents.

KREMLIN CONCERN

Those events clearly disturbed Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been at pains to restore as much as he can of Moscow's influence in former Soviet republics. While having little personal affection for the outspoken Lukashenko, he may see his success in Belarus as serving Kremlin interests.

Lukashenko can draw on strong domestic support especially in rural areas where many see his 12-year rule as having spared them the turmoil, hardship and "wild" capitalism seen in many ex-Soviet republics.

But in the West, Belarus is seen widely as a last bastion of Soviet-style government and economic organization. He has been described by Washington as Europe's last true dictator.

The Belarus election is likely to top the agenda of a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday.

The EU has vowed to punish any vote-rigging with sanctions such as visa bans targeting those officials deemed responsible. If evidence points to vote-rigging, EU ministers could agree on a list Belarussian officials to face visa bans in coming weeks.

The bloc is reluctant to impose harsher measures such as economic sanctions for fear they would hit the Belarussian people rather than Lukashenko's government.

The people say the elections were rigged and people aren't happy at all in general about this guy.

 

[Said1]

The people say the elections were rigged and people aren't happy at all in general about this guy.

Looks like he won anyway.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...091317Z_01_L19343419_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BELARUS.xml

 

[Kagom]

Looks like he won anyway.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...091317Z_01_L19343419_RTRUKOC_0_UK-BELARUS.xml

Yeah, he did. This is gonna make it look like the elections were definitely fixed a second time as in the 2000 elections (they apparently have 6 year terms and this guy first took power in 1994).

 

[nosarcasm]

"elections" and 84% support. Well they took it down from the usual 99.8% in the Soviet times.

 

[5stringJeff]

Belarus is, as I understand it, the last vestage of Communist dictatorship in Europe. They need something like the Orange Revolution!

 

[Annie]

Belarus is, as I understand it, the last vestage of Communist dictatorship in Europe. They need something like the Orange Revolution!

Looks like they are going to try!

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=2366

3/20/2006
Filed under:

* Revolutions
* Eastern Europe
* Belarus

—
“THE POLICE WERE SMILING”

In just a couple of hours, we will see if democratic opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich’s call to the people for street protests against an obviously fraudulent election will pan out. People are to meet at October Square in the middle of Minsk at 6:30 p.m. wearing smiles first and foremost. They will call for a recount and new elections.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has condemned the election. The chairman of the Helsinki Commission, Senator Brownback (R-KS( has slammed the election as a complete “farce.” Ministers from the European Union have followed suit, and are pursuing the path of bolstering sanctions against supporters of the regime. All in all, it is Western democratic countries that are critical of what is happening in Belarus today.

It is Russia and its authoritarian allies, on the other hand, who are most approving of the election. Russia’s foreign ministry backed Lukashenko 110% while the CIS election observation mission, composed of observers from countries like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, has called the election “free, open and transparent.”

The Central Election Commission says that Lukashenko won with 82.6% of the vote with a 92% turnout. Please, control your laughing.

It is this very outrageous number and the indignity that follows suit that will hopefully bring people back out onto the streets today. Last night was the breaking of the barrier of fear. Even if Lukashenko is able to maintain his power for another five years, a certain threshold has been crossed that has ignited a new flame in the people there. Never before have they been allowed to gather in such large numbers. They finally saw that others were with them, in a state that tries to keep people apart. They left with a piece of hope in their hearts.

That hope is clings to the promise that people will come at to the square as they have been called to; that they won’t give up. Not once last night did the riot police intervene and break up the rally. One interviewee marked notably that, “The police were smiling.” How could they not? The power of the people shouting, “Love live Belarus!” is intense, enough to bend the iron-willed heart of even the toughest man. The outright moral integrity and patriotism of the rally last night touched everyone there.

The crowd toward the end had begun to shout, “The police are with us!” If they gather today without interference, we will certainly know if that is true. They’ve certainly got the protest babes on their side. As of right now, 6:30 Minsk time is an hour and a half away. Until then, we wait.

 

[Said1]

What does the UN say?

















Psych.

 

[Annie]

Wow!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060320/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_belarus_3

White House Calls for New Belarus Vote

By BARRY SCHWEID, AP Diplomatic WriterMon Mar 20, 2:51 PM ET

The Bush administration on Monday called for new elections in Belarus after independent observers said the re-election of hard-line incumbent Alexander Lukashenko was a farce.

A series of punitive measures will be discussed with the European Union, the State Department said. These could include widespread limits on financial assistance to the Minsk government.

The administration already has peppered hard-line Belarus with restrictions on travel to the United States of individuals suspected of human rights abuses and barred meetings between high-level U.S. and Belarus officials.

President Bush's spokesman, Scott McClellan, said "the United States does not accept the results of the election," which the White House said was the result of election fraud and human rights abuses.

Flying with President Bush to a speech in Cleveland, McClellan said the election was flawed by "a climate of fear."

"We applaud democrats in Belarus for their courage and peaceful stand to reclaim their freedom," McClellan said. "We support their call for a new election."

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus, a nation of 10 million, since 1994, quashing opposition groups and independent media, leading Western nations to dub him "Europe's last dictator" and treat him as a pariah.

Last month, the Bush administration accused Lukashenko's government of involvement in the murders of a pro-democracy businessman and an independent journalist.

To underscore U.S. disapproval of the ex-Soviet republic's behavior, Bush and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley met with the victims' widows, Svyatlana Zavadskaya and Irina Krasovskaya.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack, meanwhile, noted that the 55-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe had found the election was characterized by a disregard for human rights, of freedom of assembly, association and expression, as well as by a climate of intimidation and insecurity and a highly problematic vote count.

McCormack called for the immediate release of people detained during the campaign and said, without elaboration, that "the United States is preparing to take serious, appropriate measures against those officials responsible for election fraud and other human rights abuses."

The U.S. official said the administration would coordinate with the European Union on a plan of action.

So Does EU

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a94d728e-b841-11da-bfc5-0000779e2340.html

EU denounces Lukashenko’s poll victory
>By Neil Buckley and Stefan Wagstyl in Minsk and Daniel Dombey in Brussels
>Published: March 20 2006 18:57 | Last updated: March 20 2006 18:57
>>

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ authoritarian president, declared on Monday that foreign-backed attempts to overthrow him had failed, claiming a crushing victory in elections that international observers condemned as seriously flawed.

More than 3,000 demonstrators had gathered in the capital, Minsk, by early evening for a second night-time protest, as Alexander Milinkevich, the main opposition leader, continued calls for a rerun of Sunday’s poll.

But the numbers were initially fewer than the 5,000 people who defied official threats of violence and arrest to rally on Sunday night – the biggest demonstrations in Minsk for a decade. The protests seemed unlikely to escalate to the levels that brought about revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia.

Mr Milinkevich said opposition exit polls suggested the Belarus president won less than the 50 per cent required to secure victory in a single round of voting, though official figures on Monday gave him 82.6 per cent. The opposition said their data showed Mr Milinkevich scored 30 per cent, five times his official total.

Mr Lukashenko’s victory is likely to increase the international isolation of a regime the US has labelled “Europe’s last dictatorship”. The White House said on Monday night it did not accept the vote, and European Union foreign ministers denounced the elections as “neither free nor fair”.

Though EU ministers failed to agree on an immediate response, targeted sanctions, including broadening of existing visa bans on top Belarusan officials, as well as possible asset freezes, are likely to be agreed next month.

The Belarus poll also suggested the wave of pro-democracy revolutions that swept Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan has lost momentum. In three recent elections in former Soviet republics – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and now Belarus – the opposition has failed to overturn regimes accused of authoritarianism.

Diplomats and civil society groups have warned that Mr Lukashenko, who has been in power for 12 years, is likely to use a new five-year term to crush remaining opposition and independent media.

“What is important is the trend away from democracy and towards dictatorship and a totalitarian regime,” said one senior Western diplomat in Minsk. “The significance of the election lies in the psychological impact it will have on Mr Lukashenko.”

The Belarus president on Monday exuded confidence, telling a Soviet-style victory press conference the elections were “honest and free”.

“The revolutionary project that was talked about and was prepared in Belarus has not happened,” he said. He dismissed demonstrators in Minsk as “freaks” and said the idea of international sanctions against Belarus was “absurd”.

“You can’t isolate a country at the heart of Europe,” Mr Lukashenko added.

But EU ministers endorsed the damning findings of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s 476-strong observer mission.

The mission’s report found that Mr Lukashenko had “permitted state authority to be used in a manner which did not allow citizens to freely and fairly express their will”.

It said statements by the Belarusan KGB associating the opposition with terrorism and accusing it of planning a coup had led to a “climate of intimidation”. Campaign workers and opposition figures had been subject to “physical assaults, detention and even imprisonment”.

“I would have liked nothing more than to be able to make a positive statement about the election,” said Geert Ahrens, head of the OSCE mission. “Unfortunately, there were too many serious violations.”

 

[Annie]

And so are the people of Belarus. As you can see at the end, they are going to need all the support they can get:

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?cat=3

You'll have to scroll down a bit, to 'updates'

UPDATES: Ivan Lenin is translating LiveJournal reports from Minsk-based lipski, as well as others. He reports that several thousand people are on the square and they finally have proper amplifying equipment for the sound system. He says that right now there are up to 7,000 people and there doesn’t look to be many more coming. The police have also confiscated some tents. Hard to confirm just about anything right now and even worse, the people on the square right now don’t know what the government is doing outside the square to prevent people from going there.

Charter 97 is back up! It is finally able to update and it says that over 10,000 are in the square and that Milinkevich will be arriving soon. RFE/RL Belarus Service reports now around 6000 people and that busloads of riot police are being brought in. Anthony Evans’ sources in Minsk say that the protest is not over, that people are just hidden.

IT LIVES: Milinkevich spoke to the crowd: “Today they have announced the results of the presidential vote. People are laughing. It’s a disgrace. They have isolated themselves from the people. They are afraid of the people. Their power rests on lies and violence. We are the free people of Belarus. We do not recognize the results of the vote. It’s a constitutional coup! It’s seizure of power by Lukashenka and his clique. We are for the rule of law! We wouldn’t’t surrender! We demand free and fair elections! We are for freedom, truth and justice… Our protest will be long and powerful!” The number of people has clearly increased and Charter 97 has put it at 20,000. It says that the Bell of Freedom is ringing over the square and rock-musicians are playing songs for the crowd.

FINALLY, PHOTOS: I’ll be uploading them to here.

The opposition leaders have taken the floor and adopted the “Declaration of the Belarussian People” that calls “to plead Alyaksandr Lukashenka the key frustrator of free and democratic election; to plead the present staff of the Central Election Commission responsible for the falsification of the election outcome; to appoint the second election for July 16, 2006.” People are screaming “No to dictatorship!”

AN HOUR LATER: Charter 97 has finally gotten its last hour of updates going. Milinkevich has declared that they will stay on the square until victory and has told people to call everyone they know, and to fetch warm clothes, blankets, and tea. Famous Belorussian artists, singers, and intellectuals are giving speeches and playing music. And the air is festive. Balloons are being sent into the air and people are hopeful. This is the latest as of 8:30 p.m. Minsk time. Lipsky’s report was at 7:30. This makes me very hopeful. RFE/RL confirms at least 15,000 people and the call to stay all night.

THE TENTS GO UP: Preparing for a long night. Or maybe even longer.

Still waiting on more. Charter 97 is currently being DDoSed again by the government. But Neeka has a string of updates with translations of Belarussian LiveJournal users who have interesting reports from the ground. Ivan Lenin has a more worrisome report, saying that several thousand protestors have surrounded the tents so that police cannot take them. And there is a rumor going around that in half an hour, the protestors will be brutally attacked.

This Guardian article says that, and it is corroborated by other LiveJournal reports, that busloads of troops were inunloaded at Karl Marx St. and have been stationing themselves in neighborhood squares to prevent people from going to October Square. No wonder not many more people are showing up. Charter 97 is still down, but RFE/RL correspondents say that according to its editors, RFE/RL is being reports are being broadcast to the square.

VIDEO: And lots of it. Click here to see footage of the protests from tonight.

FINALLY: Charter 97 is back up with news. It says that Milinkevich has invited Belarus State TV workers to report on the protest and has thanked the police for not getting involved. It was, of course, the broadcast of the protest in Ukraine’s Maidan by dissident state television reporters that got the word out better than anything. Right now many people in Belarus don’t even know this is going on. As Milinkevich says, all the television is showing is moustache. The police are also closing down grocery shops near the square so that people won’t have food, but it looks like people are trying to get it from home anyway. It is saying that the number of tents is growing rapidly.

10 As of this update, the police tried to sieze the electric generator sustaining the concert in the square. However, Milinkevich talked to them and they left, with demonstrators chanting, “Polce with the people!”

ALL-NIGHTER: The sound equipment has been turned off and the opposition did this deliberately. Milinkevich said that it was to preserve the public order. They are doing as much as they can to maintain the moral high ground, and even though some police have provoked fights, protestors have not allowed anyone to be detained and have not fought back. Milinkevich has announced that several thousand people will camp out and hold the square all night and all tomorrow, and then there will be another mass meeting at 6:30 again tomorrow.

One problem though. Charter 97 is back up and is saying that Milinkevich’s two sons have been gone for forty minutes after leaving to look for food, their cars are empty, and their cell phones are not answering. In effect, they have disappeared and nobody knows where they are. Hopefully nothing has happened to them.

It’s going to be a long night of rumors and news and hope. Want some tea?

12:30: Alright, Milinkevich’s sons have been released. They were detained and charged with petty hooliganism at the polie department, but as soon as the police colonel found out who they are, he tore up the report and escorted them back to the square. There are still several thousand people at the square, but the police are basically blockading anyone else from entering with food and things to warm the activists up. Br23 blog has posted and says that while there are less people due to the blockade, they are more determined than ever. It’s going to be a long night.

UH OH: Translating from the Belorussion LiveJournal community, Ivan Lenin translates a post at 1:18a.m. saying that the police that have blockaded the square throughout the night have been given the order to make sure the square is clear of protestors.

WHEW, AGAIN: Ivan Lenin translates a few more LiveJournal posts from nearly 2 a.m. saying that while nobody can enter the square, they police haven’t moved in either, so it’s likely going to be the same number of people staying overnight especially since the mass transit is down. People are only being arrested if they leave alone. It seems like these guys are in for the long haul and will hopefully be an inspiration to others. People have obviously been trying to reach the square all night but have been prevented from doing so by the police. They’ve been called to meet again at 6:30 again tomorrow night. Let’s hope they do.

 

[Annie]

From night into approaching day...Links at site:

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=2367

3/21/2006
Filed under:

* Revolutions
* Eastern Europe
* Belarus

—
“OUR PROTEST WILL BE LONG AND POWERFUL!”

A thousand or so Belorussian freedom fighters camped out in October Square all night without much food, tea, or things to keep them warm. Because the police wouldn’t let anyone help or join them. They survived the below-freezing temperatures and the threat of a bloodbath. These protestors swore to be there for good and they are, holding their ground all night and now all day. Having survived, what happens next is crucial.

The protest on March 20 seemed to gain, in physical numbers, only about half the number of people as on election night. There were likely no more than 6000 people at any one time.

That’s because an even stronger force of riot police than the night before unloaded at Karl Marx St. and dispersed throughout neighborhoods surrounding October Square, preventing pedestrians from joining the current protestors. When people left to bring food, they would not be allowed to re-enter. Those not close to a group were arrested; some 110 people are now on trial. The authorities even shut down the trains. The sheer number of people trying to see what was going on and all of the cars that honked while passing by shows that these protests have awoken the Belorussian heart and mind to the idea that they are not all that different from the free people of the world.

Milinkevich has called the people out once more to rally at October Square today at 6:30 p.m. They will join the ardent activists who stayed all night and set up a small tent city. The success of the actual gathering will depend on if people can physically reach the square. But regardless of what happens today, thousands of people have finally connected with each other like they never have before. These connections will continue to grow between likeminded people until one day — if not now, then eventually — Belarus is free.

The government is afraid of this and is trying to keep people as separate as possible. Instead of launching DDoS attacks on opposition news site Charter 97 as it did the previous two days, it has blocked access to the site in Belarus completely. But the story lives on, as LiveJournal users are quickly spreading the word. And through imagery, they post photos by the dozen using Flickr. By internet and mobile phone, though the government controls the media outright, democratic opposition activists are spreading the word about what is happening in October Square. No matter how much the government tries to stop it, these events will go down in history as the beginning of a long sequence that eventually leads to Lukashenko’s downfall.

In exactly an hour and a half from now, we will see if Milinkevich’s call will be heeded, or if it will be allowed to be heeded. Until then, stay tuned. We have another long day of blogging ahead of us.

*****

The protestors made it through the morning and the day. Ivan Lenin translates some LiveJournal users that say that, in the early hours before the break of dawn, the mood is good and the police will have to end their barricade when the city awakens. It is just past 6:30 p.m. now, which means the rally should already be under way. Meanwhile, the European Parliament itself has declared the elections undemocratic and has demanded a repeat election. Stay tuned for more updates immediately.

It must be beginning, because Charter 97 is now suffering a DDoS attack. Take a look at these conversations with people on the square.

8:00: Just about everything is down right now and nobody I can tell has really updated. BelaPAN says that the crowd in October Square started swelling even before 6:30, Milinkevich has addressed the crowd, and protestors are emanding Lukashenko’s resignation. As of right now it is an hour and a half past when the protests officially started and yet information is going through a black-out. We must continue to wait and see.

FINALLY: Charter 97 has an update from 7 p.m. that is finally up, saying that around 5000 people are on the square and the amplifying equipment is being brought out. According to it, along with two LiveJournal users, a dozen OMAN (special forces) buses are arriving at the square. We do not know whether this is a rotation of guard or not, but according to the rumors they are tasked with destroying the tent camp as soon as the journalists leave. Even more, they are not to arrest Milinkevich and Kozulin, just everyone else, so it appears that their support is dwindling. European diplomats are also wandering around the square giving support to the demonstrators.

Another post at around 7:45 says that Milinkevich has spoken and said that everyone is to meet on October Square on March 25, which is Freedom Day in Belarus. The day commemorates when the Belarus People’s Republic was created when under occupation by the Germans. While the government does not celebrate it for this reason, opposition forces always use it as a chance to demonstrate. I covered the protest exactly one year ago, when only about 300-400 people were able to go to October Square. They had been refused a permit because the square, according to the authorities, “is not designed for events involving more than 1,000 people.”

Damn, have they been proven wrong! Back then, even with protest babes afoot, they were beaten up and arrested within minutes. Now they’re protesting for days. In just a year, the political atmosphere has changed because of the democratic opposition’s bravery. While they might not succeed in forcing new election — and those chances are very slim — in the least they have created the conditions to where Lukashenko will never be able to rule as brutally as he did before.

THE LATEST: The AP finally gets something up.

A defiant opposition leader urged supporters camped in a freezing central square Tuesday night to keep up their daily demonstrations against authoritarian Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, who was re-elected in voting widely denounced as a farce.

Opposition leader Alexander Milinkevich also called for a large show of strength on Saturday.

“We will stay here until the 25th, and on the 25th we will gather here to fight for our future,” Milinkevich told the crowd on the third day of protests of Sunday’s election that gave Lukashenko five more years in power. “Come here every day to speak of freedom.”

Speaking in the glow from TV cameras after lighting on Oktyabrskaya Square was shut off, Milinkevich said that “the authorities want to destroy this small city of freedom” - referring to a tent camp where dozens of demonstrators spent the night. “We will not let them do it.”

Milinkevich had said earlier that he planned to urge demonstrators to end their unprecedented three-day protest later Tuesday and resume it on Saturday. But when he arrived at the square, he made no call for the tents to be removed and stressed protests should be kept up.

Halting the daily protests could have led to a loss of momentum, and removal of the tent camp could have been seen as ceding the square - both symbolically and physically - to the authorities.

So it looks like October Square is going to be held permanently, regardless of how many people are able to stay, until Saturday. Which means Saturday is the big day. It’s around 10:15 over there now and Charter 97 hasn’t made an update, and neither has anyone else. It looks like this could be it in terms of news for now, but if there’s anything else I’ll make an update.

According to the Belarus briefing I received in my email from the Pontis Foundation notes that while the police were searching bags of pedestrians to make sure they weren’t bringing the protestors food, they left the scene immediately once the European diplomats arrived. The busing of special police into the area occurred as a redeployment once the diplomats left.

OPPOSITION SPLIT, KIND OF: Opposition candidate and career politician Kozulin held a meeting with Milinkevich in which they agreed upon things like the need to come back out on Saturday. However, they disagreed upon staying. When Kozulin heard that Milinkevich would stay on the square, he called on his supporters to go home. But they did not leave. The link above has translations of LiveJournal users chronicling the occurence and notes that the opposition’s weak spot has been the leadership. Kozulin is an opportunist and Milinkevich is something of a professional oppositionist; that is, he is perceived as not needing to gain power because he will receive aid from the West regardless. It is important to note, however, that despite Kozulin’s call to go home, the tent city is staying.

11:00: People are still on the square being festive, singing songs, and reading poetry. Charter 97 reports that some 7000 people were on the square and that Milinkevich will be staying with those in the tent city again tonight, at least until morning.

The big thing that struck my mind is the reports that the crowd was shouting “Shame on Putin!” Most of the colored revolutions have been very nationalist in nature, this protest being no exception. They have played Belorussian songs, read Belorussian poetry, and waved the old national Belorussian flag. The main reason that the United States is encouraging democracy and human rights in countries like Belarus is because we want the people to like us, not just arbitrary strongman governments that may not last forever. Russia’s problem is that, in it’s seeking of a multi-polar world where American isn’t the only number one, it is getting way to many oddball allies. In the process, it is alienating people and pushing them toward the other side. Who knows? The future may be full of people who are anti-Russia and anti-China because of their totalitarian-supporting policies.

12:30: LiveJournalist Lipski says that there are still about 1000 people on the square. It’s sub-zero, and the authorities have cut all of the electricity. But they’re still there. Ivan Lenin translates a report from Radio Svoda saying that they all plan to stay, though they know that tonight the police can use force to break the protest up. If they do, many women who stayed will be harmed as well. For some reason the Belorussian state television team is there. Perhaps to film something happening. All I know is that the weather is absolutely evil.

By the way, if anyone is interested, I’ve uploaded some more photos of protest babes here.

STILL GOING: Charter 97 notes around 2 a.m. that there are just a bit less than 2,000 people in the camp. Warm things like mittens, scarves, fur coats, food, and tea are being distributed. Guards searching for such things in bags were able to be circumvented by stuffing the things in one’s clothes. Milinkevich noted that there are more people staying tonight than there were the day before. They have a photo archive from the night here.

Meanwhile, the 108 opposition supporters who have been arrested in the past three days have been put on trial, with the authorities closing it to the public. Many sentences have already been passed. Hopefully this will spark outrage among the protestors and they will continue their fight for justice.

 

[Annie]

No one else seems to care much, guess they don't understand the connections?

http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=2370

3/22/2006
Filed under:

* Revolutions
* Eastern Europe
* Belarus

—
HOLDING THE FORT: WHAT TO EXPECT IN BELARUS

The ongoing protests in Belarus since Sunday leave much to be desired; that is, if you’re expecting a colored revolution immediately. Sunday saw well over 10,000 people rallying in October Square, about half that on Monday, and slightly more on Tuesday. You really can’t help but be down on it — the chances are slim to none. The mainstream media especially is hedging its bets against the protestors based on the dwindling numbers.

Due to ongoing news coverage, I haven’t really been able to get my thoughts down completely. Here they are. Though there may not be a revolution, here is why you should have hope.

The reason there are only a few hundred people left on the square is because those are the most fearless, most adamant demonstrators who have vowed to hold the square. Milinkevich has announced that Saturday, March 25, will be the day when everyone will return to the square. No matter what the immediate result, it will not be a finale, but the beginning of Lukashenko’s end. While the press is pessimistic on the numbers, it doesn’t go into the reasons why this is so. I’m not sure if these writers assume that Belarus is a country where people can freely organize or what, but there are many strategic factors impeding the protest.

Lukashenko has taken up a strategy rather different than that of Ukraine’s Kuchma — where the crowds were actually allowed to gather — or Uzbekistan’s Karimov — where the crowd was massacred. Instead of breaking up the protestors, he is simply blockading them. Riot police were sent to all surrounding neighborhoods to prevent anyone from joining the protest or bring the current demonstrators food. Likewise, if anyone left the protest, they’d be arrested immediately and not allowed to return. Police were also stationed at the train terminals, searching anyone who might have a tent or other materials that would help the opposition. That’s why the protest never grew to more than 7000 at time — nobody was allowed to join!

However, something can be said about the number of people trying to join. All of the people on October Square has friends and relatives trying to bring them food and warm things. Cars driving by honked in solidarity with them (the police are now fining people for this). Though the television is completely owned by the state and constantly broadcasted pro-Lukashenko propaganda, radio, internet, telephone, and word of mouth got out news about the demonstration and opposers to Lukashenko’s rule slowly began to stream in from the outlaying regions. But they were stopped.

The real number of protestors are much greater than those who have physically been able to make it to the square. Due to the tactics that Lukashenko employs, and his overwhelming control of most media, he is able to make it appear to most people that the opposition rally is so “pathetic” that he isn’t even going to bother to clear them off the square.

Oppositionists have learned from the police tactics as well, however. Instead of trying to dodge police to get to the square in order to deliver supplies, they simply fly past it in their cars and throw them out the window. Others blend into the crowd so that they aren’t caught. The amount of chatter itself that has been able to circumvent Lukashenko’s censors has generated a movement behind the scenes of October Square itself.

The reason for the break is so the vast majority of supporters can go home, rest up, and organize more people. Whether or not March 25 will be successful is highly dependent on how far the police will go to prevent people from reaching the square. I highly doubt Lukashenko will massacre them — he is so highly backed by Russia, that the international outcry could not help but reach Putin’s doorstep. However, they will pull out all the stops. Trains will be cancelled, checkpoints will be set up, and stragglers will be secretly arrested. It is very important that they leave so that they can get the word out and organize more people, but the police will do everything they can to prevent them from returning so that they can pronounce the revolution a failure.

In the end, there is a very hopeful lesson to be learned from all of this. In just one year, Belarus has changed profoundly despite the actions of the regime. The rally on March 25 of last year was only able to bring out 300-400 people before the police beat and arrested dozens of them, including women. Protests then were short-lived phenomena. Because the protestors have been allowed to gather at all, the veil of fear has been lifted. People are actively organizing against the regime and taking moral fortitude in doing so. They are also making connections — friends — with one another for the future. Never before had anyone known who was on their side. Now they know that, in the very least, there are tens of thousands of people that they saw and met who stand with them.

That is why, while a colored revolution might not happen this time around, it is the beginning of the end for Lukashenko. It was the “Ukraine without Kuchma” movement in Ukraine at the turn of the millenium that, while numbering only a few thousand protestors, launched the behind-the-scenes campaign that soon resonated with the people and delivered the Orange Revolution only a few years later. The protests in October Square may be the beginning of just such an era.

One thing is for sure though. After this, Lukashenko will never be able to rule the same again.

*****

Just to give you an idea of the kind of support the protestors remaining on the square are getting, here is some of the latest news and translations.

Ivan Lenin translates reports from Radio Svaboda saying that around 10:00 p.m. today, there were around 3000 gatherers on the square offering support. People continued to bring food and hot liquids to them so that they can remain with their vigil. They were also able to sneak a few tents past the police blockade. There is also no more talk of leaving; they are there until the end. The weather has also improved somewhat and is actually looking to be much warmer by Saturday.

He also translates from LiveJournal user Lipski who says that people continue to avoid the police and bring food. Most importantly, there are a lot of such people.

Neeka is also diving into the Belorussian LiveJournals and finds stories of busloads of activists dashing out of buses to the square so as to avoid the police and bring supplies. Charter 97 further indicates that they will remain until the 25th.

The international community has been doing a lot, besides the threat of sanctions against the government, to encourage the activists to get out on the square. Poland has promised admission in its universities to any Belorussian student expelled because of political activities. The EU will also be extending sanctions far beyond that of top government officials. Those who will not be permitted to travel to Europe will include university officials in charge of expulsions, those involved in forging the vote count, and those who fired people for participating in the demonstrations.
Robert Mayer @ 11:29 am