Libya After Gaddafi Could Mean Good News For Obama, U.S. Economy

[High_Gravity]

Libya After Gaddafi Could Mean Good News For Obama, U.S. Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The dramatic advance of Libyan rebels over the forces of longtime strongman Muammar Gaddafi offers vindication, at least for now, for President Barack Obama's decision to refrain from using U.S. troops on Libyan soil and to let NATO take the lead in degrading Gaddafi's military power. But there are still hazards for the White House.

How the country moves from turmoil to stability presents a new challenge for Obama and could determine how the public views not only his foreign policy, but in some measure the economy as well.

Yet, the news for Obama on Monday could not have been better. The Libyan street was euphoric, Gaddafi was in hiding and the price of oil - a contributor to dangerous economic lethargy - was dropping.

"The Libyan intervention demonstrates what the international community can achieve when we stand together as one," Obama said at his vacation retreat in Martha's Vineyard, Mass.

Obama was careful to emphasize that uncertainty remained and that Gaddafi's regime could still pose a threat. What's more, it will take several months even under a stabilized Libya before its oil fields are producing enough crude to start exporting again. But any extra shipments could lower the price of gasoline, which has already come down more than 40 cents a gallon from its peak in May.

Back in March, Obama gambled that the way to confront a potential civilian catastrophe in Libya was to build a coalition of NATO and Arab countries to use airpower ostensibly to protect Libyan citizens from a Gaddafi crackdown. But his intent was clear all along: Gaddafi had to go.

The Libyan leader was deemed a sponsor of terrorism, and his regime in 1986 was found responsible for bombing a Berlin discotheque frequented by U.S. troops. Three people died in the explosion. Two years later, a Libyan agent planted a bomb that blew up Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.

The uprising in Libya follows the death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of U.S. special operations troops, a major achievement for the Obama administration and one that solidified the president's standing with the public on his handling of terrorism.

But Gaddafi's removal has additional implications. A stabilized Libya would mean the country's oil production could go back online, potentially reducing the cost of oil, which spiked globally in February as the flow of oil from Libya dried to a trickle.

Time and again, the president has cited the uprisings in the Arab world and the increased cost of oil as "headwinds" that have imperiled the economic recovery.

Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa. Before the uprising, it was the world's 12th largest exporter, delivering more than 1.5 million barrels per day mostly to European markets.

The news of the rebels' success was affecting Brent crude, which is used to price many international oil varieties, dropping 92 cents to $107.70 per barrel in London.

"If oil prices continue to head south, that's a real plus for the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "We can take all the plusses we can get at this point."

So could Obama. While the president's overall approval with the public is above 40 percent in most polls, the number that approve of his handling of the economy dropped to a new low of 26 percent in a Gallup poll last week. By contrast, 53 percent approved of his handling of terrorism.

Still, the joy expressed in the streets of Tripoli Monday overshadowed two lingering questions: What's next, and could a more aggressive U.S. involvement have knocked Gaddafi from power much sooner?

In a statement issued late Sunday, Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said they regretted that "this success was so long in coming due to the failure of the United States to employ the full weight of our airpower."

"Ultimately, our intervention in Libya will be judged a success or failure based not on the collapse of the Gaddafi regime, but on the political order that emerges in its place," the two senators said.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, expressed a similar view.

"The lasting impact of events in Libya will depend on ensuring rebel factions form a unified, civil government that guarantees personal freedoms, and builds a new relationship with the West where we are allies instead of adversaries," he said.

Libya After Gaddafi Could Mean Good News For Obama, U.S. Economy

 

[flacaltenn]

It's probably good news for relieving diplomatic pressures in the Mideast, but less important to the longer term economic problems that we have.

For EUROPE -- it will open up trade and investments in Libya and THEY will see a diff if the new govt is truely stable and open. Similiar deal for Egypt except that they were seen as much more stable BEFORE their revolution..

 

[High_Gravity]

It's probably good news for relieving diplomatic pressures in the Mideast, but less important to the longer term economic problems that we have.

For EUROPE -- it will open up trade and investments in Libya and THEY will see a diff if the new govt is truely stable and open. Similiar deal for Egypt except that they were seen as much more stable BEFORE their revolution..

Anyway we can get in on this action in Libya? theres alot of juicy oil contracts out there.

 

[flacaltenn]

Why just oil? In a more open govt with the right attitude towards business -- even consumer goods would be flowing into a country starved for freedom.. And there's a workforce present there that's just as convienient as our Mexican buds south of our border..

Arab countries know that there's more to life than oil.. That's why they are revolting..

 

[High_Gravity]

Why just oil? In a more open govt with the right attitude towards business -- even consumer goods would be flowing into a country starved for freedom.. And there's a workforce present there that's just as convienient as our Mexican buds south of our border..

Arab countries know that there's more to life than oil.. That's why they are revolting..

Yeah you are right, Libya can be a pretty fine country to do business with in the right hands.

 

[flacaltenn]

When you listen these people in Libya, Egypt, Syria, ect.. you hear this common desire for freedom. Given that these are Islamist states that will STILL insist on Sharia law -- they are not fundamentally talking about SOCIAL freedoms as we know them.. I think their vision is larger economic freedom. Where the Govt is not the sole employer. Where oil isn't the only source of national income. Where their universities can turn out a whole spectrum of scholars that open new businesses and ventures. Where they can have a Muslim version of the Miss America contest. (ok that's over the edge).

They will still obey their Muslim roots -- but they are done with economic totalitarism.
And if we look at them and what they've done and only see "oil" --- it's no wonder they hate us so much. ((So our leftists buds better stop stereotyping these folks and claiming that oil can be our only possible interest -- or they won't want to deal with us))...

 

[Stephanie]

Huffington post folks.

NOW WAR FOR OIL is a good thing...

remember the signs the ANTI-WAR protesters carried during the Iraq WAR.

what a frikken bunch of two faced hypocrites

 

[CrusaderFrank]

War for Oil, where have I heard that before?

 

[mudwhistle]

Obama says it will be good.

Egypt has, contrary to what everyone thought, fallen into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood and is drifting into another Theocracy.

All of these countries can very easily become radical Islamic states. They will become a threat to the West.

Sorry, but I have to be a realist.

 

[High_Gravity]

When you listen these people in Libya, Egypt, Syria, ect.. you hear this common desire for freedom. Given that these are Islamist states that will STILL insist on Sharia law -- they are not fundamentally talking about SOCIAL freedoms as we know them.. I think their vision is larger economic freedom. Where the Govt is not the sole employer. Where oil isn't the only source of national income. Where their universities can turn out a whole spectrum of scholars that open new businesses and ventures. Where they can have a Muslim version of the Miss America contest. (ok that's over the edge).

They will still obey their Muslim roots -- but they are done with economic totalitarism.
And if we look at them and what they've done and only see "oil" --- it's no wonder they hate us so much. ((So our leftists buds better stop stereotyping these folks and claiming that oil can be our only possible interest -- or they won't want to deal with us))...

I think you pretty much nailed it, for the people in these countries the word freedom doesn't mean the same thing as it does for us in the west.

 

[High_Gravity]

Obama says it will be good.

Egypt has, contrary to what everyone thought, fallen into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood and is drifting into another Theocracy.

All of these countries can very easily become radical Islamic states. They will become a threat to the West.

Sorry, but I have to be a realist.

Well the Egyptians are not as sophisticated as some people give them credit for, so I am not surprised they are leaning towards an Islamic theocracy. I hear what you are saying though, the smart money is on these countries becoming religious theocracies.

 

[waltky]

Getting Libya's oil industry back on track...

Some Looking Forward to Recovery of Libyan Oil Production
August 24, 2011 - Although fighting continues in parts of Libya, and a bit of uncertainty remains, some are already beginning to look at the prospects of recovery. Oil companies, and countries that rely on imports of natural resources from Libya, are planning for the full restoration of the country's oil industry.

As opposition forces celebrate their capture of Moammar Gadhafi's headquarters compound, the work of rebuilding Libya’s war-ravaged cities and infrastructure is one of a host of challenges the country will have to deal with in the days ahead. Oil is the country's key industry and getting oil production and exports back on-line is crucial. Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa and before the uprising began, the country produced about 1.8 million barrels of oil a day, or about two percent of the world’s production. Luckily, unlike the damage suffered by cities and towns, the oil industry appears to be largely unscathed.

Samuel Ciszuk, a senior Middle East analyst at IHS Energy, says Libya could quickly return to pre-war production levels. "Companies with large production capacity in Libya, for instance ENI but also companies like Repsol and so on which have a lot of facilities in the southwest as far as we know has escaped damage almost completely," he said. No one will know for sure how long it will take until the country's export and production facilities are inspected and back on line. Over the past several days, global oil prices have largely followed developments in Libya. As Moammar Gadhafi's grip on power began slipping, following the rebels' quick offensive into Tripoli, prices dropped. But then began rising as pockets of fighting persisted and as other global economic volatility put pressure on the cost of crude. Most of the Libya’s oil is exported to Europe, with Italy receiving the largest portion by far. China and other countries are major importers as well.

Ahmed Jehani, chairman of the stabilization team of Libya’s National Transition Council, says oil agreements made before the Gadhafi government's downfall will be honored. "All contracts will be honored. All lawful contracts will be offered, whether they are in the oil and gas complex or in the contracting. At the moment it is not for this government to decide whether they will be revoking any contract," he said. The international community has expressed its readiness to come to Libya's aid and help it rebuild. And the United nations is holding a meeting on Libya’s future later this week. Libya's infrastructure was weak before the war started, some regional analysts note, so the amount of reconstruction needed is limited. But building up a new Libya will take money.

Michele Dunne, who heads the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council, says that is something Libya is well prepared for. “Libya will not face the problem that some other countries have had because they’ll have ready money to pay for it. If you’ve got ready money to pay for the reconstruction, then its much less of a problem," he said. A quick return of oil production will help, Dunne says. As will the return to Libya of billions of dollars worth of Moammar Gadhafi’s frozen assets overseas. The assets were frozen by the U.N. in February and now the international community is working to get the urgently needed funds to the anti-Gadhafi opposition as soon as possible.

Source

 

[waltky]

Kinda late don't ya think?...

Libya: Col Gaddafi 'offers talks on power transfer'
28 August 2011 - The opposition has to tackle widespread shortages

Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi is ready to begin talks to transfer power, according to his spokesman. He told a news agency discussions would be led by Col Gaddafi's son, Saadi. Rebel fighters who now control most of the country, including the capital Tripoli, believe Col Gaddafi is still in hiding in the area.

The BBC's Jon Leyne says the latest offer will be seen as just another sign of the delusional state of Col Gaddafi and his followers. The Libyan opposition says supplies of fuel and water should begin arriving in Tripoli - amid fears that Tripoli's water supply may have been poisoned by Col Gaddafi's forces.

Meanwhile more evidence is emerging of mass killings in the country. More than 50 charred bodies have been found in a burnt out warehouse next to a military base south of the capital.

BBC News - Libya: Col Gaddafi 'offers talks on power transfer'

 

[editec]

One hopes that as Libya recovers the price of natural gas will drop.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

One hopes that as Libya recovers the price of natural gas will drop.

Progressives/Democrat/Marxists insist that oil is the one commodity impervious to the laws of supply and demand, at least as it related to the US increasing supply. They say is with conviction too which which means they are totally without the capacity for independent thought

 

[editec]

One hopes that as Libya recovers the price of natural gas will drop.

Progressives/Democrat/Marxists insist that oil is the one commodity impervious to the laws of supply and demand, at least as it related to the US increasing supply. They say is with conviction too which which means they are totally without the capacity for independent thought

Do they?

Well they're wrong if they think that.

There is certainly some elasticity in the price of oil.

Not as much as with many itens, but certainly as the price rises demand decreases.

 

[Avorysuds]

We'll have to see how it all plays out... Something tells me if Obama talks about Libya much it will hurt him more than help him, even if there is good news. People voted for less war, not to have Obama brag about how his new wars are going...


Chances are we will be there for a long time spending shit tons of money to help keep that country stable and politicians will say "we can’t just pull out and let the country collapse when we helped get them into this situation."

 

[daveman]

When you listen these people in Libya, Egypt, Syria, ect.. you hear this common desire for freedom. Given that these are Islamist states that will STILL insist on Sharia law -- they are not fundamentally talking about SOCIAL freedoms as we know them.. I think their vision is larger economic freedom. Where the Govt is not the sole employer. Where oil isn't the only source of national income. Where their universities can turn out a whole spectrum of scholars that open new businesses and ventures. Where they can have a Muslim version of the Miss America contest. (ok that's over the edge).

They will still obey their Muslim roots -- but they are done with economic totalitarism.
And if we look at them and what they've done and only see "oil" --- it's no wonder they hate us so much. ((So our leftists buds better stop stereotyping these folks and claiming that oil can be our only possible interest -- or they won't want to deal with us))...

I think you pretty much nailed it, for the people in these countries the word freedom doesn't mean the same thing as it does for us in the west.

 

[flacaltenn]

But Uncle Dave.. That masked man is on the LOSING side of the mob..

Ya big kill-joy...

At least I hope -- he is....

 

[daveman]

But Uncle Dave.. That masked man is on the LOSING side of the mob..

Ya big kill-joy...

At least I hope -- he is....

It doesn't speak well for the future of Western civilization if he and his fellow gonna-party-like-it's-799'ers have their way.