Let's be Real: The Right will nominate Romney

ClosedCaption

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And they will support him. That has been the plan from the beginning, the debates are just GOP theater.
 

Grampa Murked U

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I hope not but I suspect you are right. He still won't get my vote in the primaries though.
 

Dr.Traveler

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The danger of being the front runner at this point is that if you perform poorly or get a surprise in an early state, you're toast. Ask Hillary or Giuliani how being the early front runners worked out for them.

I suspect that Romney will be the nominee, but I think there's a lot of potential for surprise in Iowa or New Hampshire. You could see Romney and Perry "annihilate" each other in Iowa and set up a real surprise result. If Romney wins there he'll probably steam roll down the line. Nevada is typically his playground, Florida looks favorable to him, etc. But if he loses there the field will change dramatically.

If the nominee isn't Romney, I'd bet good money that Newt ends up the nominee. At this point Perry isn't going to win, at best he's the spoiler for Romney. Cain is starting to lose momentum....which isn't good when you were just the flavor of the month. Bachmann is flat out insane, and Santorum is...well... Santorum. And Huntsman is completely unknown.

A lot will depend on Iowa.
 

Lakhota

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Romney isn't crazy enought for the right. Plus he's a Mormon devil.
 

ladyliberal

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Romney's nomination is only the most likely outcome, nothing like a certainty. Intrade gives him about 67% odds now, and that seems about right to me. Perry, Cain, or someone else could plausibly win the nomination.

So the odds of a non-Romney winning are about 33%. In comparison, the odds of Obama capturing the nomination at this point in the 2008 cycle were about 10% and McCain's were even worse (The Big Picture), so stranger things happen all the time.

If Romney does capture the nomination, I think the right will largely line up behind him. I'm sure that the enthusiasm level will be lower among Evangelicals and similar voters than if Perry had the nomination, but not enough to dramatically affect turnout. The only thing that could really shake this up would be a third-party candidate, which I rate unlikely.
 

Avatar4321

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Romney isn't crazy enought for the right. Plus he's a Mormon devil.
The right isn't looking for crazy people. We are looking for intelligent and competent leaders.
 

Dr.Traveler

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Romney isn't crazy enought for the right. Plus he's a Mormon devil.
The fringe isn't in control of the GOP any more than the fringe left was control of the DNC in 2004. When there's an incumbent in office the early states tend to pick the candidate that has the best chance in the General. There's a lot of reasons that happens, cross over votes, depressed primary turnouts, etc.

If Romney ends up looking like the best candidate to take on Obama he'll likely win. If you're a GOP candidate now the name of the game is to pull Romney down to your level. Romney's done a good job of keeping above the fight for the most part, so he could easily end up the nominee.
 

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Dr.Traveler

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In comparison, the odds of Obama capturing the nomination at this point in the 2008 cycle were about 10% and McCain's were even worse (The Big Picture), so stranger things happen all the time.
McCain is especially worth mentioning, because smart money months before Iowa was that he was toast. His campaign was broke, and it was considered an open secret that he'd bow out and transfer support to Fred Thompson. Anything is possible.
 

Immanuel

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Let's be real: If Romney is nominated by the Republicans, it won't be the right that nominates him. It will be the media, the moderates and the liberals that switch parties for the primaries that nominate him.

Immie
 

Dr.Traveler

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2008.

Alittle misguided but still intelligent and competent.
It doesn't help that McCain got stabbed in the back by Bush. McCain had maybe two really salient policy points where he differed from Obama. One was Iraq, and in the closing days of the campaign Bush ended up negotiating a timetable for withdraw leaving McCain up the creek on that issue.*

Toss in the TARP bill that Bush pushed through and McCain suddenly found himself in real trouble.

*The other, for the record, was Health care. And Obamacare ended up taking a lot more from McCain's playbook than Obama's playbook. C'est la Vie.
 

Dr.Traveler

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Let's be real: If Romney is nominated by the Republicans, it won't be the right that nominates him. It will be the media, the moderates and the liberals that switch parties for the primaries that nominate him.

Immie
You mean it won't be the Far Right that nominates him. It'll be the moderate Republicans acting in concert with the Party machinery. And you can understand why they'd nominate him. Romney is well funded, smart, and delivers policy and talking points in a straight forward likable manner. He's pretty clearly Presidential. Considering once he's elected he'll have to work with legislators that will owe more to the Tea Party than to his coat tails, his policy issues are practically moot.

I still think he could end up falling short, because typically the front runners at this stage of the game don't fare as well as people expect. But if he wins, I'll certainly understand why. And it's likely I'll vote for him. Something I can't say about a lot of the rest of the field.
 

paulitician

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Not too sure about the right but the Republican Party might nominate him. There is a difference.
 

JoeB131

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And they will support him. That has been the plan from the beginning, the debates are just GOP theater.
Actually, the Republican Establishment will nominate him, and several things will follow.

The Evangelicals still won't vote for a Mormon. Or anyone with a brain, for that matter.

Those moderates that everyone claims are just waiting to vote GOP will end up supporting Obama again.

Obama will win by an even larger margin in 2012 than he did in 2008.
 

JoeB131

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2008.

Alittle misguided but still intelligent and competent.
It doesn't help that McCain got stabbed in the back by Bush. McCain had maybe two really salient policy points where he differed from Obama. One was Iraq, and in the closing days of the campaign Bush ended up negotiating a timetable for withdraw leaving McCain up the creek on that issue.*

Toss in the TARP bill that Bush pushed through and McCain suddenly found himself in real trouble.

*The other, for the record, was Health care. And Obamacare ended up taking a lot more from McCain's playbook than Obama's playbook. C'est la Vie.
I think the state of the economy weighed more on McCain's failure than Iraq.

The thing is, Iraq was an irrelevent issue by 2008. Fatalities were down to nothing and no one was really talking about it.

I think what killed McCain was that the GOP never really wanted him to start with. Just like they really don't want Romney, but the Establishment shoved him down our throats because it was "his turn". (And because all the alternatives sucked a bit more.)

Like now, they operated on the delusion that there is this huge mass in the middle just waiting for someone who is squishy moderate with no moral convictions just like them, and if the GOP can just nominate someone who didn't actually stand for anything, the votes would follow.

Which is horseshit. Republican do well when they nominate REAL conservatives, not moderates looking to please voters who aren't there.
 

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