Lebanon: Looks Like the Massive Demonstration Worked

[Annie]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050315/wl_nm/lebanon_dc

Syrian Intelligence Agents Complete Beirut Pullout

40 minutes ago

By Nadim Ladki

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian intelligence agents moved out of their Beirut headquarters early on Wednesday, witnesses said, a step toward meeting U.S. and Lebanese opposition demands for an end to Syria's tutelage over its small neighbor.

The witnesses said a bulldozer demolished two guard posts, trucks loaded with office equipment drove away and the last intelligence officers left the headquarters in the seafront Ramlet al-Baida district.

The Syrians had also removed pictures of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his late father Hafez from around the building before driving away.

Syria's often feared intelligence apparatus has been a key element in its political and military influence on Lebanon since its troops first intervened early in the 1975-90 civil war.

A Lebanese security source said he expected all Syrian intelligence agents in Beirut, the north and the Mount Lebanon area overlooking the capital, to have moved to eastern Lebanon by Wednesday night. He put their number at 150 to 200.

For now Syrian intelligence retains its Lebanon headquarters in the Bekaa Valley town of Anjar, but the closure of the Beirut office indicated that Syrian forces have almost completed the first phase of a withdrawal from Lebanon announced 10 days ago.

Syria agreed to move its troops after the Feb. 14 killing of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri sparked fierce anti-Syrian protests in Beirut and global calls for the Syrians to leave.

President Bush (news - web sites) called on the Shi'ite Muslim Hizbollah guerrilla group to prove it was not a terrorist organization by laying down its arms and working for peace.

"We view Hizbollah as a terrorist organization and I would hope that Hizbollah would prove that they're not by laying down arms and not threatening peace," Bush told reporters on Tuesday with Jordan's King Abdullah at his side.

Hizbollah brought out hundreds of thousands of people on the streets of Beirut last week in support of Syria, showing it has massive support in Lebanon. It also has members in parliament and runs charities.

PROTEST

Around 3,000 pro-Syrian students chanting "Death to America" marched on the U.S. embassy near Beirut on Tuesday, burning Israeli and American flags and denouncing what they say is Washington's interference in Lebanon.

The crowd chanted: "Ambassador leave, keep our country free," in reference to U.S. envoy Jeffrey Feltman.

Scores of Lebanese soldiers and riot police, backed by armored troop carriers, put up metal barricades and barbed wire to keep the protesters away from the embassy complex in Awkar, north of Beirut, but the protest went off peacefully.

Lebanese security sources say the Syrians will complete the first stage of their pullout in the next couple of days. More than 4,000 soldiers returned to Syria last week, while 2,000 more were redeploying eastwards to the Bekaa Valley.

The dismantling of the intelligence headquarters and another Syrian intelligence office in Beirut coincided with a visit to Damascus by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (news - web sites) and efforts by Lebanon's pro-Syrian Prime Minister-designate Omar Karami to form a unity government to defuse the political crisis.

Mubarak met Assad, who is under intense Lebanese, Arab and world pressure for a full withdrawal. Syrian media said they discussed Lebanon but gave no details. Mubarak later flew home.

Karami, forced to resign on Feb. 28 but reappointed last week, met politicians and parliamentary blocs on Tuesday on the make-up of a new cabinet to lead Lebanon to elections in May.

Opposition MPs gave him a list of demands, including an international investigation into Hariri's killing and the sacking of Syrian-backed security chiefs, saying these must be met before they would discuss joining any government.

If Karami fails, it could delay the parliamentary polls because a new government must be in place to ask the assembly to pass an electoral law at least a month before the election.

A U.N. fact-finding team finished its probe into the killing of Hariri on Tuesday and will report its findings to Secretary-General Kofi Annan (news - web sites) soon.

Hundreds of thousands of flag-waving anti-Syrian protesters flooded central Beirut on Monday in Lebanon's biggest rally since Hariri's assassination in a bomb blast a month earlier.

Several opposition leaders, including Druze chief Walid Jumblatt, called for the resignation of Lahoud and Lebanese security chiefs, whom they accuse of playing a part in Hariri's death. Damascus denies any involvement. (Additional reporting by Roula Najem in Beirut and Inal Ersan in Damascus)

 

[nosarcasm]

Is the deal something like that, Hizbollah gets off the terrorist list
for free and fair elections, no questions asked.

Let them go down in everyday politics and let democracy sort
out the terrorist ?

 

[Annie]

Is the deal something like that, Hizbollah gets off the terrorist list
for free and fair elections, no questions asked.

Let them go down in everyday politics and let democracy sort
out the terrorist ?

I'm really unsure what is going to happen with Hezbollah. The Syrian members I think will be sent there. Still leaves a lot of Lebanese. I think it's a terror group and should be treated as such.

 

[nosarcasm]

well no doubt they are mainly an Iranian supported terror group.

But in the world of politics that doesnt mean that part of them
a Lebanese first and might go for a democratic election.

This might correct their terrorist roots (at least so I hope)
and involve them in the political process to set up
a democratic government where all races are involved.

This would hopefully avoid the prospect of a civil war
and in the long term pacify the region.

Once in power the anti semetic bs wont stand up and in
order to compete in a democratic process they would have
to think what is best for Lebanon first and not be the instrument
of the Iranian and Syrians.

I think we have not much too loose by encouraging the process.

In the worst case another civil war brakes out and we support
the Sunni, Christian opposition.

In the best case their terrorist motiviations are replaced by the
the democratic process of having to get Lebanon out of the ashes.

A lot of blood was shed there so thats why I think there is
a window of opportunity.

Bush has to make clear that anti democratic forces will face
the wrath of the Us and for now we ll stay neutral but
if they go for a powerplay we will support the opposition
with money and hardware.

 

[Annie]

well no doubt they are mainly an Iranian supported terror group.

But in the world of politics that doesnt mean that part of them
a Lebanese first and might go for a democratic election.

This might correct their terrorist roots (at least so I hope)
and involve them in the political process to set up
a democratic government where all races are involved.

This would hopefully avoid the prospect of a civil war
and in the long term pacify the region.

Once in power the anti semetic bs wont stand up and in
order to compete in a democratic process they would have
to think what is best for Lebanon first and not be the instrument
of the Iranian and Syrians.

I think we have not much too loose by encouraging the process.

In the worst case another civil war brakes out and we support
the Sunni, Christian opposition.

In the best case their terrorist motiviations are replaced by the
the democratic process of having to get Lebanon out of the ashes.

A lot of blood was shed there so thats why I think there is
a window of opportunity.

Bush has to make clear that anti democratic forces will face
the wrath of the Us and for now we ll stay neutral but
if they go for a powerplay we will support the opposition
with money and hardware.

Last paragraph, 'we're' being the US, not Germany, right?

 

[nosarcasm]

Germany has no influence or power to call the shots.

I know that much.

But Bush with his policies has an opening now, but it is not
easy, as the last 100 years of arab policy shows.

I am not sure what way to go to be truthful.

What would you suggest?

 

[Annie]

Germany has no influence or power to call the shots.

I know that much.

But Bush with his policies has an opening now, but it is not
easy, as the last 100 years of arab policy shows.

I am not sure what way to go to be truthful.

What would you suggest?

Personally, I think Bush should stick with Hezbollah is a terror organization, but can 'turn it around.' We'll see about that. As far as Syria goes, think it will implode is they lose Lebanon. Whether Lebanon will spiral into civil war? Hmm, have they learned anything? Hmmm???

 

[nosarcasm]

Well with Lebanon possibly going democratic (in a loose sense)
Syria will face intense internal pressure.

This is a real good opening. And Bush should sent in the hated French
to facilitate the deal. The west should try its best.

If Syria cracks it would be a paradigm change that will go through
the Arab world.

Not that they stop hating us but semi-democratic governments will
be staying away from open or covert confrontation with the west.

The non terror group think might be a good carrot, a payoff if
Hezbollah plays after democratic rules. I am not sure if they are
interested, but after decades of war their followers sure are.

 

[Annie]

Well with Lebanon possibly going democratic (in a loose sense)
Syria will face intense internal pressure.

This is a real good opening. And Bush should sent in the hated French
to facilitate the deal. The west should try its best.

If Syria cracks it would be a paradigm change that will go through
the Arab world.

Not that they stop hating us but semi-democratic governments will
be staying away from open or covert confrontation with the west.

The non terror group think might be a good carrot, a payoff if
Hezbollah plays after democratic rules. I am not sure if they are
interested, but after decades of war their followers sure are.

Syria will fall because their wealth has come from the puppet state. Syria will not be able to employ those returning, especially the army. Assad doesn't have that great a grip already, he's been propped up by those that were loyal to his daddy.

Assad chose wrong when he back Saddam, he is going to go down like the other.

 

[Annie]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/story/0,13031,1438684,00.html

Bush takes softer line with Hizbullah

Brian Whitaker in Beirut and Ewen MacAskill
Wednesday March 16, 2005
The Guardian

George Bush has signalled a softer line towards the Lebanese-based Hizbullah militia, calling on it to turn its back on violence and take a political path.
Encouraged by Israel, the US had until yesterday taken an uncompromising line on Hizbullah, which the president regularly refers to as a terrorist organisation. Like the Israeli government, Mr Bush refused to make a distinction between its armed wing and its political movement.

But Mr Bush, after meeting King Abdullah of Jordan in Washington yesterday, shifted from a ritual denunciation of Hizbullah to a hope that it might focus on politics. He said pointedly that Hizbullah's proscription in the US was based on activities in the past.

He said: "We view Hizbullah as a terrorist organisation and I would hope that Hizbullah would prove that they're not by laying down arms and not threatening peace." He added: "Hizbullah has been declared a terrorist organisation by the United States because of terrorist activities in the past."

Hizbullah is made up of Lebanese Shias and is supported mainly by Iran and, to a lesser extent, Syria. In 2000 it forced Israel to abandon southern Lebanon, and it continues intermittent attacks, mainly against an Israeli position at Shaaba farms, a disputed area on the Israeli-Lebanese-Syrian border. To many Arabs, it is a heroic resistance movement...

 

[nosarcasm]

precognition :arabia:

 

[Annie]

precognition :arabia:

:clap1: :clap1:

 

[Annie]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-3_16_05_AB.html

March 16, 2005
Democracy Is Winning In Lebanon - But It's Not Over Yet
By Austin Bay

For the moment, the struggle in Lebanon remains a battle of crowds and cameras -- and it's a battle pro-democracy demonstrators are winning.

But Western diplomats and their new allies in free Iraq know a bloodless democratic victory is no certainty. Syria and Iran fear democracy and peace, and their Lebanese stalking horse, Hezbollah, has guns and loyal fighters.

Beirut's demonstrations and counter-demonstrations serve as genuine tests of local political strength and measure the competing factions' ability to sway a global audience. Hezbollah produces 500,000 robed pro-Syrian protesters. The democrats respond with 800,000 well-heeled placard carriers. Even if the crowd estimates are exaggerated (Lebanon has a population of right at 4 million), the jammed boulevards and squares are dramatic visual and vocal statements.

The pro-democracy demonstrators have the edge in numbers and media sizzle -- they dominate the camera war. Virtually every news magazine and Web site features a raven-haired Levantine beauty demanding democracy and a Syrian military pull-out. The pro-Syrian marches seem pitifully dated -- angry, mustachioed men, assault rifles, chants of "Death to America."

Hezbollah's and Syria's media advisers don't realize that the Palestinian and Iraqi elections finally exposed the "myth of the Arab Street" as utter fascist pulp. After the Iraqi elections the chest-pounding thug act doesn't scare people anymore. We know the real Arab street would rather head for the Honda dealership.

The March 15 anti-U.S. demonstration at the American embassy in Beirut -- a desperate attempt by Syria to paint the United States as the occupier -- completely flopped. Everyone knows Syria has 14,000 troops in Lebanon. Everyone knows Damascus claims Lebanon as part of Greater Syria. A passel of folks know Syrian strategists also see their Lebanese occupation as a bargaining chip with Israel -- i.e., the Israelis pull back from the Golan Heights and Syria leaves Lebanon.

But what if massed tanks replace mass rallies or gunfire replaces rhetoric?

I don't think massed tanks are likely. U.S. and Iraqi forces on Syria's eastern border and Turkey's bitter dislike for Syria's Assad regime remind Damascus that overt military action invites overt military response.

Deterring Iranian meddling is the more complex trick. Saddled with a failed, repugnant revolution and disenchantment at home, Iran's theocrat dictators buy time with terror. Seeding regional turmoil and war via Lebanon's Hezbollah gives Iran leverage in Lebanon, Palestine and Syria. To lose Hezbollah reveals the mullahs' increasing weakness.

For this reason, gunfire between armed factions remains a very real possibility -- Iran and Syria benefit if the democratic surge is blunted and Lebanon spirals into factional war.

StrategyPage.com speculates that France is "indulging in stealthy peacekeeping" by stationing a navy supply ship off the Lebanese coast. The ship can support special operations forces (commandos) and is ostensibly there to evacuate French citizens if a shooting war erupts. However, the ship also serves as a reminder that if "stealth" doesn't deter violence, international forces could react.

That means the democrats' international supporters must have contingency plans to stop a bloodbath and ensure security -- a tough thought, but the plans exist. Operation Bluebat, the so-called "not war but like war" U.S. Lebanon intervention of 1958, has been critiqued for decades. It was hasty and poorly coordinated. To be successful, a Bluebat 2005 must swiftly place strong forces in crucial areas to reinforce Lebanese Army peacekeeping efforts. Special operations troops must be in contact with all factions. Iranian and Syrian intelligence nodes must be quickly eliminated.

Risky? Of course -- it's last resort. Better to deflate Hezbollah with diplomacy. The United States is pursuing a political strategy designed to drive a wedge between Hezbollah and its supporters in Damascus and Tehran. The United States argues that Lebanese Shias in Hezbollah have the chance to become Lebanese patriots instead of serve as Syrian puppets. The Lebanese Shias have relied on Shiite Iran for support, but a "Shia political alternative" now competes with theo-fascist Tehran: democratic Arab Shias in Iraq.

Iran and Syria only offer tyranny and war. The United States is betting Lebanon's Shias appreciate the Iraqi Shias' electoral boon and the economic benefits of peace. Iraq's "new Shia model" is another payoff in the War on Terror.

 

[nosarcasm]

well so they use the French to operate their. Interesting.

Well because the US is discredited in Lebanon (for reasons beyond reason)
the French are the natural source to influence the region and help
the oppostion to organize and create counter terror if necessary.

Now Iran's nuclear gamble really can be the major dealbraker.

That leaves the question how to best to support the Iranian opposition
that is sick of the Mullah old men regime. Lets sent in Mc Donalds