Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
This is interesting. Let's let the numbers from a Right-Wing leaning pollster speak for themselves:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/06/24/0624152016iranweb/
1,005 RV, MoE= +/-3.0, taken June 21-23, released June 25
GOP nomination:
Bush 15
TRUMP 11
Carson 10
Paul 9
Walker 9
Rubio 8
Huckabee 6
Cruz 4
Fiorina 3
Santorum 3
Christie 2
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
Perry 2
Graham 1
Pataki 1
I have bolded the names of all who have announced for President.
Margin: Bush, Jeb +4 over Trump, who is now in second place.
As usual, Hillary is tromping in the DEM field, with 61% to Sanders consistent 15%.
Ten head-to-head matchups, Clinton (D) vs. GOP field:
Clinton 43 / Bush, J 43 (tie)
Clinton 45 / Rubio 44 - Clinton +1
Clinton 46 / Paul 42 - Clinton +4
Clinton 46 / Carson 41 - Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Bloomberg 38* - Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 39 - Clinton +6
Clinton 47 / Walker 41 - Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Cruz 42 - Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Romney 42 - Clinton +6
Clinton 51 / Trump 34 - Clinton +17
The matchup against Bloomberg, according to the FOXNEWS poll, lists him as an "independent".
So, we have 10 matchups, 2 of which are pure fantasy (against Bloomberg as an independent and against Romney, who has already said he will not run).
But of those ten, there is one mathematical pure-tie against Bush, Jeb.
After that, Rubio, who is in 5th place in the GOP field, does the 2nd best against Hillary, one point behind her, which is of course a statistical tie.
Rand Paul, who is in 4th place in the GOP field, does the third best against Hillary, four points behind, but definitely outside of the margin of error.
Ben Carson, who is in 3rd place in the GOP field, is five points behind Hillary.
Bloomberg, Fiorina, Walker, Cruz and Romney are all six points behind her.
But Donald Trump, who is in SECOND place in the GOP field, loses to Hillary by a whalloping 17 points.
THAT'S the disconnect, in a big way.
There is more.
Trustworthy vs. untrustworthy.
Clinton: 45 YES / 52 NO - margin = -7
Bush, Jeb: 45 YES / 47 NO - margin = -2
Trump: 30 YES / 64 NO - margin = -34
You think Hillary Clinton has a trustworthiness problem? Look at Trump's values.
The good news for the GOP is that in 2011, Trump also made a splash in the polling for a while, in May 2011, and then decided not to run after Obama released his long form birth-certificate a number of days before Osama bin Laden was killed at the President's direct order. And then he faded from view. That could happen this time as well. Wait and see.
But no matter how you look at it, Trump's entry into the field has been noticed by GOPers. Only, in General Election matchups, he is a absolute trainwreck, and that by a polling firm with a noted mathematical bias severely to the Right.
In Kentucky, Trump loses to Clinton by 3 points at the current time, and that's a in a state that for the last 2 years, was looking very "battlegroundy", but as of today, less so.
It's very telling that not even FOX NEWS can get a GOP candidate in front of Hillary.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/06/24/0624152016iranweb/
1,005 RV, MoE= +/-3.0, taken June 21-23, released June 25
GOP nomination:
Bush 15
TRUMP 11
Carson 10
Paul 9
Walker 9
Rubio 8
Huckabee 6
Cruz 4
Fiorina 3
Santorum 3
Christie 2
Jindal 2
Kasich 2
Perry 2
Graham 1
Pataki 1
I have bolded the names of all who have announced for President.
Margin: Bush, Jeb +4 over Trump, who is now in second place.
As usual, Hillary is tromping in the DEM field, with 61% to Sanders consistent 15%.
Ten head-to-head matchups, Clinton (D) vs. GOP field:
Clinton 43 / Bush, J 43 (tie)
Clinton 45 / Rubio 44 - Clinton +1
Clinton 46 / Paul 42 - Clinton +4
Clinton 46 / Carson 41 - Clinton +5
Clinton 44 / Bloomberg 38* - Clinton +6
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 39 - Clinton +6
Clinton 47 / Walker 41 - Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Cruz 42 - Clinton +6
Clinton 48 / Romney 42 - Clinton +6
Clinton 51 / Trump 34 - Clinton +17
The matchup against Bloomberg, according to the FOXNEWS poll, lists him as an "independent".
So, we have 10 matchups, 2 of which are pure fantasy (against Bloomberg as an independent and against Romney, who has already said he will not run).
But of those ten, there is one mathematical pure-tie against Bush, Jeb.
After that, Rubio, who is in 5th place in the GOP field, does the 2nd best against Hillary, one point behind her, which is of course a statistical tie.
Rand Paul, who is in 4th place in the GOP field, does the third best against Hillary, four points behind, but definitely outside of the margin of error.
Ben Carson, who is in 3rd place in the GOP field, is five points behind Hillary.
Bloomberg, Fiorina, Walker, Cruz and Romney are all six points behind her.
But Donald Trump, who is in SECOND place in the GOP field, loses to Hillary by a whalloping 17 points.
THAT'S the disconnect, in a big way.
There is more.
Trustworthy vs. untrustworthy.
Clinton: 45 YES / 52 NO - margin = -7
Bush, Jeb: 45 YES / 47 NO - margin = -2
Trump: 30 YES / 64 NO - margin = -34
You think Hillary Clinton has a trustworthiness problem? Look at Trump's values.
The good news for the GOP is that in 2011, Trump also made a splash in the polling for a while, in May 2011, and then decided not to run after Obama released his long form birth-certificate a number of days before Osama bin Laden was killed at the President's direct order. And then he faded from view. That could happen this time as well. Wait and see.
But no matter how you look at it, Trump's entry into the field has been noticed by GOPers. Only, in General Election matchups, he is a absolute trainwreck, and that by a polling firm with a noted mathematical bias severely to the Right.
In Kentucky, Trump loses to Clinton by 3 points at the current time, and that's a in a state that for the last 2 years, was looking very "battlegroundy", but as of today, less so.
It's very telling that not even FOX NEWS can get a GOP candidate in front of Hillary.
