LA Times conflicting Poll/Projection

PK1

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Which latest POTUS voter "reflection" system is accurate ... in the correct direction?
One of them is wrong:

LA Times poll: Trump +5.6%;

LA Times electoral vote projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
 

320 Years of History

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PK1

PK1

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Which latest POTUS voter "reflection" system is accurate ... in the correct direction?
One of them is wrong:

LA Times poll: Trump +5.6%;

LA Times electoral vote projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
Sources of the data you cite?
LA Times.
Never mind. I'm not going looking all over the LA Times website to find the two pieces of data you noted.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours.
 

NYcarbineer

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I predicted a Clinton win by 5, 322 electoral votes,

just to remind all the RWnuts around here who may want slam me if I'm wrong.
 

320 Years of History

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Which latest POTUS voter "reflection" system is accurate ... in the correct direction?
One of them is wrong:

LA Times poll: Trump +5.6%;

LA Times electoral vote projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
Sources of the data you cite?
LA Times.
Never mind. I'm not going looking all over the LA Times website to find the two pieces of data you noted.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours.
TY.

Look at the dates of publication. The tracking poll information is current as of today. The other story is from two days ago. Also, if you look at the methodology of the tracking poll, you'll find that it reflects the responses of a fixed group of people. Their response to the poll question is tracked over time. Looking at the "final map" story, I see nothing indicating the prediction is based on the tracking poll's finding. Indeed, I see nothing indicating precisely on what that map is based.
 

bendog

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The LA Times poll does not reflect what the editors think. It's been an outlier all along with it's showing of Trump strength.
 
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PK1

PK1

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Which latest POTUS voter "reflection" system is accurate ... in the correct direction?
One of them is wrong:

LA Times poll: Trump +5.6%;

LA Times electoral vote projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
Sources of the data you cite?
LA Times.
Never mind. I'm not going looking all over the LA Times website to find the two pieces of data you noted.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours.
Look at the dates of publication. The tracking poll information is current as of today. The other story is from two days ago. Also, if you look at the methodology of the tracking poll, you'll find that it reflects the responses of a fixed group of people. Their response to the poll question is tracked over time. Looking at the "final map" story, I see nothing indicating the prediction is based on the tracking poll's finding. Indeed, I see nothing indicating precisely on what that map is based.
My understanding is the same as yours; the two voter "reflections" use different methodologies; although I have not yet inspected the Map's methodology, but it's obviously different.
After today, the more accurate one will surface ...
 
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PK1

PK1

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Perhaps this one will be most accurate:
ElectoralVote

Clinton
288


Trump
215


Dem-Senate
51


GOP-Senate
49
 
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PK1

PK1

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Looks like NEITHER poll was accurate!
Garbage in, garbage out.
The polling algorithms are worse than weather predictors. :)

Actual RESULTS:

Clinton
232


Trump
306


Dem-Senate
48


GOP-Senate
52
 

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