Japan Considering Preemption On NK

[Annie]

somehow I don't think this was what China or UN had in mind...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060710/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_missiles

Japan mulling action over N.Korea missiles

By MARI YAMAGUCHI, Associated Press Writer 30 minutes ago

Japan said Monday it was considering whether a pre-emptive strike on the North's missile bases would violate its constitution, suggesting it could take stronger action against the reclusive regime if the U.N. Security Council rejects its resolution calling for sanctions.

Japan was badly rattled by North Korea's missile tests last week and several government officials openly discussed whether the country ought to take steps to better defend itself, including setting up the legal framework to allow Tokyo to launch a pre-emptive strike against Northern missile sites.

"If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.

Japan's constitution currently bars the use of military force in settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining a military for warfare. Tokyo, however, has interpreted that to mean it can have armed troops to protect itself, allowing the existence of its 240,000-strong Self-Defense Forces.

Despite resistance from China and Russia, Japan has pushed for a U.N. Security Council resolution that would prohibit nations from procuring missiles or missile-related "items, materials goods and technology" from North Korea. A vote was possible in New York later Monday.

"It's important for the international community to express a strong will in response to the North Korean missile launches," Abe said. "This resolution is an effective way of expressing that."

China and Russia, both nations with veto power on the council, have voiced opposition to the measure. Kyodo News agency reported Monday, citing unnamed Chinese diplomatic sources, that China may use its veto on the Security Council to block the resolution.

The United States, Britain and France have expressed support for the proposal, while Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso has said there is a possibility that Russia will abstain.

South Korea, not a council member, has not publicly taken a position on the resolution, but on Sunday Seoul rebuked Japan for its outspoken criticism of the tests.

"There is no reason to fuss over this from the break of dawn like Japan, but every reason to do the opposite," a statement from President Roh Moo-hyun's office said, suggesting that Tokyo was contributing to tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Meanwhile, a Chinese delegation including the country's top nuclear envoy — Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei — arrived in North Korea on Monday, officially to attend celebrations marking the 45th anniversary of a friendship treaty between the North and China.

The U.S. is urging Beijing to push its communist ally back into six-party nuclear disarmament talks, but the Chinese government has not said whether Wu would bring up the negotiations. A ministry spokeswoman said last week that China was "making assiduous efforts" in pushing for the talks to resume.

Talks have been deadlocked since November because of a boycott by Pyongyang in protest of a crackdown by Washington on the regime's alleged money-laundering and other financial crimes.

Beijing has suggested an informal gathering of the six nations, which could allow the North to technically stand by its boycott, but at the same time meet with the other five parties — South Korea, China, the U.S., Japan and Russia. The U.S. has backed the idea and said Washington could meet with the North on the sidelines of such a meeting.

In Tokyo, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill met with Aso on Monday as part of a tour through the region to coordinate strategy on North Korea. Hill has emphasized the need for countries involved to present a united front.

"We want to make it very clear that we all speak in one voice on this provocative action by the North Koreans to launch missiles in all shapes and sizes," Hill said. "We want to make it clear to North Korea that what it did was really unacceptable."

 

[1549]

It is entirely possible that better judgement and diplomacy will get tossed out the window. Japan will attack North Korea, China will attack Japan--and Taiwan in the process--Russia will get involved. The U.S. and the European nations will mobilize and step into action. Suddenly we have WWIII and a lot of kids will die in the process.

How is that for the worst case scenario of the century?

 

[PsuedoGhost]

It is entirely possible that better judgement and diplomacy will get tossed out the window. Japan will attack North Korea, China will attack Japan--and Taiwan in the process--Russia will get involved. The U.S. and the European nations will mobilize and step into action. Suddenly we have WWIII and a lot of kids will die in the process.

How is that for the worst case scenario of the century?

China would NEVER attack Japan. They know that such an assault would lead to full scale thermonuclear war with America and possibly Russia as well. The Russians may still have some communistic tendencies but their allegiance is no where near where it used to be.

What do we do? Finish the missile shield. Show the North Koreans that it works, and let them rot.

 

[1549]

China would NEVER attack Japan. They know that such an assault would lead to full scale thermonuclear war with America and possibly Russia as well. The Russians may still have some communistic tendencies but their allegiance is no where near where it used to be.

What do we do? Finish the missile shield. Show the North Koreans that it works, and let them rot.

I think China's incentive not to attack would be based more on economics. They might not want to lose their spot in the U.S. market.

The Russians are backing North Korea in the UN resolutions, who knows what would happen if it came down to war.

You can throw India into the mix. They tested a long range missle capable of reaching Bejiing.

 

[nosarcasm]

Japan is the largest investor in China.

 

[Annie]

Japan is the largest investor in China.

There's no love loss between China and Japan, regardless of investment. I agree though, China would not attack Japan, not now.

 

[Gunny]

It is entirely possible that better judgement and diplomacy will get tossed out the window. Japan will attack North Korea, China will attack Japan--and Taiwan in the process--Russia will get involved. The U.S. and the European nations will mobilize and step into action. Suddenly we have WWIII and a lot of kids will die in the process.

How is that for the worst case scenario of the century?

Rather an alarmist opinion. You base your scenario on what?

The Japanese hate the Koreans. The Koreans hate teh Japanese. Been that way for centuries. Note that South Korea, a Nation which has as much or more to lose than anyone, STILL had something negative to say about Japan.

IMO, China will not retaliate against preemptive strikes. They might bitch and foam at the mouth and rattle their sabers, but they have too much to lose economically by openly defying the US; which, is what WILL happen if Japan launches a preeemptive strike. They've backed us in the ME. If we don't back them, we SUCK.

Add to that, Jung has openly defied China by continuing his confrontational, self-agrandizing BS. He is an embarrasment to China, and I don't see China backing his play beyond words with nothing to gain from it.

 

[nosarcasm]

There's no love loss between China and Japan, regardless of investment. I agree though, China would not attack Japan, not now.

sure the Chinese government uses anti Japanese sentiment in the population for nationalistic demonstrations.


But I am sure they noticed that conservative member of congress started thinking out aloud to provide Japan with nuclear weapons to be able to defend itself against either NorthKorea or China.

Japan pays for its own part of the Missile Shield and is after the UK probably the closest Ally the US has.

Now if they could get rid of the stupid limits in their constitution .....

 

[Annie]

sure the Chinese government uses anti Japanese sentiment in the population for nationalistic demonstrations.


But I am sure they noticed that conservative member of congress started thinking out aloud to provide Japan with nuclear weapons to be able to defend itself against either NorthKorea or China.

Japan pays for its own part of the Missile Shield and is after the UK probably the closest Ally the US has.

Now if they could get rid of the stupid limits in their constitution .....

I think 'yes' to all, including I think, they will amend their constitution. I really don't think China thought through what the Japanese response could be.

 

[USMCDevilDog]

I just have one question. Why whenever we're faced with a possible major threat like a potential enemy having a nuke does China and Russia (and only them, always them two) say no no no, lets settle this differently. It seems like they have a little double team going on to make sure that the real bad guys are kept safe. What the hell is going on? Why the fuck do we have to listen to them every time and not just do what we really have to do and blow the fucking missle sites up?

 

[Gunny]

I just have one question. Why whenever we're faced with a possible major threat like a potential enemy having a nuke does China and Russia (and only them, always them two) say no no no, lets settle this differently. It seems like they have a little double team going on to make sure that the real bad guys are kept safe. What the hell is going on? Why the fuck do we have to listen to them every time and not just do what we really have to do and blow the fucking missle sites up?

Why let France and Germany off the hook?

We listen to China and Russia because because N Korea falls into their sphere of influence, and is the reason we have been pressuring China to put the squeeze on NK.

China and Russia both represent a global, thermonuclear threat and cannot be ignored. The're reactions must be factored into any actions taken within their spheres of influence.

While I don't think China would do anything but run their mouthes about a preemptive strike against NK, I likewise believe China would not tolerate an invasion of NK anymore than we would tolerate an invasion of Mexico or Canada.