It's Early But McCain Is In Trouble

[Annie]

I think the problem for him is deeper than the Journal seems to. Those who do know both Guiliani's stands, as well as McCain's, are trending towards Guiliani. These aren't liberals, they are however influencers of others, that do not follow politics all that much. McCain's negatives are highly personal, though as all character issues of politicians they tend to fall into the public arena. He is too full of himself by half, which is saying alot for someone of his depth and breath of experiences.

http://online.wsj.com/public/articl...ZheNpf9m8ywFCq7WK46MQNzxGQA_20080306.html?mod

McCain Is Forced
To Play Catch-Up
As Support Ebbs
Poll Reflects Concerns
About Age, War Stance;
A Giuliani Boomlet
By JOHN HARWOOD
March 8, 2007; Page A1

WASHINGTON -- Some 10 months before Republican voters begin to select the party's presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain is facing unexpectedly formidable challenges despite courting the party faithful during his seven-year wait on deck for a shot at the White House.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows the Arizona senator trailing Rudy Giuliani by more than 20 percentage points -- and encountering doubts in the party about his age and steadfast support for the Iraq war.
IN THE POLLS

[Go to the Poll]
Americans are already paying attention to the field of presidential hopefuls in both parties. See poll results. (Adobe Acrobat required)

Mr. McCain's support "is softening," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the Journal/NBC survey with Republican counterpart Neil Newhouse. Republican voters "are window shopping," Mr. Newhouse adds, and at this stage finding reasons to look past the familiar Mr. McCain toward the inspiring post-9/11 profile of the former New York City mayor. All told, 2008 is shaping up as the worst presidential year in three decades to be the candidate of the Republican establishment, the spot some in the party think Mr. McCain has assumed...

 

[red states rule]

McCain gets in trouble eveytime he opens his mouth. The liberal media is rooting for him, so watch the knives come out against Rudy

 

[Annie]

More numbers from the states:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/0308200...ews_ian_bishop_________post_correspondent.htm

RUDY HAS HILL'S NUMBER
POLLS GIVE GIULIANI EARLY EDGE
By IAN BISHOP Post Correspondent


March 8, 2007 -- WASHINGTON - A new poll shows Rudy Giuliani taking two of the three crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio from Hillary Rodham Clinton by winning over independents and nearly breaking even with her bread and butter - female voters.

In the head-to-head showdown, Giuliani thumps Clinton by 11 points in Pennsylvania and bests her by 5 in Florida - while the former first lady edges America's Mayor by one point in the Buckeye State.

Giuliani crushes Clinton nemesis Barack Obama in all three states, racking up 12-point leads in Florida and Pennsylvania and a 4-point cushion in Ohio.

The Quinnipiac University poll found an eye-popping 51 percent of Pennsylvania voters back Giuliani - including 20 percent of Keystone State Democrats - over Clinton, who pulled in 40 percent support. Clinton eked out only a 1-point edge with women.

The poll's assistant director, Peter Brown, said Pennsylvanians are keenly interested in homeland security - the fourth plane involved in the 9/11 attacks crashed in the state - and hold Giuliani in high regard...

 

[red states rule]

More numbers from the states:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/0308200...ews_ian_bishop_________post_correspondent.htm

I know it is very early but I am very happy Rudy is doing so well. The liberal media and the Dems are very scared about facing off against Rudy

My liberal co-worker is always trying to tell me how Rudy is really a liberal. When I ask him if HE would vote for Rudy then, he rolls his eyes and changes the subject

 

[Mr.Conley]

An alternate viewpoint: http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8819839

THE last time he ran for president John McCain spent months rolling around New Hampshire in a bus, the Straight Talk Express. This time he has swapped the bus for a giant locomotive. He has hired high-price political consultants, some from the Bush entourage, tapped into a network of rich donors and established operations across the country. Yet the locomotive remains stubbornly stuck in the station.

Mr McCain is trailing Rudy Giuliani by as much as 25 points. His attempt to build bridges with the right has alienated his former friends in the centre without converting conservatives. And he seems to be dogged by bad luck—his recent announcement that he is going to run, for example, was marred by his faux pas about American lives being “wasted” in Iraq.

Why is the McCain express still immobile? The most important reason is the senator's outspoken support for George Bush's decision to send five more brigades to Iraq. This has not only put him on the wrong side of an unpopular war (two-thirds of the population oppose the “surge”); it has also strengthened the impression that he is speaking for the White House.

The other reason is his botched transformation from maverick to establishment figure. Mr McCain tried to turn himself into the inevitable Republican champion by mending fences with all the people he had upset in the past—from the Bush camp to the religious right to conservative activists. This made sense after his failure of 2000 (remember the old adage that Democrats like to fall in love while Republicans like to fall in line). But it is proving hard to pull off, with independents accusing him of pandering and conservatives still nursing their old wounds.

It would be a mistake, however, to think that Mr McCain will be static for ever. Mr Giuliani is a flawed front-runner. He has huge strengths as the architect of New York's turnaround and as the hero of September 11th 2001, to be sure. But he has equally huge weaknesses. His private life is tangled (his relationship with his son, Andrew, is so strained that he did not even turn up to his graduation). His business affairs are more tangled still. He has a foul temper and a mean streak as wide as the Hudson river. “Absolutely not,” was the response of Ed Koch, another former New York mayor and a political rival, to the suggestion that Mr Giuliani is a racist. “He's nasty to everybody.”

Mr Giuliani also seems unprepared for a national campaign. Last week George Will introduced him to the annual meeting of CPAC—a gathering of more than 6,000 red-meat activists—by saying that conservatism comes in many flavours, with Mr Giuliani the Thatcherite one. A nice point. But the former mayor then delivered a meandering speech that left the audience dispirited. His campaign may collapse as quickly as it inflated.

The Giuliani bubble is as much a proof of the weakness of the other anti-McCain candidates as it is a long-term threat to Mr McCain himself. The strongest competition to Mr McCain arguably came from Mitt Romney rather than Mr Giuliani (the rest of the candidates are midgets compared with the big three). Mr Romney has a long record of managerial competence—a huge selling point after George Bush's serial incompetences. He is also an efficient politician: his speech at CPAC was as smooth as Mr Giuliani's was ragged.

But the failure of the Romney campaign to catch fire is good news for Mr McCain. Mr Romney's Mormonism is proving more of a problem than many people expected: a quarter of Americans claim that they would not vote for a Mormon. But what is really damaging him is his opportunistic flip-flopping over abortion and gay marriage. If he is willing to pander on these issues as a candidate, might he not pander as president?

Conservative activists might warm to Mr McCain if they took another look at him. It is true that he has quarrelled with conservative pressure groups. But that is often because he sees them as obstacles to achieving conservative ends, such as a balanced budget or clean politics. It is true that Mr McCain refused to endorse the Federal Marriage Amendment. But he did so for the eminently conservative reason that these sorts of issues should be decided by the states rather than the federal government. It is true that Mr McCain has pushed for more federal funding for stem-cell research. But he has also been more consistently conservative on abortion than any of the other first-tier candidates.

Conservatism's best hope
Mr McCain has a rare ability to present conservative ideas in a language that moderates and independents can find appealing. He also has a rare ability to break with the conservative establishment on subjects where they are obviously batting on a losing wicket, such as global warming. This could make him the best candidate for reviving conservatism from its current dismal state—and also the best candidate for keeping conservatism alive in a Washington where the Democrats rule Capitol Hill.

Mr McCain has also often been right about the war. He was one of the first major politicians to call for Donald Rumsfeld's resignation. He repeatedly criticised George Bush's tolerance of torture as a stain on America's good name. Even his support for Mr Bush's “surge” may not be as much of a liability as it appears. The bulk of Republican primary voters are in favour of giving the war one last chance; and Mr McCain's willingness to risk his political career over Iraq burnishes his tarnished reputation as a straight-talker.

His biggest weakness has to do with age rather than ideology. He will be 72 if he is elected to the White House, and his face is visibly scarred from bouts with skin cancer. But he has the energy and attitude of a much younger man, and seems to absorb energy from his audience. And he also boasts the most impressive biography in American politics. The McCain Express will not stay stuck in the station for ever.

 

[red states rule]

McCain is to worried about being liked by the liberal media. He does not have a prayer of getting the nomination

 

[Annie]

McCain is to worried about being liked by the liberal media. He does not have a prayer of getting the nomination

That would be going too far. If left to the RNC, he would have it. They'll do what they can.

 

[red states rule]

That would be going too far. If left to the RNC, he would have it. They'll do what they can.

Well Kathy let me ask you this question. Which Presidential candisate said the following:

The first thing I will do as President will be to close GITMO

If an older worker loses his high paying job and has to take a lower paying job, it should be the responsibility of the Federal Government to make up the difference

Hint - it was NOT a Dem

 

[Annie]

Well Kathy let me ask you this question. Which Presidential candisate said the following:

The first thing I will do as President will be to close GITMO

If an older worker loses his high paying job and has to take a lower paying job, it should be the responsibility of the Federal Government to make up the difference

Hint - it was NOT a Dem

You may disagree, but McCain has 'earned' the nomination the traditional way. The RNC will support his bid, as long as possible. That's politics.

 

[red states rule]

You may disagree, but McCain has 'earned' the nomination the traditional way. The RNC will support his bid, as long as possible. That's politics.

Kathy, he will NOT get the nod. If he does I will buy you dinner at Ruth's Chris

 

[Annie]

Kathy, he will NOT get the nod. If he does I will buy you dinner at Ruth's Chris

Then you already owe me. The RNC is already doing what they can for McCain. He ran a good race in 2000, skipped 2004, in deference to the president. It's 'his turn.' Guiliani is the odd man out, which is why this early showing is so interesting. It may fall apart, certainly the party hopes it will. Not as much as the Dems, but hope they do.

I've already been contacted to help McCain by National, I declined and stated why.There is a Ruth Cris here, you are buying, right! I'm much more argumentative in person! j/k.

 

[red states rule]

Then you already owe me. The RNC is already doing what they can for McCain. He ran a good race in 2000, skipped 2004, in deference to the president. It's 'his turn.' Guiliani is the odd man out, which is why this early showing is so interesting. It may fall apart, certainly the party hopes it will. Not as much as the Dems, but hope they do.

I've already been contacted to help McCain by National, I declined and stated why.There is a Ruth Cris here, you are buying, right! I'm much more argumentative in person! j/k.

Kathy, if McCain gives his acceptence speech at the RNC convention I will send you the money and you can get whatever you want at Ruth's Chris. Or I will come to Chicago and be glad to have dinner with you

Rudy will be the one on stage giving the speech however

 

[trobinett]

Then you already owe me. The RNC is already doing what they can for McCain. He ran a good race in 2000, skipped 2004, in deference to the president. It's 'his turn.' Guiliani is the odd man out, which is why this early showing is so interesting. It may fall apart, certainly the party hopes it will. Not as much as the Dems, but hope they do.

I've already been contacted to help McCain by National, I declined and stated why.There is a Ruth Cris here, you are buying, right! I'm much more argumentative in person! j/k.

I just don't know, I really respect McCain, he'd make a good President, but I'd bet he would fuck up on a constant basis.

I don't know WHO Guilani really is, he scares me.

I've made it clear who I will be voting for.

 

[red states rule]

I just don't know, I really respect McCain, he'd make a good President, but I'd bet he would fuck up on a constant basis.

I don't know WHO Guilani really is, he scares me.

I've made it clear who I will be voting for.

You will get to know Rudy and you will like what you see. When you have a lib like Chris Matthews falling all over a Republican - that should scare you

 

[Annie]

I just don't know, I really respect McCain, he'd make a good President, but I'd bet he would fuck up on a constant basis.

I don't know WHO Guilani really is, he scares me.

I've made it clear who I will be voting for.

McCain's temperment is the problem. Interesting that someone used Rudy's as a problem. McCain is famous for basically saying, "I've been there, you haven't, shut up." He's unmerciful with his staff and even volunteers. Not good, considering his age and health.

With Rudy, those of us that have followed were probably most surprised with his returning the check to SA royal. Basically an 'up yours' from a New Yorker. That he is 'way liberal' of us? He's from NY. See Rockerfeller et al.

 

[Mr.Conley]

McCain's got the machine, and that's hard to beat, whoever you might be.

I don't think Rudy's going to get the nod. Right now he's running purely on namepower, but as we get closer and closer to the primaries he's going to have to start explaining himself, his stance, the lady friends, etc. and I don't think he can get around that.

 

[red states rule]

Cleaning up New York
March 7, 2007

Am I wrong when I say that Rudy Giuliani really did do a phenomenal job cleaning up crime in New York City? Will his critics disagree? The question for Giuliani is will this shining light on his resume be enough to propel him to victory? I'm not talking about what Evangelical Christians think here and how they'll vote. It probably won't make that much of a difference to the majority of them. I'm talking about how this will play with moderates and independant voters in the Republican primaries. Read below from The American Spectator:

Just before Giuliani was elected in 1993, Time ran a cover story on "The Rotting Apple." Three years later, Giuliani was on the cover as "The Man Who Saved New York." (It was only five years later he became "Man of the Year" in 2001.) Read Fred Siegel's Prince of the City and you will find 90 percent of Giuliani's accomplishments came before September 11th. He cut murders from 2,100 a year to less than 800. He drove the mafia out of the Fulton Fish Market -- even though a few city officials almost got killed in the process. He cut taxes in a city that had never seen a tax cut. He cut spending (ditto). He faced off against every municipal union in the city -- including the police, who rioted against him. He pulled New York's economy so far out of the depths that for the first time since the 1950s the city grew faster than the rest of the country."
http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/115665.aspx

 

[Annie]

Cleaning up New York
March 7, 2007

Am I wrong when I say that Rudy Giuliani really did do a phenomenal job cleaning up crime in New York City? Will his critics disagree? The question for Giuliani is will this shining light on his resume be enough to propel him to victory? I'm not talking about what Evangelical Christians think here and how they'll vote. It probably won't make that much of a difference to the majority of them. I'm talking about how this will play with moderates and independant voters in the Republican primaries. Read below from The American Spectator:

Just before Giuliani was elected in 1993, Time ran a cover story on "The Rotting Apple." Three years later, Giuliani was on the cover as "The Man Who Saved New York." (It was only five years later he became "Man of the Year" in 2001.) Read Fred Siegel's Prince of the City and you will find 90 percent of Giuliani's accomplishments came before September 11th. He cut murders from 2,100 a year to less than 800. He drove the mafia out of the Fulton Fish Market -- even though a few city officials almost got killed in the process. He cut taxes in a city that had never seen a tax cut. He cut spending (ditto). He faced off against every municipal union in the city -- including the police, who rioted against him. He pulled New York's economy so far out of the depths that for the first time since the 1950s the city grew faster than the rest of the country."
http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/115665.aspx

RSR, I'm having trouble figuring out what is your take and what is from the article. When I go to the article, I find all is a 'grab.' Shouldn't that be in quotes?

 

[trobinett]

McCain's got the machine, and that's hard to beat, whoever you might be.

I don't think Rudy's going to get the nod. Right now he's running purely on namepower, but as we get closer and closer to the primaries he's going to have to start explaining himself, his stance, the lady friends, etc. and I don't think he can get around that.

Well, he HAS surprised in the pass.

Still lots of time left. I mean right, shit..................

 

[Mr.Conley]

Cleaning up New York
March 7, 2007

Am I wrong when I say that Rudy Giuliani really did do a phenomenal job cleaning up crime in New York City? Will his critics disagree? The question for Giuliani is will this shining light on his resume be enough to propel him to victory? I'm not talking about what Evangelical Christians think here and how they'll vote. It probably won't make that much of a difference to the majority of them. I'm talking about how this will play with moderates and independant voters in the Republican primaries. Read below from The American Spectator:

Just before Giuliani was elected in 1993, Time ran a cover story on "The Rotting Apple." Three years later, Giuliani was on the cover as "The Man Who Saved New York." (It was only five years later he became "Man of the Year" in 2001.) Read Fred Siegel's Prince of the City and you will find 90 percent of Giuliani's accomplishments came before September 11th. He cut murders from 2,100 a year to less than 800. He drove the mafia out of the Fulton Fish Market -- even though a few city officials almost got killed in the process. He cut taxes in a city that had never seen a tax cut. He cut spending (ditto). He faced off against every municipal union in the city -- including the police, who rioted against him. He pulled New York's economy so far out of the depths that for the first time since the 1950s the city grew faster than the rest of the country."
http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/115665.aspx

That's another thing. Sure, Rudy did a great job as mayor, but there's a huge difference between running a city (even New York city) and running the country. President's don't deal with this kind of simple law and order, good guy, bad guy stuff. Presidents have to push legislative agendas, deal with Congress, fight the bureaucracy, entertain diplomats, discern intelligence, etc. I'm not saying that Guilliani isn't great at what he does, but I'm not sure if he could handle the Presidency as skillfully as McCain.