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| Cases | Deaths | Median Age | |||
| Germany | 119,624 | 2,607 | 47.1 | ||
| Italy | 147,577 | 18,849 | 45.5 |
Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?
Cases Deaths Median Age Germany 119,624 2,607 47.1 Italy 147,577 18,849 45.5
Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.
Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.
| Tests Per Million People | Positives Per Million | Deaths Per Million | Recoveries Per Million | ||
| Germany | 15,850 | 1,214 | 32 | 504 | |
| Italy | 15,035 | 2,447 | 313 | 505 |
Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?
Cases Deaths Median Age Germany 119,624 2,607 47.1 Italy 147,577 18,849 45.5
I think you're not looking at population data correctly for this. 23% of Italy's population is over the age of 65; only Japan has a larger percentage of people over 65, at 28%. Germany's population is 21% over the age of 65.
But you are correct that there are other factors involved. Apparently, one big reason that Germany has such a low death rate is that it is testing something like 120,000 people a week, which means they're identifying a lot more mild cases with few or no symptoms. That changes the equation a lot. It's kinda like saying a higher percentage of people in hospitals die. It's true, but that's also because people are in the hospital BECAUSE they're seriously ill to start with. If you only factor in people who are in danger of dying, then the percentage of them that actually die is going to be higher than if you average in people who aren't even feeling sick.
| Median Age | % over 65 | ||||
| Germany | 46.1 (3rd in world) | 21.5 (3rd in world) | |||
| Italy | 45.5 (5th in world) | 23 (2nd in world) |
Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.
Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.
Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.
Tests Per Million People Positives Per Million Deaths Per Million Recoveries Per Million Germany 15,850 1,214 32 504 Italy 15,035 2,447 313 505
Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.
Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.
Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.
Tests Per Million People Positives Per Million Deaths Per Million Recoveries Per Million Germany 15,850 1,214 32 504 Italy 15,035 2,447 313 505
Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:
Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.
Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.
The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?
Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?
Cases Deaths Median Age Germany 119,624 2,607 47.1 Italy 147,577 18,849 45.5
Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.
Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.
Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.
Tests Per Million People Positives Per Million Deaths Per Million Recoveries Per Million Germany 15,850 1,214 32 504 Italy 15,035 2,447 313 505
Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:
Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.
Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.
The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?
Table 1: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020.Germany .. 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]Italy .......... 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
Italy has 14 times Germany's infection rate, tests only the worst cases, many of whom die.
Germany tests widely, finds many mild cases (to curtail community transmission), few of whom die.
Italy and Germany have done almost the same number of tests per capita to date. Italy has about twice the positives per capita and almost 10 times the deaths per capita. Germany's recoveries per capita is already about equal to Italy's and trending upwards faster.
Tests Per Million People Positives Per Million Deaths Per Million Recoveries Per Million Germany 15,850 1,214 32 504 Italy 15,035 2,447 313 505
Is it really so hard to figure out why that is irrelevant? Let's make it simple:
Country A has 100 infected, tests the worst 50.
Country B has 1.400 infected, also tests the worst 50.
The "confirmed cases" are about the same. 50. Which country will have the higher death rate?
Germany has conducted more tests, except they have more people. Germany and Italy have actually tested about the same number of people per capita. In other words, Italy's testing is as thorough as Germany's.
If Italy and Germany have conducted about the same number of tests per capita and Italy only has twice the positive results per capita, how do they have 14 times the infection rate? They do not, they have twice the infection rate.
None of which has anything to do with the fact that Germany has considerably more recovered patients and fewer deaths.
Italy's fatality rate is about 5.86 times that of Germany's. What other than median age can be used to explain it?
Cases Deaths Median Age Germany 119,624 2,607 47.1 Italy 147,577 18,849 45.5
Almost 24% of Italy's citizens are over the age of 65 with many living into their 90's even 100's. I'm not sure looking at the median age is how to compare this. Italians are also highly communal living in multi-generation homes and socializing in large groups.
