Is the petrodollar losing ground to China's petroyuan ?

the other mike

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Jan 5, 2019
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Here is a snip from the article* ...
In 2018, China launched yuan-denominated oil futures contracts in Shanghai, known as the petroyuan, with the aim of internationalising its currency and competing with US petrodollars, which have underpinned the existing system of oil valuation for decades.

The petrodollar dates back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the US dollar was agreed upon to become the new global currency in the post-war monetary system.

In the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed when former president Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and introduced a fiat US dollar-based system. Nixon subsequently struck a deal with Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, to buy oil and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment.

In return, the Saudis would "recycle" billions of dollars in revenue back into US treasuries, financing American spending.

The deal established the petrodollar system, creating a lifetime of demand for dollars from wealthy Middle Eastern countries based on demand for their crude oil.

Petrodollar hegemony allowed the US to maintain influence over the rest of the world and perpetually finance its current account deficit by issuing dollar-denominated assets at low interest rates.

As the world's largest buyer of oil from Saudi Arabia, China could duplicate the strategy to dictate oil pricing terms, analysts said.

*
For the record, this article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Also there's apparently a misprint in one of the last paragraphs;
Global trade in 2018 was worth about US$20 billion, but yuan transactions accounted for only about 1.8 per cent. If they doubled to 3.6 per cent, that would mean an extra US$360 billion taken out of the system, Dooley said.

I believe they meant to say $20 Trillion.

 
I've been noting for years that this is happening.
 
America is the #1 producer of oil in the world at the moment.

China doesn't produce oil.
 
Trump undermined the US Dollar when he printed 500% more than all US currency printed in US history.

fredgraph.png


Everyone in the world is now scrambling to find another stable world currency & petrodollar.
 
Trump undermined the US Dollar when he printed 500% more than all US currency printed in US history.

fredgraph.png


Everyone in the world is now scrambling to find another stable world currency & petrodollar.

It's not going to be a Chinese currency.
 
Here is a snip from the article* ...
In 2018, China launched yuan-denominated oil futures contracts in Shanghai, known as the petroyuan, with the aim of internationalising its currency and competing with US petrodollars, which have underpinned the existing system of oil valuation for decades.

The petrodollar dates back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, where the US dollar was agreed upon to become the new global currency in the post-war monetary system.

In the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed when former president Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and introduced a fiat US dollar-based system. Nixon subsequently struck a deal with Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, to buy oil and provide the kingdom military aid and equipment.

In return, the Saudis would "recycle" billions of dollars in revenue back into US treasuries, financing American spending.

The deal established the petrodollar system, creating a lifetime of demand for dollars from wealthy Middle Eastern countries based on demand for their crude oil.

Petrodollar hegemony allowed the US to maintain influence over the rest of the world and perpetually finance its current account deficit by issuing dollar-denominated assets at low interest rates.

As the world's largest buyer of oil from Saudi Arabia, China could duplicate the strategy to dictate oil pricing terms, analysts said.

*For the record, this article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Also there's apparently a misprint in one of the last paragraphs;
Global trade in 2018 was worth about US$20 billion, but yuan transactions accounted for only about 1.8 per cent. If they doubled to 3.6 per cent, that would mean an extra US$360 billion taken out of the system, Dooley said.

I believe they meant to say $20 Trillion.


Yes....and for several reasons.

1.) The fiat currency of a nation is only as good as it's ability to redeem it in hard goods....usually precious metals but more importantly....get ready for it because even most economists miss this one....man hours. In the final analysis man hours is the ultimate commodity. China simply has more of them than anyone else.

2.) We are constantly living beyond our means. Rather than to live down to what we can actually account for in terms of real man hours we borrow against the future...our descendants' man hours that haven't even been worked yet. To do this we promise creditors ( China is our main creditor) that we will pay (interest first ) loan payments with the ultimate goal of paying off what we owe. Truth is that's never going to happen. So every part of every dollar unit is already compromised as soon as it is minted because a growing portion of it is unavailable to spend....and it's getting worse every year.

3.) China, despite it's growing economy, still lives far below our per Capita living standard. In other words they can account for their wealth in terms of real time man hours whereas we can no longer do that. Cleverly they keep the yuan pegged to the dollar at about 8 to 1. That however is only on paper trading. The real ratio isuch smaller and getting smaller all the time as our interest on our debt eats more of every dollar unit every year.

4.) Soon it will become painfully apparent to those nations making hydrocarbon purchases that the yuan will bring more of that product per unit than the dollar will. When that happens...it's game over.

Jo
 

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