Intrade Market Odds

[The Paperboy]

If McCain wins and you bought $1,000.00 in "McCain" today how much would you make?

 

[Larkinn]

If McCain wins and you bought $1,000.00 in "McCain" today how much would you make?

Probably 50k or more I would guess.

 

[The Paperboy]

Probably 50k or more I would guess.

Hmmmm... have to check the polls tomorrow.

 

[Larkinn]

Hmmmm... have to check the polls tomorrow.

I'm prolly wrong actually...50k is too high. Maybe 40k? Or 30k? Odds of McCain winning are quite small.

 

[Toro]

The current price to buy a McCain contract is 13.4 cents. That means market participants believe McCain has a 13% chance of winning. Each contract pays $10. Thus, each McCain contract costs $1.34, based on the most recent ask price. That means you could buy 746 contracts on McCain. If McCain won, you would be paid $10 on each contract, meaning your $1000 investment would be worth $7,460 if McCain wins.

http://www.intrade.com/

For the record, that is not a bet I would take.

 

[DavidS]

The current price to buy a McCain contract is 13.4 cents. That means market participants believe McCain has a 13% chance of winning. Each contract pays $10. Thus, each McCain contract costs $1.34, based on the most recent ask price. That means you could buy 746 contracts on McCain. If McCain won, you would be paid $10 on each contract, meaning your $1000 investment would be worth $7,460 if McCain wins.

Intrade Prediction Markets

For the record, that is not a bet I would take.

Actually, it's down to 12.4......