In the future we will not be able to use shipping indexes to judge world commerce


At the Ballpark July 30th
Nov 8, 2008
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South Pacific
DRYS: Basic Chart for DryShips Inc. - Yahoo! Finance

Indexes like the Baltic Dry Index and DRYS (a shipping company) will not be reliable because of all the new ships being built in China, Korea and Japan (and a few more in Europe)

The indexes reflect the cost of shipping. If you look at DRYS, you can see that before the Depression started, there was tremendous demand for shipping and the price to "Hire" a ship was up near a hundred dollars per unit of volume. Once the Depression hit that price fell to five or six dollars, briefly rising on two occasions when the Chines Communists decided to buy all the cheap iron oar and copper and other commodities on the world market and ship all that crap back to Communist China to use for the next five or six years. They could do that because they control all of the purse strings for massive purchases like that. They got a good deal because the rest of the world was then worried about economic collapse and were willing to sell all of that stuff at dirt poor prices.

Wouldn't it be great if the United States was that smart? Unfortunately our highly corrupt political system can not think that far ahead. Even a liberal like Obama is not that smart.
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