IHME model lowers its projected number of U.S. deaths

[bripat9643]

How many times do you think they will lower their estimate?

IHME model lowers its projected number of U.S. deaths​

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For better or for worse, the University of Washington’s IHME model has become, for many governmental units, the go-to set of projections relating to the Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. Governments credit the IHME’s forecasts of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, and strain on medical resources.​

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Until today, the IHME was forecasting 93,531 deaths from the virus (through early August). Now, it has (to 81,766). This number is in line with the model’s initial forecast (or at least the first such forecast of which I’m aware).​

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The model still predicts that the daily death rate from the virus will peak on April 16.​

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[snip] The IHME model assumes that all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” It also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.​

 

[Correll]

How many times do you think they will lower their estimate?

IHME model lowers its projected number of U.S. deaths​

​

For better or for worse, the University of Washington’s IHME model has become, for many governmental units, the go-to set of projections relating to the Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. Governments credit the IHME’s forecasts of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, and strain on medical resources.​

​

Until today, the IHME was forecasting 93,531 deaths from the virus (through early August). Now, it has (to 81,766). This number is in line with the model’s initial forecast (or at least the first such forecast of which I’m aware).​

​

The model still predicts that the daily death rate from the virus will peak on April 16.​

​

[snip] The IHME model assumes that all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” It also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.​

Four times, and then they just let it fade away. That is my guess.

 

[toobfreak]

How many times do you think they will lower their estimate?

A whole bunch of times. Their estimates now already put Covid on a par with last year's flu when hardly no one gave a 2nd notice to and there were NO school closings, NO industries shut down, NO police raids to get people off the street, NO parks closed, and NO people put out of work.