I Think China And Russia Are Taking NK More Seriously Than I Credited

[Annie]

There are links, especially catch the recommended Pelosi link!

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=1487

A NATO-Russia missile defense exercise
Filed under:

* General

— site admin @ 11:17 am

Yes, it’s theater anti-missile defense (not strategic), but it’s also another step to a “global” limited protection system against NoKo and Iran type nuts. Here’s the NATO press release.

I’d like to see some reporting on this exercise but I suspect outside of StrategyPage I won’t. If someone comes up with something (other than a rewrite of the press release) please provide the link in a comment.

Long excerpt:

Under the aegis of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC), the Theatre Missile Defence Ad Hoc Working Group (TMD AHWG) will conduct the third joint NATO-Russia TMD Command Post Exercise (CPX) from 16-25 October 2006 at the Russian Simulation Facility located in the Research and Development Center of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation.

The purpose of this third CPX is to validate the Experimental Concept and associated Experimental Concept of Operations (CONOPS) developed by the joint NATO-Russia TMD Ad Hoc Working Group. Over sixty participants from eleven NATO nations and eighty participants from the Russian Federation are going to take part in CPX3. Additional support and participation will be provided by the NATO Military Authorities (NMAs), the International Staff (IS), the tri-national(1) Extended Air Defence Task Force (EADTF) and the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation.

This is the third in a series of joint NATO-Russia TMD exercises. The initial CPX was conducted at the Joint National Integration Center (JNIC) in the United States in 2004. Last year The Netherlands hosted Cooperative Optic Windmill (CPX2) at De Peel Airbase. This third CPX will build on the work conducted previously and be a prelude for a first Field Training Exercise, provisionally scheduled for autumn 2007.
​

Here’s a NATO backgrounder. The program ultimately intends to protect “alliance forces, territory and populations against missile threats.”

I guarantee this program leverages US ABM research and development.

Someone tell Nancy Pelosi her European pals are worried. And they want ABMs. (Scroll through the post to find Pelosi’s quote. Also look through the comments and find Comment 19. Read the quote gleaned from Rep Ellen Tauscher’s site.)

 

[Gunny]

I also saw it reported on the news that Chinese border troops are searching everything coming in and going out. At least they did it long enough for a newsclip.

 

[Annie]

I also saw it reported on the news that Chinese border troops are searching everything coming in and going out. At least they did it long enough for a newsclip.

Yep and for several reasons, seems China has lost faith with NK. It didn't happen overnight:

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htintel/articles/20061018.aspx

North Korea Invades China

October 18, 2006: China and North Korea have been fighting a minor war over the collection of intelligence inside North Korea. While the North Korean border is, technically, closed very tight, the border guards can be bribed, and North Korea has given up trying to stamp that out completely. So China is able to get spies (usually Chinese who are ethnic Koreans, as are millions of people in northern China) into North Korea, and use cash to recruit more North Koreans as spies, so that China will have a better idea of what is going on inside North Korea. This battle has been going on for several years, and got really serious back in 2003, when North Korean agents paid a large bribe ($300,000) to a Chinese intelligence official, to get the names of Chinese agents operating inside North Korea. The agents were rounded up, interrogated and, most of them were killed. The Chinese were not happy with this, and stepped up their intelligence efforts, bringing in some top talent to make it happen.



The Chinese now have a pretty good idea of what is happening inside North Korea, courtesy of their new agent network. In fact, the new espionage effort has worked it's way up the North Korean chain of command, to include some senior officials. This has made the North Koreans fearful that the Chinese are planning a coup. The Chinese may not be doing that, but it is known that there is a "pro-Chinese" faction within the North Korean government. This group wants to reform the economy, like China has done (and is urging the North Koreans to do). But the "royalist" (pro Kim dynasty) faction fears too much prosperity. That's because, with more wealth, would come more information about the outside world. North Koreans would thus discover how they have been royally screwed by the Kim dynasty. That might create a violent reaction, and the death or exile of the current leadership.



Meanwhile, the intelligence war has now gotten more violent. On October 16th, five North Korean operatives, in civilian clothes, entered China, and tried to kidnap a Chinese intelligence official from a Chinese military base near the border. There was a struggle, there was gunfire, and at least one Chinese soldier was killed. The North Koreans, who apparently failed in their "snatch and run" mission, were seeking to get names of North Koreans working for Chinese intelligence inside North Korea. "Invading" Chine to carry out this task is pretty bold, but not unusual for the North Koreans. Naturally, the Chinese are not happy. The Chinese demanded that the North Korean "raiders" be turned over, but the North Koreans refused. That enraged many senior generals in the Chinese army, who are demanding that something be done. Like revoking the "Mutual Defense Pact" with North Korea. Or maybe supporting a coup to remove the current North Korean leadership.

and from the neighborhood:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/printpage/0,5942,20587473,00.html

China may back coup against Kim
Michael Sheridan, Beijing
16oct06

THE Chinese are openly debating "regime change" in Pyongyang after last week's nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour.

Diplomats in Beijing said at the weekend that China and all the major US allies believed North Korea's claim that it had detonated a nuclear device. US director of national intelligence John Negroponte circulated a report that radiation had been detected at a site not far from the Chinese border.

The US may have employed highly classified satellite technology to detect tiny leaks of gas or elements associated with nuclear detonation, according to a diplomatic source in the Chinese capital. This would explain Washington's reluctance to explain the findings in public.

The Washington Times disclosed that US spy satellites photographed North Koreans playing volleyball just a few hundred metres from a test site tunnel after the underground explosion.

The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats.

Ahead of yesterday's Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese "reformist" faction inside the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"In today's DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist," one Chinese analyst wrote online. "The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il's royal family. That's why Kim is against reform. He's not stupid."

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China's ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper - available online in China - bluntly saying: "I suggest China should make an end of Kim's Government."

"The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il," commented one diplomat. "The question is, what are they going to do about it?"

Hinting at the options, Chinese online military commentators have exposed plots and purges inside North Korea that were previously unknown or unconfirmed. They have described three attempted coups that ended in bloodshed. In 1996, the Sixth Field Army was planning to revolt but the scheme was betrayed by a new commander. One or two plotters got away but Kim Jong-il's personal guards arrested senior officers and the Sixth Field Army's political commissars.

On March 12, 1998, Kim suddenly announced a martial law "exercise" in Pyongyang and there was gunfire in the streets of the city. The Chinese later learned that two ministries were involved in a coup attempt, and that more than 20 ministerial-level officials were killed after it was crushed.

In October 1999, a company of the Third Field Army rebelled in dissatisfaction over grain distribution during the nation's prolonged famine, which may have killed a million people.

There are rumours that Kim's eldest son, Jong-nam, is estranged from his father and living in the Chinese capital, where he enjoys a reputation as a capricious imbiber of whisky. A younger son, Jong-chol, has emerged as heir apparent.

Meanwhile, some of the North Korean elite are seeking their boltholes in China.

Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.

The Sunday Times