How to Really Know Who Will Win?

[Paul Motter]

In 2016, I had a feeling Hillary knew she was tits up when she canceled her fireworks display on the afternoon of election day - long before any state victories were called. In the end, the only day-before "tells" that Trump would win were

1) The Trump team's internal polling
(2) The crowd enthusiasm at his rallies

On election day, the irrefutable "FiveThirtyEight" (which at the time was part of the NY Times staff) said Hillary had over a 70% chance of winning - and yet she lost. Fox/WSJ polling was also notoriously bad in 2016 as it is again this year. One of the closer polls was RealClearPolitics, which today shows Trump doing far better than most other polls. This year they have neither candidate winning the electoral college (Biden is in the lead but not over the top), but they have 187 tossup electoral votes.

So, I go back to (1) Republican polling and (2) voter enthusiasm. Trump's team is still extremely confident here.

How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone? - NOT even AOC has said she supports his policies, she said she believes he can be "molded." The man is lifeless and seems incapable of even speaking coherently. And what about Kamala? Why is she NOT campaigning? She doesn't need a nap every day.

If anything has changed, there is far more diversity in the Trump crowds than ever before AND the Trump pollsters say they are seeing far more democrats and undecideds at their rallies than in 2016.

 

[Chuz Life]

In 2016 I had a feeling Hillary knew she was tits up when she canceled her fireworks display on the afternoon of election day - long before any state victories were called. In the end, the only "tells" we had that Trump would win was 1) The Trump team's internal polling, and (2) the crowd enthusiasm at his rallies.

On election day, the irrefutable "FiveThirtyEight" (which at the time was part of the NY Times staff) said Hillary had over a 70% chance of winning - and yet she lost. Fox/WSJ polling was also notoriously bad in 2016 as it is again this year. One of the closer polls was RealClearPolitics, which today shows Trump doing far better than most other polls. This year they have neither candidate winning the electoral college (Biden is in the lead but not over the top), but they have 187 tossup electoral votes.

So, I go back to (1) Republican polling and (2) voter enthusiasm.

How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone? - NOT even AOC has said she supports his policies, she said she believes he can be "molded." The man is lifeless and seems incapable of even speaking coherently. And what about Kamala? Why is she NOT campaigning? She doesn't need a nap every day.

If anything has changed, there is far more diversity in the Trump crowds than ever before AND the Trump pollsters say they are seeing far more democrats and undecideds at their rallies than in 2016.

Informative.

 

[kyzr]

In 2016 I had a feeling Hillary knew she was tits up when she canceled her fireworks display on the afternoon of election day - long before any state victories were called. In the end, the only "tells" we had that Trump would win was 1) The Trump team's internal polling, and (2) the crowd enthusiasm at his rallies.

On election day, the irrefutable "FiveThirtyEight" (which at the time was part of the NY Times staff) said Hillary had over a 70% chance of winning - and yet she lost. Fox/WSJ polling was also notoriously bad in 2016 as it is again this year. One of the closer polls was RealClearPolitics, which today shows Trump doing far better than most other polls. This year they have neither candidate winning the electoral college (Biden is in the lead but not over the top), but they have 187 tossup electoral votes.

So, I go back to (1) Republican polling and (2) voter enthusiasm.

How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone? - NOT even AOC has said she supports his policies, she said she believes he can be "molded." The man is lifeless and seems incapable of even speaking coherently. And what about Kamala? Why is she NOT campaigning? She doesn't need a nap every day.

If anything has changed, there is far more diversity in the Trump crowds than ever before AND the Trump pollsters say they are seeing far more democrats and undecideds at their rallies than in 2016.

The only poll that I recall getting Trump's 2016 win right was IBD, Investors Business Daily.
Biden has a 2.7 point lead, basically a tie.

Biden Job Approval, Direction Of Country: IBD/TIPP Poll

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index tracks President Biden's job approval rating and the overall leadership index.

www.investors.com

 

[Paul Motter]

My bigger point is that POLLING IS USELESS - at least when it comes to this candidate and also this election. There has never been an election with more variables:

1. We actually have two incumbent candidates since Biden is a Swamp Creature and has been VP.
2. We have the "pandemic" which is more likely to suppress voter turnout than any other effect.
3. We have a democratic candidate that has a more checkered past than even Hillary - he is a child-sniffer, family-favor giver, who has been wrong on many major policy decisions in his career. He also does not have the support of the progressive arm of Democrats. How many progressives have you seen avidly saying they love Joe Biden?

People are saying "This is Joe's election to lose." - but they are acting like it is Trump's election to lose; the libs continue to criticize and misrepresent his "racist" policies (which have never been true). The lengths people will go to just to criticize Trump is actually laughable.

I wavered a little after the debate, but there are still two more debates and plenty of time. This is still far from over.

 

[mamooth]

So, I go back to (1) Republican polling

Which says "Oh god we're losing so big we have to keep this secret".

and (2) voter enthusiasm. Trump's team is still extremely confident here.

The Trump team is in hiding. The other Republican candidates are stampeding to distance themself from Trump. He's got the stench of a loser about him.

How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone?

We're Democrats. We don't do the messiah thing. And not being sociopaths, we don't kill our fellow party-members with rallies that spread COVID. We are, however, excited about the upcoming blue wave. In contrast, the Trump cult looks demoralized.

 

[Toro]

Why is polling "useless?" In 2016, the RCP averages were within 1.1% of the actual vote. That's within the margin of error, i.e. meaning they were correct.

What was wrong was the assumption that if you won the national vote, you won the EC. What was also wrong were the polls at the state level, particularly in the Midwest. And in a few cases, by a lot.

So what did the polling firms do? They poured tons more resources into state polling. There are double the number of polls in the six swing states - AZ FL MI NC PA and WI - and the methodologies are better. So the polls are better in those states today than they were four years ago.

And those polls show Biden with a substantial lead in AZ MI PA and WI. And those are enough to flip the election to Biden. He is also leading in FL and NC. He is also leading in GA and OH, and he's within the margin of error in IA and TX, where Trump leads.

This is a very different election than 2016. First, there are less undecided. In the last days of the election, the number of undecided averaged 10% in those six swing states. Today, it is just over 6%. Undecideds broke heavily towards Trump because people decided they had enough of Hillary Clinton and decided to try something different.

But Trump is no longer "different." He's been in office for four years, and consistently has had negative polling numbers. People don't hate Biden like they did Hillary. Hillary's net disapproval numbers were second highest on record, bested only be Trump. Today, Biden has net positive favorability.

You can see that in the numbers. The decline in Hillary's vote from 2012 was bigger than the gain in Trump's vote and 3rd party candidates combined in IA OH and WI. That is more an indictment of Hillary than anything. Biden is not going to have that problem.

The other thing that happened in 2016 is that the black vote went down, and by a lot, 7%. The decline in the black vote exceeded Trump's margin of victory in MI and PA. In large part, it was Hillary's inability to win enough of the black vote that ultimately cost her the election. They are coming back in size.

Also, the number who voted 3rd-party was the highest since 1996 when Ross Perot last ran. 5.7% of Americans voted for 3rd-party in 2016 compared to 1.4% and 1.0% in the previous two elections.

What that all means is that Trump is further behind now than he was in 2016, but there are fewer votes up in the air for him to capture.

Finally, those looking at rallies is interesting, but you are not seeing is the intense dislike of Trump amongst a sizeable portion of the electorate. In every election since polling began, the Republicans won white college-educated voters. Trump won them by 5% in 2016. Today, he's trailing by double-digits. And that's because of the intense disapproval mainly of white college-educated women. In that cohort, he is seeing declines of 20% to 30%. White college-educated women account for a greater share of the electorate than blacks or Hispanics. College-educated whites are why the Democrats hammered the Republicans in 2018, and why the Republicans are collapsing in the suburbs now.

Also note that Biden is now leading amongst seniors, a group Trump won by 8% in 2016. This is due to Trump's handling of the coronavirus.

Trump can still win the election of course. But people are making a big mistake by thinking 2020 is just like 2016, like many Trump supporters are doing.

 

[Paul Motter]

So, I go back to (1) Republican polling

Which says "Oh god we're losing so big we have to keep this secret".

and (2) voter enthusiasm. Trump's team is still extremely confident here.

The Trump team is in hiding. The other Republican candidates are stampeding to distance themself from Trump. He's got the stench of a loser about him.

How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone?

We're Democrats. We don't do the messiah thing. And not being sociopaths, we don't kill our fellow party-members with rallies that spread COVID. We are, however, excited about the upcoming blue wave. In contrast, the Trump cult looks demoralized.

I admit things seem a little gloomy right now - tough debate, a brutal media that is SO in the pocket of Democrats that alone is demoralizing. But was it any different in 2016? Absolutely not. If anything it looked even more like a Hillary win. But this year, no has any confidence in Biden. He is a place-holder. But for whom? Kamala?

Sorry, but when the Dems picked Biden (solely because of Jim Clyburn) they immediately gave off that "it's his turn" vibe that says "we never expected to win anyway" - similar to Bob Dole, Al Gore and John McCain.

 

[kyzr]

Why is polling "useless?" In 2016, the RCP averages were within 1.1% of the actual vote. That's within the margin of error, i.e. meaning they were correct.

What was wrong was the assumption that if you won the national vote, you won the EC. What was also wrong were the polls at the state level, particularly in the Midwest. And in a few cases, by a lot.

So what did the polling firms do? They poured tons more resources into state polling. There are double the number of polls in the six swing states - AZ FL MI NC PA and WI - and the methodologies are better. So the polls are better in those states today than they were four years ago.

And those polls show Biden with a substantial lead in AZ MI PA and WI. And those are enough to flip the election to Biden. He is also leading in FL and NC. He is also leading in GA and OH, and he's within the margin of error in IA and TX, where Trump leads.

This is a very different election than 2016. First, there are less undecided. In the last days of the election, the number of undecided averaged 10% in those six swing states. Today, it is just over 6%. Undecideds broke heavily towards Trump because people decided they had enough of Hillary Clinton and decided to try something different.

But Trump is no longer "different." He's been in office for four years, and consistently has had negative polling numbers. People don't hate Biden like they did Hillary. Hillary's net disapproval numbers were second highest on record, bested only be Trump. Today, Biden has net positive favorability.

You can see that in the numbers. The decline in Hillary's vote from 2012 was bigger than the gain in Trump's vote and 3rd party candidates combined in IA OH and WI. That is more an indictment of Hillary than anything. Biden is not going to have that problem.

The other thing that happened in 2016 is that the black vote went down, and by a lot, 7%. The decline in the black vote exceeded Trump's margin of victory in MI and PA. In large part, it was Hillary's inability to win enough of the black vote that ultimately cost her the election. They are coming back in size.

Also, the number who voted 3rd-party was the highest since 1996 when Ross Perot last ran. 5.7% of Americans voted for 3rd-party in 2016 compared to 1.4% and 1.0% in the previous two elections.

What that all means is that Trump is further behind now than he was in 2016, but there are fewer votes up in the air for him to capture.

Finally, those looking at rallies is interesting, but you are not seeing is the intense dislike of Trump amongst a sizeable portion of the electorate. In every election since polling began, the Republicans won white college-educated voters. Trump won them by 5% in 2016. Today, he's trailing by double-digits. And that's because of the intense disapproval mainly of white college-educated women. In that cohort, he is seeing declines of 20% to 30%. White college-educated women account for a greater share of the electorate than blacks or Hispanics. College-educated whites are why the Democrats hammered the Republicans in 2018, and why the Republicans are collapsing in the suburbs now.

Also note that Biden is now leading amongst seniors, a group Trump won by 8% in 2016. This is due to Trump's handling of the coronavirus.

Trump can still win the election of course. But people are making a big mistake by thinking 2020 is just like 2016, like many Trump supporters are doing.

1. 2016 was a democrat disaster. Hillary had a 95% probability of winning, and she lost. 2020 will be similar, but closer.


2. 2018 was due to the democrats' Mueller Hoax, saying Trump was a Russian asset.

3. 2020 will be a test of voters to see what kind of US we want to live in. Will the voters vote with the police, or vote with the criminals?

 

[Paul Motter]

It isn't the "hate factor" that is Biden's problem, it is the "Never underestimate the ability of Joe to really fuck things up" factor (as stated by Barack Obama).

Two things from today alone:

 

[Paul Motter]

Why is polling "useless?" The assumption that if you won the national vote, you won the EC.

But Trump is no longer "different." He's been in office for four years, and consistently has had negative polling numbers. People don't hate Biden like they did Hillary. Hillary's net disapproval numbers were second highest on record, bested only be Trump. Today, Biden has net positive favorability.

But does he have positive "electability?" I don't think so - I think he is extremely weak and feckless, and those personalities never win (think Jimmy Carter's second election, which he lost). Biden has already been a VP, people know him and his record. He has never proven he can lead anything. He was in charge of "TARP" because "nothing gets past Joe" - so, what did TARP do?

What do people remember about Obamacare - a failed web site that a high school programmer could have built, and the individual mandate where YOUNG PEOPLE (college age) had to pay penalty taxes for NOT having health care.

The polls were wrong in 2016, and they are changing constantly this year so your theory that every vote is already baked in is incorrect. There are more base-voters, but the undecideds are very undecided this year. And most important, I doubt there are any "closet Biden voters." But I know for a fact the "closet Trump supporter" is a real thing.

 

[candycorn]

In 2016, I had a feeling Hillary knew she was tits up when she canceled her fireworks display on the afternoon of election day - long before any state victories were called. In the end, the only day-before "tells" that Trump would win were

1) The Trump team's internal polling
(2) The crowd enthusiasm at his rallies

On election day, the irrefutable "FiveThirtyEight" (which at the time was part of the NY Times staff) said Hillary had over a 70% chance of winning - and yet she lost. Fox/WSJ polling was also notoriously bad in 2016 as it is again this year. One of the closer polls was RealClearPolitics, which today shows Trump doing far better than most other polls. This year they have neither candidate winning the electoral college (Biden is in the lead but not over the top), but they have 187 tossup electoral votes.

So, I go back to (1) Republican polling and (2) voter enthusiasm. Trump's team is still extremely confident here.

How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone? - NOT even AOC has said she supports his policies, she said she believes he can be "molded." The man is lifeless and seems incapable of even speaking coherently. And what about Kamala? Why is she NOT campaigning? She doesn't need a nap every day.

If anything has changed, there is far more diversity in the Trump crowds than ever before AND the Trump pollsters say they are seeing far more democrats and undecideds at their rallies than in 2016.

Gotta wait until all of the votes are counted. The electors meet in early-mid December. They have to have a small window to travel to the capitols of the states so we should know in early December at the latest.
Most states will announce on election night. Larger states will have to start counting their ballots. And then you will have the court challenges.

My guess is that at least one red state will stage a "floor fight" where they blow whatever improprieties there are out of proportion to assist the narrative of a contested election. Probably one of the small-medium sized states. You won't see it in Texas or Florida (if they go red). Maybe Arizona since it is critical to the blob's re-election. If it flips (and it's looking like it actually will), Biden losses in New Hampshire or Minnesota are blunted.

 

[Chuz Life]

It isn't the "hate factor" that is Biden's problem, it is the "Never underestimate the ability of Joe to really fuck things up" factor (as stated by Barack Obama).

Two things from today alone:

Just fucking, WOW!

 

[Paul Motter]

It isn't the "hate factor" that is Biden's problem, it is the "Never underestimate the ability of Joe to really fuck things up" factor (as stated by Barack Obama).

Two things from today alone:

Just fucking, WOW!

"And these young ladies, I want to see them dancing when they're four years older, too." - in other words, "I really liked watching these young girls dance!"

I wonder how many times he watched "Cuties?"

 

[Oddball]

Why is polling "useless?" In 2016, the RCP averages were within 1.1% of the actual vote. That's within the margin of error, i.e. meaning they were correct.

What was wrong was the assumption that if you won the national vote, you won the EC. What was also wrong were the polls at the state level, particularly in the Midwest. And in a few cases, by a lot.

So what did the polling firms do? They poured tons more resources into state polling. There are double the number of polls in the six swing states - AZ FL MI NC PA and WI - and the methodologies are better. So the polls are better in those states today than they were four years ago.

And those polls show Biden with a substantial lead in AZ MI PA and WI. And those are enough to flip the election to Biden. He is also leading in FL and NC. He is also leading in GA and OH, and he's within the margin of error in IA and TX, where Trump leads.

This is a very different election than 2016. First, there are less undecided. In the last days of the election, the number of undecided averaged 10% in those six swing states. Today, it is just over 6%. Undecideds broke heavily towards Trump because people decided they had enough of Hillary Clinton and decided to try something different.

But Trump is no longer "different." He's been in office for four years, and consistently has had negative polling numbers. People don't hate Biden like they did Hillary. Hillary's net disapproval numbers were second highest on record, bested only be Trump. Today, Biden has net positive favorability.

You can see that in the numbers. The decline in Hillary's vote from 2012 was bigger than the gain in Trump's vote and 3rd party candidates combined in IA OH and WI. That is more an indictment of Hillary than anything. Biden is not going to have that problem.

The other thing that happened in 2016 is that the black vote went down, and by a lot, 7%. The decline in the black vote exceeded Trump's margin of victory in MI and PA. In large part, it was Hillary's inability to win enough of the black vote that ultimately cost her the election. They are coming back in size.

Also, the number who voted 3rd-party was the highest since 1996 when Ross Perot last ran. 5.7% of Americans voted for 3rd-party in 2016 compared to 1.4% and 1.0% in the previous two elections.

What that all means is that Trump is further behind now than he was in 2016, but there are fewer votes up in the air for him to capture.

Finally, those looking at rallies is interesting, but you are not seeing is the intense dislike of Trump amongst a sizeable portion of the electorate. In every election since polling began, the Republicans won white college-educated voters. Trump won them by 5% in 2016. Today, he's trailing by double-digits. And that's because of the intense disapproval mainly of white college-educated women. In that cohort, he is seeing declines of 20% to 30%. White college-educated women account for a greater share of the electorate than blacks or Hispanics. College-educated whites are why the Democrats hammered the Republicans in 2018, and why the Republicans are collapsing in the suburbs now.

Also note that Biden is now leading amongst seniors, a group Trump won by 8% in 2016. This is due to Trump's handling of the coronavirus.

Trump can still win the election of course. But people are making a big mistake by thinking 2020 is just like 2016, like many Trump supporters are doing.

This is a very different election than 2016. First, there are less undecided. In the last days of the election, the number of undecided averaged 10% in those six swing states. Today, it is just over 6%. Undecideds broke heavily towards Trump because people decided they had enough of Hillary Clinton and decided to try something different.

What that all means is that Trump is further behind now than he was in 2016, but there are fewer votes up in the air for him to capture.

Fewer undecided.

True as all that is, the undecideds historically break heavily in favor of the incumbent, when there is one.

Also, I believe something is being overlooked here: sideline sitters....Numbers released from Trump's rallies show that up to 20% of the attendees are people who haven't voted in a long time, if ever...Many of whom are also unregistered.

Enter Jesse Ventura.

Jesse won by converting around 12 or so (can't remember the exact number) of the constituency that had been sitting on the sidelines into his camp.....Now, even though I'd be a fool to say that this translates into any kind of immense national trend, these potential voters don't show up in "normal" (as normal as that gets) polling practices.....If this is a national trend, it could end up being the bushwhack of the century.

Not making any bold prediction one way or the other, I'm just sayin'.

 

[two_iron]

We're Democrats. We don't do the messiah thing. And not being sociopaths, we don't kill our fellow party-members with rallies that spread COVID. We are, however, excited about the upcoming blue wave. In contrast, the Trump cult looks demoralized.

Huh? You had marxist shitstains fainting at the mere sight of the kenyan lawn jockey. Remember? You had little kids in school chanting songs about Zero. That's the very definition of a satanic cult.

Also, Plugs couldn't draw flies with a pile of shit in each hand. This qualifies as a Xiden rally. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Paul Motter]

I am watching the Biden town hall on NBC tonight. The first 20 minutes (1/3 the show) was literally solely about wearing masks. No wonder the libs are wetting the bed tonight. If you have Trump telling people "I have had COVID and you should not let it ruin your life" (ie: shut down businesses and schools) you are usurping Biden's entire campaign message. He only has two assets, the "deer in the headlights stare" and his supposedly better "stand on COVID" which is all about generic "science."

There is no word more overused by liberals these days than "science."

 

[Oddball]

I am watching the Biden town hall on NBC tonight. The first 20 minutes (1/3 the show) was literally solely about wearing masks. No wonder the libs are wetting the bed tonight. If you have Trump telling people "I have had COVID and you should not let it ruin your life" (ie: shut down businesses and schools) you are usurping Biden's entire campaign message. He only has two assets, the "deer in the headlights stare" and his supposedly better "stand on COVID" which is all about generic "science."

There is no word more overused by liberals these days than "science."

I watched Antiques Roadshow and Penn & Teller's Fool Us.

My evening of teevee watching was obviously better than yours.

 

[USApatriotz]

Democrats only win when they have MASSIVE enthusiasm behind their candidate like Bill Clinton and Obama. Nobody is excited about near 80 year old Biden & Kampala is so uninspiring that she only got TWO percent in the primary and only 5% of the black vote! She was SO bad that she had to DROP OUT before the very first primary in Iowa!!

Hillary was more exciting than Biden is!

 

[kyzr]

Vegas has the race dead even again...

 

[mamooth]

Huh? You had marxist shitstains fainting at the mere sight of the kenyan lawn jockey. Remember?

Marxists? You shouldn't be drink and post.

Take the most fanatic Obama worshipper, multiply their devotion a hundred fold, and it still doesn't come close to the devotion of the average Trump cultist. Multiple it a thosuand fold, and it won't come close to your fanaticism.

Again, Democrats don't do cults of personality. We are not like you.

This qualifies as a Xiden rally.

So first you have a meltdown about enthusiastic Democratics, then you have a meltdown about unenthusiastic Democrats. Can you make up your mind.

In any case, it Biden +16 in the last poll. Biden is bitch-slapping you hard. No wonder you're in full-panic deflection mode. Have you considered what you'll do after the Trump cult collapses? The smarter rats have already jumped ship. They're counting on the stupid rats like you to go down with the ship as they escape.