Soo...Biden can win quick...Trump slower..and it may take weeks.
Of the six key swing states that will most likely determine the election, the general expectation is that Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward. Of course, the closer the margin in any of these states is, the longer it will take to settle who won, and unexpected problems may arise. But these states have at least done the bare minimum to prepare for the unprecedented number of mailed ballots pouring in this year.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump’s victory in 2016 — are a different story. Republican legislatures in each have almost totally refused to update antiquated policies on how mailed ballots will be processed and counted. So these states could take days to come even close to finishing their counts. And if the in-person vote is more pro-Trump than the mail vote in these states, the slow mail count could leave the impression Trump is ahead on election night, even if that’s incorrect.
The way the electoral math works, Trump almost certainly can’t win the presidency without winning at least one of those three slow-counting states. That means that, barring a catastrophic polling error flipping undreamed-of states in Trump’s favor, he is probably not going to be called the winner on election night. His path to victory goes through the slow states.
Biden, though, is on the offensive in several other states Trump won last time — states that are expected to be relatively quicker at counting. If Biden flips must-win states for Trump like Florida or North Carolina, he’s almost certain to win the presidency. The same would hold true if he scores surprising wins in some of his reach states, like Georgia, Ohio, or Texas.
Conversely, if Trump manages to hold on in those states — or if they are so close that they remain uncalled — then settle in for a long few days. This is going to take a while.
Of the six key swing states that will most likely determine the election, the general expectation is that Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward. Of course, the closer the margin in any of these states is, the longer it will take to settle who won, and unexpected problems may arise. But these states have at least done the bare minimum to prepare for the unprecedented number of mailed ballots pouring in this year.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — the trio of states that clinched Trump’s victory in 2016 — are a different story. Republican legislatures in each have almost totally refused to update antiquated policies on how mailed ballots will be processed and counted. So these states could take days to come even close to finishing their counts. And if the in-person vote is more pro-Trump than the mail vote in these states, the slow mail count could leave the impression Trump is ahead on election night, even if that’s incorrect.
The way the electoral math works, Trump almost certainly can’t win the presidency without winning at least one of those three slow-counting states. That means that, barring a catastrophic polling error flipping undreamed-of states in Trump’s favor, he is probably not going to be called the winner on election night. His path to victory goes through the slow states.
Biden, though, is on the offensive in several other states Trump won last time — states that are expected to be relatively quicker at counting. If Biden flips must-win states for Trump like Florida or North Carolina, he’s almost certain to win the presidency. The same would hold true if he scores surprising wins in some of his reach states, like Georgia, Ohio, or Texas.
Conversely, if Trump manages to hold on in those states — or if they are so close that they remain uncalled — then settle in for a long few days. This is going to take a while.
Last edited:
