How Do You Predict The Coming Elections Will Turn Out?

[Annie]

While I had changed my mind about the probable change in the House prior to the Foley matter, now I think the Dems will win the governorships, the House and probably the Senate. What that will portend over the next two years will play out over time.

I don't think all polls can be that wrong, though many could flip:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/

 

[Avatar4321]

I still think the Republicans will gain seats in both houses. I couldnt care less about the governorships other than mine. However, I also know its unlikely we will regain that one so i dont really care.

Yeah Foley crap is stupid and bad, but i dont think people are going to be going into the voting both thinking "oh i cant believe that corrupt Congressman from Florida said bad things to those young adults" I think people are going to be in there voting on the issues. And Republicans win on the issues everytime.

I also dont even think we are going to lose Foley's seat. (hence why I always said the leadership has no motivation to cover up Foley, the seat was never in danger).

I also know we have a good chance to pick up a senate seat in New Jersey. And I think the Florida Senate race could be a surprise upset.

I think if Murtha keeps opening his mouth we can have that seat too. we have alot to defend but i think we can do it.

But the Democrats are acting as though its already over and they won. So i cant imagine how they are going to react when they lose. And trust me they are going to lose.

 

[Bonnie]

I think it all depends how the GOP gets their base out to vote. We shall see soon enough.

 

[onedomino]

At the University of California, I do not meet many conservatives. My perception of the student population is that the depth of animosity toward Bush has deepened. At this point it’s visceral, and people are not interested in debating the facts. The atmosphere reminds me of that self-possessed, I’m-on-TV, hyperbolic, YouTube fiasco at Columbia, where the protesters shouted down the Minutemen while waving at the cameramen. But then Berkeley (where I am until December) has always seemed like that, even when the rest of the nation is calm. San Francisco is the Pluto of America’s political solar system. Talk radio in SF is like listening to Isvestya. Sorry for the digression. Republicans? If the elections were held tomorrow, I think they’d lose the House and barely retain the Senate. But hey, it’s early, there’s three weeks to go. America is bound to lose attention eight more times between now and then. The Governator looks like he might barely skate by; which underlines just how wasted is his Democrat challenger. Angelides creeps people out. He is a disturbing ganglion on the forehead of California. Do I care if the Republicans lose the House? More than if they lose the Senate. In the past, I have found a few positive reasons to vote for Republicans. Not this year. The Repubs have done a spectacularly poor job on issues such as immigration, energy, deficit spending, and others. The only reason that I will vote for these incompetent elephants is that the alternative is startlingly worse. Solve our energy problems by drilling in Alaska? Right. Hey Hastert, throw another shot glass of water on that forest fire. But Nancy Pelosi? She makes Prozac seem like kool-aid. The kool-aid.

 

[Annie]

At the University of California, I do not meet many conservatives. My perception of the student population is that the depth of animosity toward Bush has deepened. At this point it’s visceral, and people are not interested in debating the facts. The atmosphere reminds me of that self-possessed, I’m-on-TV, hyperbolic, YouTube fiasco at Columbia, where the protesters shouted down the Minutemen while waving at the cameramen. But then Berkeley (where I am until December) has always seemed like that, even when the rest of the nation is calm. San Francisco is the Pluto of America’s political solar system. Talk radio in SF is like listening to Isvestya. Sorry for the digression. Republicans? If the elections were held tomorrow, I think they’d lose the House and barely retain the Senate. But hey, it’s early, there’s three weeks to go. America is bound to lose attention eight more times between now and then. The Governator looks like he might barely skate by; which underlines just how wasted is his Democrat challenger. Angelides creeps people out. He is a disturbing ganglion on the forehead of California. Do I care if the Republicans lose the House? More than if they lose the Senate. In the past, I have found a few positive reasons to vote for Republicans. Not this year. The Repubs have done a spectacularly poor job on issues such as immigration, energy, deficit spending, and others. The only reason that I will vote for these incompetent elephants is that the alternative is startlingly worse. Solve our energy problems by drilling in Alaska? Right. Hey Hastert, throw another shot glass of water on that forest fire. But Nancy Pelosi? She makes Prozac seem like kool-aid. The kool-aid.

I think both you and Bonnie are right in different ways. Much does depend on voter turn out. I always think the democratic base seems so angry, they will, but they never do. Hopefully that will happen again.

Three weeks is forever in politics.

 

[William Joyce]

One reason to vote for your lousy local Republican boy-diddler:

Immigration.

If Dems win, we can say hello to Jorge Bush's amnesty plan. The Republicans were just barely holding out against it.

 

[Redhots]

How Do You Predict The Coming Elections Will Turn Out?

Diebold in a landslide.

 

[Redhots]

I think Ohio is going to go blue though.

Noe + Abramoff + Foley + Bush = too much.

 

[trobinett]

Never been good at predictions, but I'll bite.

The Dem's will gain in the House, really a "non-issue", IMHO.

At the worst, the Dem's gain 1, maybe 2 seats in the Senate, but I really see the Republicans gaining in the Senate.

I've never really followed the races in other States that much, but I don't see the National issues bleeding over into the local elections except maybe on the East, and West Coast.

Over all, kind of a "non-event".

Oh, Asa Hutchinson will win the Governorship in Arkansas.

 

[Rico]

The enemies of man (dems) will win the House and it's close in the Senate. The American people will get the gov't. they abhore. Increased taxes. Oh yeah. Cut and run nat'l security; you bet. Gay marriage-- A#1. Wow. Al Queda gets to win at the ballot box. Speaker Pelosi. Perhaps the Second Civil War is even closer than I thought.

 

[nt250]

What are the actual numbers? Does anybody know?

Is there a site that is tracking it so you can tell how many seats are really in play? I tried Googling it but I suck at searching multiple word subjects.

The only one I know of is that Chaffee's senate seat in RI looks like it's going to go to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

 

[Redhots]

I don't know about the House, around 50 I think, but it would be 33/34 in the Senate.

 

[Redhots]

A "Deep Blue Sea" in the 2006 Midterms?
Small Craft Advisory becomes Gale Warning for GOP

Just a few weeks ago, President Bush and the GOP appeared to be staging a remarkable comeback that would have enabled the Republicans to retain their congressional majorities. The Foley scandal and the deteriorating situation in Iraq have changed all that, and it is clear that as of mid-October, there is a Democratic gale a blowin'. We all hope that Samuel L. Jackson isn't eaten by a shark again, but it's looking like the GOP's worst fear might be about to surface.

Democrats are moving up--some rapidly--in a wide range of competitive contests for the House, the Foley storm's chamber of direct impact. For the first time this year, your cautious Crystal Ball now projects a Democratic majority of somewhere between 221 and 225 seats (with 218 needed for control). In fact, to reflect just how precipitously many GOP-held seats have drifted from safe harbor, we have had to jettison not only the "Dirty Thirty" but now the "Ferocious Forty" as well. In their place, meet the "Ferocious FIFTY" theaters of battle, 42 of which are currently held by Republicans. It is indeed noteworthy that since last month's update, the Crystal Ball can now count an additional ten House districts as truly competitive (rated either as a Toss-up or "leaning" towards one party in our chart below).

In the Senate we believe that control of the body is up for grabs, with Democrats nearly sure to win 15 out of the 33 total seats up this year. Four more seats are on the edge but leaning slightly towards the Democrats. The five total toss-ups will determine which party organizes the upper chamber, and the Democrats will likely need to capture all five of them to take control, a reasonable possibility given the dynamics of each race in that category.

For Democrats, the best part of election night might be in the statehouses. The Crystal Ball believes that when the votes are counted, Democrats will have between 26 and 28 Governors, up from the current 22--and they are likely gaining seats in the vital states of Ohio and New York.

Can these forecasts change? Is the Pope German? But at this point, the probability is that the shifts will primarily be fine-tuning. There are only three possible outcomes in the House, for instance. Either the GOP will maintain its majority by a wafer-thin margin, or the Democrats will get their own small majority, or the Democrats will break through for a sizeable majority. Options two and three--or something in between them--now appear likely. In the Senate, the alternatives are dramatically diminished GOP control or the slimmest of Democratic majorities, with the fates pointing to the tiniest edge still for a Republican Majority Leader. In the statehouses, important Democratic gains are literally certain.

Please pay attention to this cautionary note: Just as the headlines, and the drift of this election, shifted almost overnight in a Democratic direction in the past two weeks, so too can events at home and abroad transform the headlines again. Do you really think Mark Foley will be Page One all the way to November 7th? Does anyone doubt that Karl Rove has some October surprises up his sleeve--surprises that will cause professionals to grin and chuckle in admiration, even if the pros are Bush adversaries? We all should fight the natural tendency to pull down the curtain on any election before the end of the last act. In the case of 2006, even fine-tuning has the potential to shift control of one or both houses of Congress over to Democrats or back to Republicans.

It's also nearly certain now that we are headed for two years of presidential-legislative gridlock. Slim majorities of Republicans, or the same for Democrats, or a mixed result (one house for each party) guarantee that only incremental changes will occur in most policy areas. Should Democrats gain both houses of Congress, President Bush can look forward to the death of one enduring criticism during his White House years: that he hasn't exercised his veto power enough.

What a fascinating final 25 days we are facing in this election, and what a rambunctious two years lay ahead. 2006 is turning into the "Full Employment Election" for political analysts--and for that, your Crystal Ball is grateful!

Here are our up-to-date "Crystal Ball HotRace Readings" for all Senate, House and Governor elections:

Follow the link for the charts. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006101201

 

[nt250]

It's also nearly certain now that we are headed for two years of presidential-legislative gridlock. Slim majorities of Republicans, or the same for Democrats, or a mixed result (one house for each party) guarantee that only incremental changes will occur in most policy areas.

OMIGOD! What a horrible notion!

We should only be so lucky.