Historically, no Antarctic ice shelf when CO2 is above 400 ppm

[Crick]

An examination of the temperature and CO2 record back to 45 million years indicates that CO2 levels above 400 ppm will not allow the continued existence of the Antarctic ice shelves. The loss of those shelves, even without a catastrophic collapse of the WAIS, will facilitate an enormous movement of land-based glacial ice into the seas raising global sea level by tens of feet.

Our Atmospheric CO2 is now past the point that in the Deep Past has Meant the Melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheets

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - So as a historian, I am particularly interested in what the past tells us about the present. I've taught courses on climate change in history. But of course my kind of history doesn't go back very far from the point of view of physical scientists. The academic...

www.juancole.com

 

[frigidweirdo]

An examination of the temperature and CO2 record back to 45 million years indicates that CO2 levels above 400 ppm will not allow the continued existence of the Antarctic ice shelves. The loss of those shelves, even without a catastrophic collapse of the WAIS, will facilitate an enormous movement of land-based glacial ice into the seas raising global sea level by tens of feet.

Our Atmospheric CO2 is now past the point that in the Deep Past has Meant the Melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheets

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - So as a historian, I am particularly interested in what the past tells us about the present. I've taught courses on climate change in history. But of course my kind of history doesn't go back very far from the point of view of physical scientists. The academic...

www.juancole.com

Problem here is you're equating CO2 levels to temperature levels. Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe CO2 rose in the past because temperatures rose. Then what?

 

[1srelluc]

So Martha's Vineyard will be under water any day now.....Right.

 

[petro]

The Earth isn't static and neither are ocean levels.

Perhaps we shouldn't build in flood prone areas or even more stupidly build below sea level.

Nothing is permanent from natural landscapes to made made structures.

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

An examination of the temperature and CO2 record back to 45 million years indicates that CO2 levels above 400 ppm will not allow the continued existence of the Antarctic ice shelves. The loss of those shelves, even without a catastrophic collapse of the WAIS, will facilitate an enormous movement of land-based glacial ice into the seas raising global sea level by tens of feet.

Our Atmospheric CO2 is now past the point that in the Deep Past has Meant the Melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheets

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - So as a historian, I am particularly interested in what the past tells us about the present. I've taught courses on climate change in history. But of course my kind of history doesn't go back very far from the point of view of physical scientists. The academic...

www.juancole.com

Wow 45 million year ago? Antarctica looked like this. I am still wondering if "Pangea" was one whole continent from the north to the south, what was on the other side, because of the land imbalance that should of occurred....Just saying..

 

[Crick]

Problem here is you're equating CO2 levels to temperature levels. Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe CO2 rose in the past because temperatures rose. Then what?

I'm not, that was the scientists. And I hate to rain on your parade but for the purpose of this discussion, it doesn't matter which is the cause and which the effect. They are still correlated.

 

[Crick]

So Martha's Vineyard will be under water any day now.....Right.

Unfortunately, it's very likely. So will the homes and work places of hundreds of millions of people around the world.

 

[Crick]

The Earth isn't static and neither are ocean levels.

Perhaps we shouldn't build in flood prone areas or even more stupidly build below sea level.

Nothing is permanent from natural landscapes to made made structures.

That the Earth isn't static is irrelevant. I could even argue that the dynamicism of the Earth is evidence that the environment it provides us can be affected in significant ways by seemingly insignificant changes in critical factors. Increasing CO2 raises the Earth's temperature. Raising the Earth's temperature reduces the amount of ice worldwide. That ice loss can have catastrophic impacts, just another aspect of that dynamic Earth you bring up. Thanks.

 

[frigidweirdo]

I'm not, that was the scientists. And I hate to rain on your parade but for the purpose of this discussion, it doesn't matter which is the cause and which the effect. They are still correlated.

It does matter, actually.
Because we have two situations.

1) Normal times
2) Now.
In normal times we see a rise in CO2 and a rise in temperatures, then a dropping off of temperatures and a dropping off of CO2.

So, if temperatures rise, and CO2 then rises, it means temperatures are not rising because of CO2 so much as other factors.

If CO2 rises and causes temperatures to rise, this means CO2 is much more of a problem.
Thing is, CO2 is going through the roof, and temperatures are not keeping up.

What will happen later? Who knows?

 

[frigidweirdo]

Unfortunately, it's very likely. So will the homes and work places of hundreds of millions of people around the world.

What happened 100,000 years ago when the last peak of temperatures happened? Is this natural or not?

 

[Crick]

It does matter, actually.
Because we have two situations.

1) Normal times
2) Now.
In normal times we see a rise in CO2 and a rise in temperatures, then a dropping off of temperatures and a dropping off of CO2.

So, if temperatures rise, and CO2 then rises, it means temperatures are not rising because of CO2 so much as other factors.

If CO2 rises and causes temperatures to rise, this means CO2 is much more of a problem.
Thing is, CO2 is going through the roof, and temperatures are not keeping up.

What will happen later? Who knows?

I don't think either you or me have the faintest fuck of an idea what you might mean by "normal times"

I don't know why your side of this argument has such a problem with this BUT:

Rising temperatures will cause CO2 to rise because increasing ocean temperatures reduce the amount of gas that can be dissolved there. CO2 comes out of solution and increases atmospheric levels.
Increasing levels of CO2 increase the amount of IR radiation trapped in the Earth's atmosphere and increase the planet's temperatures.

You folks seem to believe that both these things cannot be true. That is a mistake. They are both true and both are exceedingly well established by over a century of hard science.

Finally, temperatures ARE going up and the correlation with CO2 is just as robust as it has been through all of available history.

 

[Crick]

What happened 100,000 years ago when the last peak of temperatures happened? Is this natural or not?

It was more like 125,000 years ago but sea levels rose of course. Is what natural?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

An examination of the temperature and CO2 record back to 45 million years indicates that CO2 levels above 400 ppm will not allow the continued existence of the Antarctic ice shelves. The loss of those shelves, even without a catastrophic collapse of the WAIS, will facilitate an enormous movement of land-based glacial ice into the seas raising global sea level by tens of feet.

Our Atmospheric CO2 is now past the point that in the Deep Past has Meant the Melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheets

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - So as a historian, I am particularly interested in what the past tells us about the present. I've taught courses on climate change in history. But of course my kind of history doesn't go back very far from the point of view of physical scientists. The academic...

www.juancole.com

Temperature being completely irrelevant to Arctic ice, right Sparky?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Problem here is you're equating CO2 levels to temperature levels. Maybe it's the other way around. Maybe CO2 rose in the past because temperatures rose. Then what?

There's a 450,000 year long side by side temperature and CO2 data set showing EXACTLY that. Crick never acknowledges it

 

[CrusaderFrank]

So Martha's Vineyard will be under water any day now.....Right.

All those Illegals will be swept away!

 

[Crick]

There's a 450,000 year long side by side temperature and CO2 data set showing EXACTLY that. Crick never acknowledges it

Let me pass you two some REALLY basic algebra. Ready? If A=B, then B=A.

 

[Crick]

All those Illegals will be swept away!

They will make up a very tiny percentage of those affected. Is it worth it to you? And, since your ignorance never seems to know any bounds, the immigrants Desantis flew to Martha's Vineyard are registered asylum seekers fleeing a dictatorial communist regime and are as legal as legal can be. From my point of view, the objection that you and Ron Desantis had to those people was that they had brown skin.

 

[jc456]

Let me pass you two some REALLY basic algebra. Ready? If A=B, then B=A.

prove A=B

 

[jc456]

An examination of the temperature and CO2 record back to 45 million years indicates that CO2 levels above 400 ppm will not allow the continued existence of the Antarctic ice shelves. The loss of those shelves, even without a catastrophic collapse of the WAIS, will facilitate an enormous movement of land-based glacial ice into the seas raising global sea level by tens of feet.

Our Atmospheric CO2 is now past the point that in the Deep Past has Meant the Melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheets

Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - So as a historian, I am particularly interested in what the past tells us about the present. I've taught courses on climate change in history. But of course my kind of history doesn't go back very far from the point of view of physical scientists. The academic...

www.juancole.com

I'm just curious, are you suggesting that CO2 melts ice?

Can you say dry ice?

 

[abu afak]

Wow 45 million year ago? Antarctica looked like this. I am still wondering if "Pangea" was one whole continent from the north to the south, what was on the other side, because of the land imbalance that should of occurred....Just saying..


View attachment 702161

You Moron.
That's Pangaea 200 million Years ago.
and you used Crackpot Juan Cole.


Actually earth looked much like it does now 45 million years ago.
Except, ie, the East Coast was under water.

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