Hillary is STOMPING Christie, Jeb Bush and Walker in NJ

Statistikhengst

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This is actually very important news:

TIME FOR A WOMAN IN THE OVAL OFFICE NEW JERSEYANS AGREE COUNTRY IS READY Center for Public Interest Polling

Rutgers/Eagleton poll, released February 17, 2015
694 RV, MoE= +/-4.1

(parentheses = former Rutgers values, from 22.12.2014)

Clinton 58 (49) / Christie 35 (39), margin = Clinton +23 (+10)
margin shift from last Rutgers/Eagleton: Clinton +13

Clinton 58 (53) / Christie 32 (37), margin = Clinton +26 (+16)
margin shift from last Rutgers/Eagleton: Clinton +10

Clinton 60 / Walker 29 , margin = Clinton +31
No previous poll for comparison purposes; this is the first 2016 Clinton/Walker matchup for any pollster thus far in this state.

So, Hillary's margins range from +23 to +31. That is blowout-landslide territory. It is also confirmation that Chris Christie (R-NJ) is falling all over the place.

You might want to go to the Rutgers link to see for yourself how she is doing in the female vote in that state.... pretty astonishing stuff.

To date, there have now been 14 polls of the Garden State, since 20.02.2013, almost exactly two years ago. There have been 33 matchups, of which Hillary has won 32 and Christie won 1, in December of 2013, after his November landslide re-election.

Now, most people will assume that New Jersey is part of the so-called "blue wall", a relatively new name associated with the 17 states plus DC that have gone blue in all six of the last six presidential cycles and are currently worth 242 EV. I mentioned that wall here, but simply called it "Electoral Columns":


What IS news are the margins that we are seeing in this poll.

Here's a look at the last SEVEN presidential elections in New Jersey:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=34&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state

1988:
Bush 41 +13.64%
1992: Clinton, Bill +2.67%
1996: Clinton, Bill +17.86%
2000: Gore +15.86%
2004: Kerry +6.68%
2008: Obama +15.53%
2012: Obama +17.74%

New Jersey is one of only six states in the Union where Pres. Obama's electoral statistic improved in 2012 over 2008. The other five states are: New York, Maryland, Alaska (yes, Alaska), Mississippi and Louisiana.

What can we say with 100% surety from these electoral statistics?

We can say that the New Jersey electorate, between 1988, an election where George H. W. Bush (41) won nationally by
+7.73%, and 2012, where President Barack Obama won nationally by +3.86%, the Garden State's electorate has shifted +31.38% toward TEAM BLUE. We can also see that in 6 of those 7 cycles, the state awarded the winner a win with a margin better than that candidate's national statistic, the exception being the three-man race in 1992.

We also see that in the only cycle where the Republican won nationally in both the NPV and the EC but still lost New Jersey, he only lost it by single digits: 2004, Bush vs. Kerry.

We see that in 1992, New Jersey was a true battleground state. It went down to the wire between Bill Clinton and Bush 41, and at the end of the day, Ross Perot took
15.61% of the vote. This is not the first time that New Jersey had been a decisive battleground state: in 1976, it was a similar situation, but then Pres. Gerald R. Ford barely retained the state for TEAM RED, by +2.16%, and in 1968, Nixon barely picked up the state for the GOP, by +2.13%. In 1960, this state also went down to the wire: Kennedy carried it by only +0.80%. It's a state that FDR won by just +3.6% or less for three of his four elections and the ONLY time in our history where this state has gone for a Democrat by more than +20 was in 1964, with LBJ (+31.75%).

Now, look at Hillary's margins again: between
+23 and +31. Remember this electoral history.

In other words, in the NE, the two lowest pieces of hanging fruit that represent even a chance for the GOP to make inroads into that part of the country are: New Hampshire and New Jersey. Geographers are unsure whether Pennyslvania is part of the NE, part of the Acela states, or purely a rust belt state and therefore actually more part of the Mid-West. So, I'm leaving Pennsylvania out of this for now.

What we are seeing is the principal of "a rising tide lifts all boats".

So, it is pretty much expected that Hillary will carry New Jersey, but if these numbers hold, that can only indicate a very large national margin for her as well.

And Jeb Bush, brother of George W. Bush, Jr. and son of George W. Bush, Sr, is losing here by 26 points.

How accurate is Rutgers/Eagleton?

Well:

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.

The final Rutgers/Eagleton poll from 2012 (which was
not in my final average, but in the final polling comparisons to actual results), predicted Obama +17. Obama won by +17.74, so actually, the poll was off to the RIGHT by a little less than 1 point, which is pretty damned good.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Facit: these kind of margins are in line with what we are seeing all over the country.

Even in Iowa, a REPUBLICAN pollster, Gravis, is showing Hillary pulling away from the GOP field.

Now, this is just one poll, many more are sure to follow, and this all can change, but the numbers look exceedingly good for Hillary. She is polling here far better than Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry or Barack Obama ever did.


Oh, and some factoids: George W. Bush, Jr, and Abraham Lincoln are the only Republicans in our history to have lost New Jersey twice.

Three other Republican Presidents won NJ the first time but lost it the second time:

Taft, won in 1908, lost in 1912
Hoover, won in 1928, lost in 1932
Bush 41, won in 1988, lost in 1992.


BTW, all three of those Republicans LOST their re-elections.

Only one Republican has ever picked up NJ in his re-election campaign after having lost it the first time around:

Grant, lost in 1868, won in 1872.

Anyone see a date-pattern, there? :D







 
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JoeB131

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again, at this point, it's name recognition, not so much popularity.

Hillary is going to have to get out in front of voters again at some point, and then we are going to have to ask ourselves, "Do we want to listen to that screeching voice for the next four to eight years?"

 

TyroneSlothrop

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Hillary is overly corporate having said that I say ABAR...anyone but a Republican.....
Here's the thing. If you have the GOP nominating Scott Walker, you'd probably have a Republican with more blue collar street Cred than the Democrat.
He is a Koch bro prostitute....
 

JoeB131

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Hillary is overly corporate having said that I say ABAR...anyone but a Republican.....
Here's the thing. If you have the GOP nominating Scott Walker, you'd probably have a Republican with more blue collar street Cred than the Democrat.
He is a Koch bro prostitute....
Maybe.

He's also a guy who has a pretty good record of getting things done.

This election is going to be decided by the 10% in the middle who don't vote for party, but vote for who they think can get things done.
 

rightwinger

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North Jersey is where the Democrats live and North Jersey always carries the state in Senate and Presidential races

Governors can go either way
 

NLT

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Hilliary is toast when all the details of pedo bill come out about his orgy island affairs with underage women.
 

TyroneSlothrop

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/07/opinion/gov-scott-walkers-drafting-error.html?_r=1
Gov. Walker’s ‘Drafting Error’

It was not enough for Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin suddenly to propose a destructive 13 percent cut in state support for the University of Wisconsin’s widely respected system. His biennial budget plan, released Tuesday, reached gratuitously into the university’s hallowed 111-year-old mission statement to delete a bedrock principle: “Basic to every purpose of the system is the search for truth.”

The budget — patently tailored for the governor’s conservative campaign for the Republican presidential nomination — inserted language that the university should be more narrowly concerned with meeting “the state’s work force needs.”

Brazenly deleted as well from the mission statement, which is nationally appreciated in education circles as the Wisconsin Idea, were the far from controversial goals “to educate people and improve the human condition” and “serve and stimulate society.” It was as if a trade school agenda were substituted for the idea of a university.
 

MisterBeale

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Hilliary is toast when all the details of pedo bill come out about his orgy island affairs with underage women.
When it comes to the Presidential Race? The American People are toast. No matter WHO the elites run for the office, we have no real choice. All candidates will be PRO WWIII, PRO TPP and TTIP, and for collapsing the dollar and for ushering in a global currency. They'll definitely be for Agenda 21, "sustainable growth" and global warming protocols.

Chances are, just like immediately before the last changing of the guard, we will have another economic crises, either a bond bubble, or student loan bubble, and the dollar will collapse. This will cause bank BAIL INS. Emptying out of peoples savings, mutual funds, etc.

It won't matter who wins in the end. Because either way, the person occupying that office will do what they are told by the folks on Wall Street, the military industrial complex, and the western banking cabal elites.
 
OP
Statistikhengst

Statistikhengst

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North Jersey is where the Democrats live and North Jersey always carries the state in Senate and Presidential races

Governors can go either way
Always as of 1992, not before. And as I wrote in the OP, it's the eye popping margins that make the Rutgers stand out.

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martybegan

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Three things.

1. Its February 2015 for fucks sake.
2. The thundering herd of potential Republican Candidates dilutes all of their numbers.
3. Its Feburary 2015 for fucks sake.
 

JoeB131

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Brazenly deleted as well from the mission statement, which is nationally appreciated in education circles as the Wisconsin Idea, were the far from controversial goals “to educate people and improve the human condition” and “serve and stimulate society.” It was as if a trade school agenda were substituted for the idea of a university.
Again, not seeing that as a bad thing. This insanity that we tell kids to chuck over $40,000 for a degree in Art History and then tell them to go out into the job market and do you want fries with that....

Restructuring the university to benefit Wisconsin's economy. What a concept!
 
OP
Statistikhengst

Statistikhengst

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Three things.

1. Its February 2015 for fucks sake.
2. The thundering herd of potential Republican Candidates dilutes all of their numbers.
3. Its Feburary 2015 for fucks sake.
You are right. It's February 2015 and for two years solid now, Hillary has been leading all the way. It's called a data-baseline, which will be useful for both her supporters and her detractors. Think about it.

For three solid years, all of 2010, 2011 and 2012, Obama was consistently ahead in Ohio by +3 to +4 in aggregate. On election night, he won Ohio by +3. The data-baseline was correct.

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martybegan

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Three things.

1. Its February 2015 for fucks sake.
2. The thundering herd of potential Republican Candidates dilutes all of their numbers.
3. Its Feburary 2015 for fucks sake.
You are right. It's February 2015 and for two years solid now, Hillary has been leading all the way. It's called a data-baseline, which will be useful for both her supporters and her detractors. Think about it.

For three solid years, all of 2010, 2011 and 2012, Obama was consistently ahead in Ohio by +3 to +4 in aggregate. On election night, he won Ohio by +3. The data-baseline was correct.

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In Ohio.
 

martybegan

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Brazenly deleted as well from the mission statement, which is nationally appreciated in education circles as the Wisconsin Idea, were the far from controversial goals “to educate people and improve the human condition” and “serve and stimulate society.” It was as if a trade school agenda were substituted for the idea of a university.
Again, not seeing that as a bad thing. This insanity that we tell kids to chuck over $40,000 for a degree in Art History and then tell them to go out into the job market and do you want fries with that....

Restructuring the university to benefit Wisconsin's economy. What a concept!
We need Art History majors. The problem is we don't need that many, certainly not as many that are graduating.
 

Esmeralda

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Hillary is overly corporate having said that I say ABAR...anyone but a Republican.....
Here's the thing. If you have the GOP nominating Scott Walker, you'd probably have a Republican with more blue collar street Cred than the Democrat.
A man who does not believe in evolution and who kowtows to the right wing extremists? I don't care how blue collar he is, he is not likely to be president with those qualities.
 

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