- Nov 21, 2013
- Reaction score
- deep within the statistical brain!!
This is actually very important news:
TIME FOR A WOMAN IN THE OVAL OFFICE NEW JERSEYANS AGREE COUNTRY IS READY Center for Public Interest Polling
Rutgers/Eagleton poll, released February 17, 2015
694 RV, MoE= +/-4.1
(parentheses = former Rutgers values, from 22.12.2014)
Clinton 58 (49) / Christie 35 (39), margin = Clinton +23 (+10)
margin shift from last Rutgers/Eagleton: Clinton +13
Clinton 58 (53) / Christie 32 (37), margin = Clinton +26 (+16)
margin shift from last Rutgers/Eagleton: Clinton +10
Clinton 60 / Walker 29 , margin = Clinton +31
No previous poll for comparison purposes; this is the first 2016 Clinton/Walker matchup for any pollster thus far in this state.
So, Hillary's margins range from +23 to +31. That is blowout-landslide territory. It is also confirmation that Chris Christie (R-NJ) is falling all over the place.
You might want to go to the Rutgers link to see for yourself how she is doing in the female vote in that state.... pretty astonishing stuff.
To date, there have now been 14 polls of the Garden State, since 20.02.2013, almost exactly two years ago. There have been 33 matchups, of which Hillary has won 32 and Christie won 1, in December of 2013, after his November landslide re-election.
Now, most people will assume that New Jersey is part of the so-called "blue wall", a relatively new name associated with the 17 states plus DC that have gone blue in all six of the last six presidential cycles and are currently worth 242 EV. I mentioned that wall here, but simply called it "Electoral Columns":
What IS news are the margins that we are seeing in this poll.
Here's a look at the last SEVEN presidential elections in New Jersey:
1988: Bush 41 +13.64%
1992: Clinton, Bill +2.67%
1996: Clinton, Bill +17.86%
2000: Gore +15.86%
2004: Kerry +6.68%
2008: Obama +15.53%
2012: Obama +17.74%
New Jersey is one of only six states in the Union where Pres. Obama's electoral statistic improved in 2012 over 2008. The other five states are: New York, Maryland, Alaska (yes, Alaska), Mississippi and Louisiana.
What can we say with 100% surety from these electoral statistics?
We can say that the New Jersey electorate, between 1988, an election where George H. W. Bush (41) won nationally by +7.73%, and 2012, where President Barack Obama won nationally by +3.86%, the Garden State's electorate has shifted +31.38% toward TEAM BLUE. We can also see that in 6 of those 7 cycles, the state awarded the winner a win with a margin better than that candidate's national statistic, the exception being the three-man race in 1992.
We also see that in the only cycle where the Republican won nationally in both the NPV and the EC but still lost New Jersey, he only lost it by single digits: 2004, Bush vs. Kerry.
We see that in 1992, New Jersey was a true battleground state. It went down to the wire between Bill Clinton and Bush 41, and at the end of the day, Ross Perot took 15.61% of the vote. This is not the first time that New Jersey had been a decisive battleground state: in 1976, it was a similar situation, but then Pres. Gerald R. Ford barely retained the state for TEAM RED, by +2.16%, and in 1968, Nixon barely picked up the state for the GOP, by +2.13%. In 1960, this state also went down to the wire: Kennedy carried it by only +0.80%. It's a state that FDR won by just +3.6% or less for three of his four elections and the ONLY time in our history where this state has gone for a Democrat by more than +20 was in 1964, with LBJ (+31.75%).
Now, look at Hillary's margins again: between +23 and +31. Remember this electoral history.
In other words, in the NE, the two lowest pieces of hanging fruit that represent even a chance for the GOP to make inroads into that part of the country are: New Hampshire and New Jersey. Geographers are unsure whether Pennyslvania is part of the NE, part of the Acela states, or purely a rust belt state and therefore actually more part of the Mid-West. So, I'm leaving Pennsylvania out of this for now.
What we are seeing is the principal of "a rising tide lifts all boats".
So, it is pretty much expected that Hillary will carry New Jersey, but if these numbers hold, that can only indicate a very large national margin for her as well.
And Jeb Bush, brother of George W. Bush, Jr. and son of George W. Bush, Sr, is losing here by 26 points.
How accurate is Rutgers/Eagleton?
Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.
The final Rutgers/Eagleton poll from 2012 (which was not in my final average, but in the final polling comparisons to actual results), predicted Obama +17. Obama won by +17.74, so actually, the poll was off to the RIGHT by a little less than 1 point, which is pretty damned good.
Facit: these kind of margins are in line with what we are seeing all over the country.
Even in Iowa, a REPUBLICAN pollster, Gravis, is showing Hillary pulling away from the GOP field.
Now, this is just one poll, many more are sure to follow, and this all can change, but the numbers look exceedingly good for Hillary. She is polling here far better than Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry or Barack Obama ever did.
Oh, and some factoids: George W. Bush, Jr, and Abraham Lincoln are the only Republicans in our history to have lost New Jersey twice.
Three other Republican Presidents won NJ the first time but lost it the second time:
Taft, won in 1908, lost in 1912
Hoover, won in 1928, lost in 1932
Bush 41, won in 1988, lost in 1992.
BTW, all three of those Republicans LOST their re-elections.
Only one Republican has ever picked up NJ in his re-election campaign after having lost it the first time around:
Grant, lost in 1868, won in 1872.
Anyone see a date-pattern, there?