Doc7505
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Universal theories can have a certain tidy attraction. In science, they can result in revolutionary breakthroughs — Albert Einstein’s Theory of Relativity comes to mind. In the messy realm of human affairs, however, universal theories have a tendency to fall apart.
Ruy Teixeira, of the leftist Center for American Progress, provides a textbook example of a brilliant man developing a theory for determining the course of politics in America. In the 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, Teixeira and coauthor John Judis asserted their theory that minority voters who prefer Democrats grow as a share of the electorate by 2 percentage points every four years. This demographic shift would inevitably lead to Democrats’ long-term political dominance.
thefederalist.com
23 Jul 2020 ~~ By Chuck DeVore
Practically speaking, this would result in the entire nation becoming like today’s California — a one-party bastion of modern leftism.
Now, Teixeira is out with an important essay titled “Demography Is Not Destiny,” which shows all is not on track with his prognostications.In a phrase evocative of a nomenklatura in charge of doctrine, Teixeira warns that the vanguard of the proletariat has indulged in a “dangerous misunderstanding” of his theories. The diverging problem, argues Teixeira, stems from Barack Obama’s 2012 victory and reelection, combined with the “bowdlerization” of his work at the hands of James Carville in his book 40 More Years — How Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation.
The cadre’s fatal error was becoming so convinced of their eternal triumph that they forgot that winning national elections still requires a sizable portion of the white working class — at least for the near future. This misled victorious leftists to assume that all they needed to do was to mobilize “black, Hispanic, (and) Asian” voters along with “unmarried” or “highly educated” women while taking advantage of a set of “interrelated social, economic and demographic changes, including the growth of minority communities and cultural shifts among college graduates.”
This unfounded optimism, Teixeira mourns, resulted in a “decade-long electoral disaster” as working-class whites grew hostile to the ideologies of “intersectionality” and critical race theory that slowly spread out from campuses.
~~Snip~~
Lastly, Teixeira’s vision of an emerging majority “coming together in dynamic metropolitan areas rooted in the emerging post-industrial economy” is crashing against the unyielding reality that leftist politics — really, any utopian organizing principle — cannot work in the real world, at least, not for long.
The woke legions of Antifa looting and burning down the urban cores while calling for “defunding the police” may have an unintended electoral effect on Teixeira’s unmarried and college-educated women. Fear does that to people. So long as the new left’s “permissive social values” include the destruction of property and looting, the acrid smell of the burning local Apple store may cause a shift in political priorities for urban residents who, just a year ago, took freedom from fear for granted.
Comment:
The US has a middle class. People don’t like to give up their stuff for some marxists and their ideology.
The young and uneducated are manipulated by trained Marxist along with crowds of angry white Democrats (after a 99 year hiatus no less) started burning down black communities.
The thesis that the growing population of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians will ensure Democrat victory in the future is bunk:
Ruy Teixeira, of the leftist Center for American Progress, provides a textbook example of a brilliant man developing a theory for determining the course of politics in America. In the 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, Teixeira and coauthor John Judis asserted their theory that minority voters who prefer Democrats grow as a share of the electorate by 2 percentage points every four years. This demographic shift would inevitably lead to Democrats’ long-term political dominance.
Here’s Why ‘Demography Is Destiny’ Fell Apart For Democrats After Obama.
Democratic pundits still don't seem to grasp that demographics both shape and are shaped by politics. It’s not a one-way relationship, it’s symbiotic.
Democratic pundits still don't seem to grasp that demographics both shape and are shaped by politics. It’s not a one-way relationship, it’s symbiotic.
Why 'Demography Is Destiny' Fell Apart For Democrats After Obama
Democratic pundits still don't seem to grasp that demographics both shape and are shaped by politics. It’s not a one-way relationship, it’s symbiotic.
thefederalist.com
Practically speaking, this would result in the entire nation becoming like today’s California — a one-party bastion of modern leftism.
Now, Teixeira is out with an important essay titled “Demography Is Not Destiny,” which shows all is not on track with his prognostications.In a phrase evocative of a nomenklatura in charge of doctrine, Teixeira warns that the vanguard of the proletariat has indulged in a “dangerous misunderstanding” of his theories. The diverging problem, argues Teixeira, stems from Barack Obama’s 2012 victory and reelection, combined with the “bowdlerization” of his work at the hands of James Carville in his book 40 More Years — How Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation.
The cadre’s fatal error was becoming so convinced of their eternal triumph that they forgot that winning national elections still requires a sizable portion of the white working class — at least for the near future. This misled victorious leftists to assume that all they needed to do was to mobilize “black, Hispanic, (and) Asian” voters along with “unmarried” or “highly educated” women while taking advantage of a set of “interrelated social, economic and demographic changes, including the growth of minority communities and cultural shifts among college graduates.”
This unfounded optimism, Teixeira mourns, resulted in a “decade-long electoral disaster” as working-class whites grew hostile to the ideologies of “intersectionality” and critical race theory that slowly spread out from campuses.
~~Snip~~
Lastly, Teixeira’s vision of an emerging majority “coming together in dynamic metropolitan areas rooted in the emerging post-industrial economy” is crashing against the unyielding reality that leftist politics — really, any utopian organizing principle — cannot work in the real world, at least, not for long.
The woke legions of Antifa looting and burning down the urban cores while calling for “defunding the police” may have an unintended electoral effect on Teixeira’s unmarried and college-educated women. Fear does that to people. So long as the new left’s “permissive social values” include the destruction of property and looting, the acrid smell of the burning local Apple store may cause a shift in political priorities for urban residents who, just a year ago, took freedom from fear for granted.
Comment:
The US has a middle class. People don’t like to give up their stuff for some marxists and their ideology.
The young and uneducated are manipulated by trained Marxist along with crowds of angry white Democrats (after a 99 year hiatus no less) started burning down black communities.
The thesis that the growing population of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians will ensure Democrat victory in the future is bunk:
(1) . The black population is not growing at all. The "browning of America" just refers to the population growth of (mostly white) Hispanics and Asians.
(2) In fact, if you define black as the descendants of American slaves, the black portion of the population is actually shrinking. Currently, about 1 in 7 American "blacks" are foreign-born, and that portion is growing. African immigrants do not view themselves the same way as American blacks and are not nearly as beholden to the Democrat Party as American-born blacks. In fact, I know a number who are Reagan conservatives.
(3) The "Hispanic" population is growing, but they intermarry more than any other group and, after a generation or two, many tend to view themselves simply as white (see articles on "whiteshift"). It's the same thing that happened with European Catholic immigrants generations ago. Moreover, between 30% and 50% of them vote Republican to begin with. Many of the most prominent Hispanic politicians are Republicans.
(4) The "Asian" population is growing, but it is ethnically very heterogeneous, and their politics are not uniform. Many more Vietnamese, Filipino, and Chinese voters went for Trump than the average Asian. Like Hispanics, between 30% and 50% of Asians often vote Republican. Asian-Americans are well-educated and tend to assimilate quickly, and assimilated groups tend to vote like "whites." Asians also suffer open racial discrimination from leftist elites (particularly in college admission) and from blacks.
(5) There is a pretty good chance the Republican presidential nominee in 2024 will either be Asian (Haley) or Hispanic (Cruz).
