Great Depression Coming - Massive Deflation of US Dollar.

As I've said before, "Inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon". The converse is also true. Milton Friedman.

Inflation and Deflation have nothing to do with prices although at dramatic times in history prices have followed.

But you can deflate the money supply and have rising prices - like in Japan and Russia.

You can inflate the money supply and also have falling prices - like the US experienced from 2008 to 2019 with oil prices etc.

The US has massively inflated its money supply since 2008 - while many countries like China, Japan and Russia have not.

Money supply is a function of velocity, gold valuation, and oil price.

A way to illustrate this is the Federal Reserve Capital vs. Assets.

FED Reserve Capital are predominantly Gold and bank reserves the FED requires of banks.

Assets are the printed money (generalized as M2) that is circulating.

I went with Capital vs. Assets because for banks "assets vs. liabilities" is confusing - for someone like you probably very confusing.

A bank's assets are debt, while its liabilities is capital (the thing that capitalizes a bank such as deposits).

So for the FED that is deposits (reserve requirements) and gold.

Which is why the FED has two primary deflators. Gold price and bank reserve requirements. For instance in 1937, battling what it perceived to be inflation because of rising prices - the FED raised bank reserve requirements in November 1936 and destroyed the economy leading to the 1937 crash and recession.


This was seen as a gross error of the FED in hindsight.

But, at the time, rising prices and rising loans lent meant the FED thought we were experiencing inflation. Truth is there was not enough currency in the system, we were still experiencing deflation, and so when the FED activated one of its deflators (reserve requirements) raising capital for the FED, it crushed the economy.

Another deflator is interest rates.

Hence it's pretty obvious when a country has positive real interest rates it's deflationary.

Hence Russia is very obviously experiencing deflation.

So is China but for different reasons.

There's a reason this is important. Trade Surplus countries are supposed to inflate. Trade Deficit countries are supposed to deflate.

The US is inflating and Russia and China are deflating, so are Japan and Germany (both export surpluses also).

This is destroying liquidity, and we've been stuck in this crisis pattern since 2008. Now the crisis is reaching a boil.

Hence I told you - read about how France and the US accidentally blew up the global economy in 1930.

Good Lord, you reinforce the argument that the Internet is detrimental to human knowledge. Nothing what you say is intellectually consistent, and most isn't even remotely correct.
 
The price of oil isn't going up because of money printing. Or mostly not because of it. It's a little bit of the cause.

To set the record straight, there has been a LOT of money printing! $2.3 trillion of fiscal stimulus under Trump and $2.8 trillion under Biden. And massive, massive Fed stimulus (all of which happened under Trump).

I can make the argument that the fiscal stimulus under Trump was necessary and most, if not all, of the stimulus under Biden was not. And that excessive fiscal stimulus is definitely having an effect on consumer price inflation. But it is NOT the primary driver of commodity inflation.

Commodity price inflation is going up because of CAPITALISM! (God bless capitalism! The greatest socioeconomic structure that ever existed!)

Capitalists are DEMANDING that the companies they own NOT invest in excess production. For most of the past 20 years, commodities companies - particularly oil companies - spent WAY WAY WAY more exploring for oil than their cost of capital. This led to overproduction, which eventually led to a collapse of commodities prices.

This is how commodities markets work. High prices lead to high investment which leads to high production which leads to low prices which leads to low investment which leads to low production which leads to high prices, etc etc etc ...

I own a LOT of oil services stocks. They are extremely cheap, and will double or triple from here over the next 5-10 years. I also own copper stocks. I think they're going to go lower, but I will buy up in size when that happens.
 
Good Lord, you reinforce the argument that the Internet is detrimental to human knowledge. Nothing what you say is intellectually consistent, and most isn't even remotely correct.
Says the fool who can't even reply to a single point I made.
 
The price of oil isn't going up because of money printing. Or mostly not because of it. It's a little bit of the cause.

To set the record straight, there has been a LOT of money printing! $2.3 trillion of fiscal stimulus under Trump and $2.8 trillion under Biden. And massive, massive Fed stimulus (all of which happened under Trump).

I can make the argument that the fiscal stimulus under Trump was necessary and most, if not all, of the stimulus under Biden was not. And that excessive fiscal stimulus is definitely having an effect on consumer price inflation. But it is NOT the primary driver of commodity inflation.

Commodity price inflation is going up because of CAPITALISM! (God bless capitalism! The greatest socioeconomic structure that ever existed!)

Capitalists are DEMANDING that the companies they own NOT invest in excess production. For most of the past 20 years, commodities companies - particularly oil companies - spent WAY WAY WAY more exploring for oil than their cost of capital. This led to overproduction, which eventually led to a collapse of commodities prices.

This is how commodities markets work. High prices lead to high investment which leads to high production which leads to low prices which leads to low investment which leads to low production which leads to high prices ...

I own a LOT of oil services stocks. They are extremely cheap, and will double or triple from here over the next 5-10 years. I also own copper stocks. I think they're going to go lower, but I will buy up in size when that happens.

And massive, massive Fed stimulus (all of which happened under Trump).

And continued under Biden.
 
The price of oil isn't going up because of money printing. Or mostly not because of it. It's a little bit of the cause.

To set the record straight, there has been a LOT of money printing! $2.3 trillion of fiscal stimulus under Trump and $2.8 trillion under Biden. And massive, massive Fed stimulus (all of which happened under Trump).

I can make the argument that the fiscal stimulus under Trump was necessary and most, if not all, of the stimulus under Biden was not. And that excessive fiscal stimulus is definitely having an effect on consumer price inflation. But it is NOT the primary driver of commodity inflation.

Commodity price inflation is going up because of CAPITALISM! (God bless capitalism! The greatest socioeconomic structure that ever existed!)

Capitalists are DEMANDING that the companies they own NOT invest in excess production. For most of the past 20 years, commodities companies - particularly oil companies - spent WAY WAY WAY more exploring for oil than their cost of capital. This led to overproduction, which eventually led to a collapse of commodities prices.

This is how commodities markets work. High prices lead to high investment which leads to high production which leads to low prices which leads to low investment which leads to low production which leads to high prices, etc etc etc ...

I own a LOT of oil services stocks. They are extremely cheap, and will double or triple from here over the next 5-10 years. I also own copper stocks. I think they're going to go lower, but I will buy up in size when that happens.
I don't know where you think I said that oil is going up because of inflation of money supply. If you got that impression then you only understood half of what I said. Oil is a deflator to US monetary supply. More than any other commodity other than Gold
 
I don't know where you think I said that oil is going up because of inflation of money supply. If you got that impression then you only understood half of what I said. Oil is a deflator to US monetary supply. More than any other commodity other than Gold

No it is not. Oil (and gold) are very minor determinants of the money supply.

FYI I have owned more stocks and made more money this century long gold and gold stocks than literally anyone in the American Southeast. I work in investments. I <3 commodities. But they are commodities. Nothing more. They are not religion, nor a political ideology. Sometimes you want to be long commodities and sometimes you want to be short commodities.

Gold has not been relevant from a monetary perspective since 1971. And even then, it was pretty irrelevant for almost 40 years. Oil even less so.
 
At some point, if America ever loses its position as the pre-eminent capitalist, rule-of-law-abiding, militarily strong country in the world, the dollar MIGHT lose its status as the global reserve currency, causing a massive deflation of the dollar. But for it to lose that status, there must be a currency that can replace it.

Commodities won't replace it, for many reasons. The only currency that could replace it in the foreseeable future is the Chinese yuan. But China doesn't have a fully convertible currency, has capital controls, and people don't believe it abides by the rule of law. So it is a long long long way away from replacing the dollar.

The dollar will go up, and the dollar will go down. Right now, there is an absolute flood of capital into the US, causing the dollar to go up. That will continue over the near term as investors worry about a global slowing of growth.
 
Well, once it goes into a Depression, maybe all the illegals and their anchors will had back across the southern border..we can only hope.

No, they will stay and milk it to the last drop and do nothing but speed up our problems. They will have more kids and bring in more of their kind and we're going to have a tough time going back, if we even can.

What I'm worried about is hitting a depression within the next 2 years.

If we hit a depression under the current administration we're fucked. They can't even handle a country that's running well, imagine if they are running a country in a depression. They will make things much worse and longer lasting. American will be screwed 6 ways from Sunday if we enter a depression under Biden and his administration.
 
No, they will stay and milk it to the last drop and do nothing but speed up our problems. They will have more kids and bring in more of their kind and we're going to have a tough time going back, if we even can.

What I'm worried about is hitting a depression within the next 2 years.

If we hit a depression under the current administration we're fucked. They can't even handle a country that's running well, imagine if they are running a country in a depression. They will make things much worse and longer lasting. American will be screwed 6 ways from Sunday if we enter a depression under Biden and his administration.
Liberal Hunting.png
 
Oil just won't stay down. At this point - Biden's policies are not helping but they no longer are the principal driver of inflation either. This problem is much older than that - going back to Obama. It's the result of 12 years of "easy money" pumping the US full of too many dollars.

First the evidence of break out:

View attachment 649066

Next - here is the 60 year historical chart that basically shows the situation:

View attachment 649069

For the US to return to historical average oil prices we have to lose 50% of our money supply, oil has to 2x or economy has to slow-down 50% or some combination of these.

None of those scenarios are any good for the US.

IMPORTANT: the money supply peaked under Obama's last year. Trump was reducing the money supply until COVID.

Trump was legitimately stimulating the economy while Obama inflated it.

Biden/Democrats blew it up to the moon.
And it sure ain't going to get any better . Do you know why ?


Because Democrats hate America and Americans. Stolen elections have consequences.
 
Trump created the worst growth economy since 1929.


The dollar is up 7%, highest since March 2020


Trump was the worst President in the history of the country, and it isn't even close. A criminal, a coward, and a traitor in any way you can define it.



Shut up you dumb prick.
 
Oil just won't stay down. At this point - Biden's policies are not helping but they no longer are the principal driver of inflation either. This problem is much older than that - going back to Obama. It's the result of 12 years of "easy money" pumping the US full of too many dollars.

First the evidence of break out:

View attachment 649066

Next - here is the 60 year historical chart that basically shows the situation:

View attachment 649069

For the US to return to historical average oil prices we have to lose 50% of our money supply, oil has to 2x or economy has to slow-down 50% or some combination of these.

None of those scenarios are any good for the US.

IMPORTANT: the money supply peaked under Obama's last year. Trump was reducing the money supply until COVID.

Trump was legitimately stimulating the economy while Obama inflated it.

Biden/Democrats blew it up to the moon.
Just wait until double digit IR
You will have total collapse on mortgages and other loans
 
As I've said before, "Inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon". The converse is also true. Milton Friedman.

Inflation and Deflation have nothing to do with prices although at dramatic times in history prices have followed.

But you can deflate the money supply and have rising prices - like in Japan and Russia.

You can inflate the money supply and also have falling prices - like the US experienced from 2008 to 2019 with oil prices etc.

The US has massively inflated its money supply since 2008 - while many countries like China, Japan and Russia have not.

Money supply is a function of velocity, gold valuation, and oil price.

A way to illustrate this is the Federal Reserve Capital vs. Assets.

FED Reserve Capital are predominantly Gold and bank reserves the FED requires of banks.

Assets are the printed money (generalized as M2) that is circulating.

I went with Capital vs. Assets because for banks "assets vs. liabilities" is confusing - for someone like you probably very confusing.

A bank's assets are debt, while its liabilities is capital (the thing that capitalizes a bank such as deposits).

So for the FED that is deposits (reserve requirements) and gold.

Which is why the FED has two primary deflators. Gold price and bank reserve requirements. For instance in 1937, battling what it perceived to be inflation because of rising prices - the FED raised bank reserve requirements in November 1936 and destroyed the economy leading to the 1937 crash and recession.


This was seen as a gross error of the FED in hindsight.

But, at the time, rising prices and rising loans lent meant the FED thought we were experiencing inflation. Truth is there was not enough currency in the system, we were still experiencing deflation, and so when the FED activated one of its deflators (reserve requirements) raising capital for the FED, it crushed the economy.

Another deflator is interest rates.

Hence it's pretty obvious when a country has positive real interest rates it's deflationary.

Hence Russia is very obviously experiencing deflation.

So is China but for different reasons.

There's a reason this is important. Trade Surplus countries are supposed to inflate. Trade Deficit countries are supposed to deflate.

The US is inflating and Russia and China are deflating, so are Japan and Germany (both export surpluses also).

This is destroying liquidity, and we've been stuck in this crisis pattern since 2008. Now the crisis is reaching a boil.

Hence I told you - read about how France and the US accidentally blew up the global economy in 1930.

A bank's assets are debt, while its liabilities is capital (the thing that capitalizes a bank such as deposits).

Have you figured out yet that bank deposits don't capitalize banks?
 
Many of your morons here are Economic illiterate !!!!
Xiden has blown out treasury
Also a huge problem is the collapsing of the subprime loans

Just wait until IR go to DD
 

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