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GOP Challenger Pulls Ahead- Dems losing Weiner’s Seat?

Trajan

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wow, ( and heads up to Ringel for starting a thread on this a few week ago), since this has really moved from dem hold to toss up to rep gain, I thought it might need a new refresh..;)

considering; Weprin's pedigree in NY politics already, the District itself, NY, huge voter reg. advantage......this should not be close.

Weprin can still pull it out, but that Turner nationalized the race and has come within an ace of wining in a very deep blue venue.....:eusa_think



Sep 9, 2011 12:23pm
GOP Challenger Pulls Ahead in Race for Weiner’s Spot


There is grim news today for the White House and the Democratic Party in the special election to fill Anthony Weiner’s vacated congressional seat in New York.

Although Democrats hold a three to one registration advantage over Republicans in the district, Republican Bob Turner has opened a lead, grabbing 50 percent, compared with 44 percent for Democrat David Weprin, among likely voters, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll.

Weprin stood at 48 percent and Turner 42 percent in a Siena poll taken one month ago.

The election is next Tuesday.

A Turner victory would be an ominous sign for Democrats and President Obama’s re-election campaign, as the district, which spans Brooklyn and Queens, is filled with the kind of white, middle-class, usually reliable Democratic voters that the president needs in his corner to get re-elected.

But the poll found voters in the district are down on the president, and the direction of the country.

Forty-three percent have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion, according to the poll. Nineteen percent believe the U.S. is on the right track, ” while 74 percent say the country is on the wrong track. Both sets of numbers are largely unchanged from a month ago.

What has changed is the voters’ views of the candidates: Weprin’s unfavorable ratings shot up, to 41 percent, from 24 percent a month ago. And by a 43-32 percent margin, likely voters say Turner is running the more positive campaign

“It’s a perfect storm for Turner and the Republicans,” said Steven Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena Research Institute.

Sensing the seat could be slipping away, the national Democratic Party has begun pouring money into the race – including a $500,000 infusion this week from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Even if Weprin can pull out a victory, it is still an enormous expenditure in an election Democrats once believed was a lock.

Weprin has fallen behind, despite his longstanding political ties in the district. He’s a state assemblyman and the son of a former state assembly speaker.

Turner has never held elected office before, although he ran a surprisingly close race in 2010 against Weiner, who later gave up the seat in a scandal over lewd photos of himself he’d Twittered. Turner, 70, is a retired television executive whose claim to fame – or, perhaps, infamy – - is that he helped to create Jerry Springer’s bawdy television show in the 1990s.

more at
GOP Challenger Pulls Ahead in Race for Weiner’s Spot - ABC News
 

Claudette

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Big Surprise.

I though Weiners seat was a safe Dem seat.

WOW is right.
 

bitterlyclingin

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Still plenty of time for the Democrats Legendary Ballot Box Chicanery to kick in.
Why it was just last November when across the Sound from Long Island, with Connecticut Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Tom Foley ahead by some 8,000 votes, Democrats borrowed a Bridgeport city carpenter, pulling him away from his customary city duties, thirty six hours after the polls had closed, went down to one of the boarded up buildings on Main St, cut away the plywood covering the entry doors, went inside the building and retrieved a bag of 10,000 uncounted exclusively Democratic ballots. Immediately upon receiving word of this miraculous find, Democratic Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, a product of the George Soros sponsored Secretary of State Project, declared Democratic gubernatorial candidate Daniel Malloy the winner with no recount allowed.
The Democrats will do whatever it takes to win. Just ask Jimmy Hoffa. "You vote for whoever I tell you or we'll breaka you face"
 

oreo

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wow, ( and heads up to Ringel for starting a thread on this a few week ago), since this has really moved from dem hold to toss up to rep gain, I thought it might need a new refresh..;)

considering; Weprin's pedigree in NY politics already, the District itself, NY, huge voter reg. advantage......this should not be close.

Weprin can still pull it out, but that Turner nationalized the race and has come within an ace of wining in a very deep blue venue.....:eusa_think



Sep 9, 2011 12:23pm
GOP Challenger Pulls Ahead in Race for Weiner’s Spot


There is grim news today for the White House and the Democratic Party in the special election to fill Anthony Weiner’s vacated congressional seat in New York.

Although Democrats hold a three to one registration advantage over Republicans in the district, Republican Bob Turner has opened a lead, grabbing 50 percent, compared with 44 percent for Democrat David Weprin, among likely voters, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll.

Weprin stood at 48 percent and Turner 42 percent in a Siena poll taken one month ago.

The election is next Tuesday.

A Turner victory would be an ominous sign for Democrats and President Obama’s re-election campaign, as the district, which spans Brooklyn and Queens, is filled with the kind of white, middle-class, usually reliable Democratic voters that the president needs in his corner to get re-elected.

But the poll found voters in the district are down on the president, and the direction of the country.

Forty-three percent have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 54 percent have an unfavorable opinion, according to the poll. Nineteen percent believe the U.S. is on the right track, ” while 74 percent say the country is on the wrong track. Both sets of numbers are largely unchanged from a month ago.

What has changed is the voters’ views of the candidates: Weprin’s unfavorable ratings shot up, to 41 percent, from 24 percent a month ago. And by a 43-32 percent margin, likely voters say Turner is running the more positive campaign

“It’s a perfect storm for Turner and the Republicans,” said Steven Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena Research Institute.

Sensing the seat could be slipping away, the national Democratic Party has begun pouring money into the race – including a $500,000 infusion this week from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Even if Weprin can pull out a victory, it is still an enormous expenditure in an election Democrats once believed was a lock.

Weprin has fallen behind, despite his longstanding political ties in the district. He’s a state assemblyman and the son of a former state assembly speaker.

Turner has never held elected office before, although he ran a surprisingly close race in 2010 against Weiner, who later gave up the seat in a scandal over lewd photos of himself he’d Twittered. Turner, 70, is a retired television executive whose claim to fame – or, perhaps, infamy – - is that he helped to create Jerry Springer’s bawdy television show in the 1990s.

more at
GOP Challenger Pulls Ahead in Race for Weiner’s Spot - ABC News



Here is another related article from a few weeks ago:

Of all the places to hear fulminations against President Obama, one of the least expected is the corner of 71st Avenue and Queens Boulevard, in the heart of a Congressional district that propelled Democrats like Geraldine A. Ferraro, Charles E. Schumer and Anthony D. Weiner to Washington.

National Democrats, alarmed by a poll that showed the contest far closer than anticipated, are privately fretting that even a close outcome in a working-class swath of Brooklyn and Queens may foreshadow broader troubles for the party in 2012.

But it was there that Dale Weiss, a 64-year-old Democrat, approached the Republican running for Congress in a special election and, without provocation, blasted the president for failing to tame runaway federal spending. “We need to cut Medicaid,” she declared, “but he won’t do that.” She shook her head in disgust. “He is a moron.”

The Sep. 13 election was expected to be a sleepy sideshow — a mere formality that would put David I. Weprin, a Democratic state assemblyman and heir to a Queens political dynasty, into a Congressional seat that became vacant this summer when Mr. Weiner quit over an online sex scandal.

Instead, the race has become something far more unsettling to Democrats: a referendum on the president and his party that is highlighting the surprisingly raw emotions of the electorate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/22/n...hopes-for-upset.html?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss

Let's see the last time New York went for a Republican was Ronald Reagan--Hmmm
 

JoeB131

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Other than bragging rights, I'm not sure what the point of the RNCC is in investing so much into this race is.

After the NY Legislature gets done, this district is going to vanish. NY is set to lose 2 congressional seats due to the last census, and this is the one mostly likely slated for dissolution.

So the GOP will take it until it is abolished in 2012.
 

oreo

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Other than bragging rights, I'm not sure what the point of the RNCC is in investing so much into this race is.

After the NY Legislature gets done, this district is going to vanish. NY is set to lose 2 congressional seats due to the last census, and this is the one mostly likely slated for dissolution.

So the GOP will take it until it is abolished in 2012.

That's not the point. The point is this is one of the bluest districts in the country--New York City--that looks to be going for a Republican.
 

ladyliberal

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The Republicans seem to be doing very well. That being said, this is the New York 9th, not New York City and not New York State. As Nate Silver pointed out, this district gave only 55% to Obama, about 2% better than the nation. Based only on the decline in Obama's popularity since 2008, much less the depressing effect of Weiner's indiscretions, we would expect the Democrats to be running even worse than they are.

I'm not saying this is a Republican district of course, it's solidly more liberal than the country as a whole. That being said, it was clear from the beginning that a strong Republican candidate would have a serious shot at a win.

I also take exception to the original poster's characterization of Turner as nationalizing the race. Silver suggests that Turner's strategy depends in part on localizing the race with issues like the "Ground Zero Mosque". Turner has of course addressed national issues, but it's not clear to me (admittedly, I haven't been following the race closely) that he has run a more nationalized race than the average congressional race.
 

del

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The Republicans seem to be doing very well. That being said, this is the New York 9th, not New York City and not New York State. As Nate Silver pointed out, this district gave only 55% to Obama, about 2% better than the nation. Based only on the decline in Obama's popularity since 2008, much less the depressing effect of Weiner's indiscretions, we would expect the Democrats to be running even worse than they are.

I'm not saying this is a Republican district of course, it's solidly more liberal than the country as a whole. That being said, it was clear from the beginning that a strong Republican candidate would have a serious shot at a win.

I also take exception to the original poster's characterization of Turner as nationalizing the race. Silver suggests that Turner's strategy depends in part on localizing the race with issues like the "Ground Zero Mosque". Turner has of course addressed national issues, but it's not clear to me (admittedly, I haven't been following the race closely) that he has run a more nationalized race than the average congressional race.

sour-grapes.jpg


:rofl:
 

JoeB131

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Other than bragging rights, I'm not sure what the point of the RNCC is in investing so much into this race is.

After the NY Legislature gets done, this district is going to vanish. NY is set to lose 2 congressional seats due to the last census, and this is the one mostly likely slated for dissolution.

So the GOP will take it until it is abolished in 2012.

That's not the point. The point is this is one of the bluest districts in the country--New York City--that looks to be going for a Republican.

yes, until the seat vanishes in 2012.

This money could be spent in a place like NY-26, where a Democrat used scare tactics on Medicaid to get a Republican Seat, or in NY-23, where conservatives have been splitting the vote between the GOP and Conservative Parties and losing a reliably Republican Seat for the last two elections. Instead, the RNCC is going to blow a crapload of money on Weiner's seat when it's not going to be around after apportionment.

Remember, if the goal is going to be having as large of a GOP majority as possible to work with a new Republican President. One or two more seats right now won't make that much of a difference, because for the time being, you still have a Democratic Senate and the Community Organizer at the White House blocking any reforms.

Yeah, it would be emotionally satisfying to take Weiner's Seat, but as a practical matter, not so much. Especially since this Turner guy seems to be another RINO.
 

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