George Friedman on Egypt

[Trajan]

How much more Wall Street are you prepared to swallow, Bitch?

"Why has the Egyptian state lost its legitimacy?

"Max Weber distinguished between power and authority. Power flows from the barrel of a gun, and the Egyptian state still has plenty of those.

"But Weber defines authority as the likelihood that a command will be obeyed.

"Leaders who have authority do not have to shoot people. The Mubarak regime has had to shoot over 100 people in the past few days, and wound more.

"Literally hundreds of thousands of people have ignored Mubarak’s command that they observe night time curfews.

"He has lost his authority."

So have you.

Informed Comment

Cole....for god sakes....

Agree or Not?

"From 1970, Anwar El Sadat took Egyptian in a new direction, opening up the economy and openly siding with the new multi-millionaire contracting class. It in turn was eager for European and American investment.

"Tired of the fruitless Arab-Israeli wars, the Egyptian public was largely supportive of Sadat’s 1978 peace deal with Israel, which ended the cycle of wars with that country and opened the way for the building up of the Egyptian tourist industy and Western investment in it, as well as American and European aid.

"Egypt was moving to the Right.

"But whereas Abdel Nasser’s socialist policies had led to a doubling of the average real wage in Egypt 1960-1970, from 1970 to 2000 there was no real development in the country.

"Part of the problem was demographic. If the population grows 3 percent a year and the economy grows 3 percent a year, the per capita increase is zero.

"Since about 1850, Egypt and most other Middle Eastern countries have been having a (mysterious) population boom.

"The ever-increasing population also increasingly crowded into the cities, which typically offer high wages than rural work does, even in the marginal economy (e.g. selling matches). Nearly half the country now lives in cities, and even many villages have become ‘suburbs’ of vast metropolises."

Is there something you know about Egypt that Juan Cole doesn't?

Informed Comment

"But whereas Abdel Nasser’s socialist policies had led to a doubling of the average real wage in Egypt 1960-1970,

please george, Chavez attempted do and got partly there by performing the same socialist policies, and where is he now? Sadat was never the big western savior they make of him either.

 

[PixieStix]

The hard-line Islamists will take advantage of this upheaval. They're already doing this in Tunisia. People are making a very big mistake in believing this Egyptian upheaval is all about Freedom & Democracy. It may have started out that way but in the end the hard-line Islamists will rule.

Legitimizing Muslim Brotherhood was such a great idea too

Legitimizing a terrorist group for the sake of political points will get you nothing but what they are...and what they do..terrorist like activities..

 

[Trajan]

The hard-line Islamists will take advantage of this upheaval. They're already doing this in Tunisia. People are making a very big mistake in believing this Egyptian upheaval is all about Freedom & Democracy. It may have started out that way but in the end the hard-line Islamists will rule.

Legitimizing Muslim Brotherhood was such a great idea too

Legitimizing a terrorist group for the sake of political points will get you nothing but what they are...and what they do..terrorist like activities..

yea well thats make me think; were did the Iranians go wrong? if Mubarak falls ...why didn't the mullahs?

 

[ekrem]

yea well thats make me think; were did the Iranians go wrong? if Mubarak falls ...why didn't the mullahs?

Because the protesters in Iran were the minority.
If there were any reality in the argument, that Iran's system is not a majority system, USA already would have materialized this asset into regime change. USA had 30 years of time to achieve regime change.

Iranians are proud of their country, it is playing a greater role and has placed itself as the 'Defender of the Shiite world'.
You do not have to believe, and off course you can read your 'Iran sanctions are biting'-newspapers and dream of regime-change.

 

[Trajan]

so Egyptians..what ? value democracy more ?

 

[georgephillip]

"Sunday, January 30, 2011
Egyptian Protesters Stand Firm
By Jessica Elsayed
Senior Reporter
Youth Journalism International: Egyptian Protesters Stand FirmYouth Journalism International

"ALEXANDRIA, Egypt – As citizen protests against President Hosni Mubarak continued today, military planes and helicopters flew very close to the ground near protesters in Cairo and in Alexandria.

"This move was perplexing. We had been sure of the Egyptian Army, that it wouldn’t turn on the people, but things are a little more confusing now.

"The tactic of flying low seems to be to scare people, but the protesters are standing their ground."

 

[ekrem]

Stratfor assessing the situation

 

[georgephillip]

Tuesday February 1, 2011
Marching In Egypt: A Firsthand Account
by Jessica Elsayed

"ALEXANDRIA, Egypt – I have just come back from the million man march. I am overflowing with emotion.

"I cannot find the right words to describe how proud I am today, how proud I am to be an Egyptian and how proud I am to be an Alexandrian and how proud I am to be Muslim.

"I am proud to be part of a movement that could only be called historic.

"My mother and I ranted as we marched along with doctors and engineers and writers from all walks of life.

"We felt freedom, and we felt bravery.

"Walking next to a million of my brothers and sisters, we were, and still are, invincible."

 

[mudwhistle]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

Every time something like this comes up some idiot shows up on this site trying convince us this is a good thing.

No matter how bad it is they try to convince us it will be good for us in the long run.

A political vacuum is never a good thing, especially in an area that is in control of our energy supplies, thanks to Obama. The price of everything we buy, including food, or whatever is controlled by the price of oil. Encouraging unrest in the Middle East is insanity.

 

[editec]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

No, he's not.

Right now, thanks to decades of propaganda designed to make American hate each other, and policies designhed to strop this nation of its wealth, the population is seething with hate.

Its potenial for lashing out is fairly obvious.

We have read right on this very board, people opining how much they're looking forward to a civil war so they can start killing liberals.

Now imagine what happens if those people take that hatred and focus it instead on the people who actually brought us to this sorry state.

You throw into the mix the leftist disconent and the rightest discontent, you show these people that the MASTERS are fucking both of them, and we could see millions of American on the streets, too.

It's happened before, and it can happen again.

 

[editec]

It is very earth shaking.

I jsut think it will be for the better in the end.

I believe in democracy.

These people have seen their power in reality now.

They will not stand for any dictator now.

Any Islamic takeover will have to face the rath of these people who now know they CAN push a dictator out.

Ya know, TM...I'm losing faith in democracy as a system of governance.

I had a lot more faith in it before I started writing on boards like these.

But if the confused dislogic that I read here is any indication of the will of the people, then, I really almost cannot blame the masters for having contempt for the concept of democracy.

Bear in mind that there is no more democratic organization on earth than a lynch mob.

I have no faith in any political system.

I see flaws in every poltical system, and those flaws are inherent to that system and inevitably lead to their downfall.

I think we're approaching the end game to this system.

And what we seem to be going through is typically how shamocratic republics die.

I do not trust the mobs on the streets to be able to forge a fuctional, fair and just, productive nation.

I cannot think of any truly democratic nation that ever sprang from a civil war.

Can you?

 

[ekrem]

 

[WillowTree]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

Wow! That was Intense.

 

[High_Gravity]

Not sure if worth noting but Egypt's Unemployment Rate is the same as the U.S. Just something to ponder i guess.

Except their unemployed don't collect UE, welfare, cash aid or food stamps. No money comes in and they sleep on the fucking streets.

 

[P F Tinmore]

Egypt has had the same puppet for 30 years.

We get to select a new puppet every four years.

 

[Ropey]

Not sure if worth noting but Egypt's Unemployment Rate is the same as the U.S. Just something to ponder i guess.

Except their unemployed don't collect UE, welfare, cash aid or food stamps. No money comes in and they sleep on the fucking streets.

For the average working Egyptian it takes close to half their wages to simply feed themselves. The non working get nothing.

 

[georgephillip]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

No, he's not.

Right now, thanks to decades of propaganda designed to make American hate each other, and policies designhed to strop this nation of its wealth, the population is seething with hate.

Its potenial for lashing out is fairly obvious.

We have read right on this very board, people opining how much they're looking forward to a civil war so they can start killing liberals.

Now imagine what happens if those people take that hatred and focus it instead on the people who actually brought us to this sorry state.

You throw into the mix the leftist disconent and the rightest discontent, you show these people that the MASTERS are fucking both of them, and we could see millions of American on the streets, too.

It's happened before, and it can happen again.

There is no shortage of hatred or handguns in the US today. Confrontations like those taking place in Cairo could feature hundreds or thousands of civilian firearms on both sides if they ever occur in this country.

I've personally taken part in a pair of massive demonstrations (200,000-250,000) marchers and I remember experiencing a totally irrational feeling of invulnerability when I crested one of the rolling hills on Wilshire Blvd and looked back at a river of humanity stretching as far as the eye could see.

If every tenth or hundredth participant had brought his/her handgun to the parade? By some accounts there are more private guns than citizens in this country. Any uprising in the US like the one in Egypt today would be a net loss for all except the richest 1% of Americans who, undoubtedly, would be conspicuous by their absence.

Their propaganda is designed to make Americans hate "the other" while paying little or no attention to how cost is socialized and profit is privatized.