Geneva II peace Conference doomed to fail?

[Bleipriester]

Given that the opposition against the current Syrian gov´t has turned into an Islamist storm on Syria led by Al-Qaeda it is doubtful that the participating opposition representatives
do really have a say in what is happening in Syria.

If the Geneva II Conference is supposed to result into instant peace in Syria, it will fail. The mostly foreign Islamist fighters don´t care about the political tensions in Syria
but want to establish a Sharia based, Al Qaeda ruled system.
The goal of the conference should be, that opposition and government resolve their dispute. President Assad did the first step
with the new constitution of 2012 which was accepted by 89,42 % of the voters at a turnout of 57,41 %.

CNN Journalist Frederik Pleitgen in an interview with the German news channel ntv:
"I believe that the political positions don´t differ that much. The Syrians might solve it on their own. If they do not want the Islamists to become even stronger,
the current moderate opposition forces must join the government forces and fight against the Islamists."

Geneva II must bring about this rebound. This would not just strengthen the Syrian defense against the Islamists, it would further stymie the international power brokers
who fan the flames "in the name of freedom".

- Bleipriester

 

[aris2chat]

They already bumped the location in favor of a watch convention

 

[Bleipriester]

Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, a leader of al-Nusra and al-Qaeda told Al Jazeera in an interview that they will "not recognise any results that come out of the Geneva II conference" and dared to speak for the Syrian women and children, who they are abusing for sex and involving in the fights, and announced the early victory in Syria.
“The battle is almost over, we have covered about 70 percent of it, and what's left is small. We will achieve victory soon. We pray to God to culminate these efforts with victory. It's only a matter of days,” he said.

Meanwhile, Syria´s Deputy FM Faysal Mikdad said, that "We will not go to Geneva for sitting with the terrorists, and the USA should be precise in this regard… it vowed to Russia that it will make the opposition attend, yet it has failed so far." He said that those who send criminals to Syria are directly responsible for the crimes carried out in Syria.

BBC News - Al-Nusra Front leader rejects Syria peace talks
Syrian Arab news agency - SANA - Syria : Syria news ::

Bashar Akbar! Syrian Airforce delivering explosives to al-Nusra:


"Sorry Abu, I don´t understand, the Mig is too loud. Victory? Matter of days or something? Oh, I think he´s off the phone..."

​

 

[HenryBHough]

As thing stand now Brazil, India, quote possibly Germany, too will sit it out if Obama attends. Of course there not being much in the way of golf links around Geneva the risk doesn't seem overwhelming.

 

[aris2chat]

More than a half dozen courses in Geneva. I'm sure they would wave the license normally required.

As thing stand now Brazil, India, quote possibly Germany, too will sit it out if Obama attends. Of course there not being much in the way of golf links around Geneva the risk doesn't seem overwhelming.

 

[Bleipriester]

Non-Islamist opposition members in Syria ain´t satisfied with their exiled representation as the Syrian Arab Army has the upper hand. "Each of them represents himself and maybe his wife. Nobody here pays any attention to what they say."

Within minutes of opening a Twitter account this past week, the leader of Syria's main Western-backed opposition group received an onslaught of criticism.

"Welcome to Twitter Mr. Western Puppet," one comment to Ahmad al-Jarba read. Others called him a Saudi stooge and scorned the opposition's perceived ineffectiveness. The comments reflect the deep disillusionment and distrust that many Syrians have come to feel toward the Syrian National Coalition, Syria's main opposition group in exile. They also underline the predicament of who will represent the Syrian opposition at an upcoming peace conference in Geneva marking the first face-to-face meeting between Syria's warring sides.
The Geneva talks have raised the possibility of a negotiated end to a conflict activists say has killed more than 120,000 people. But with a fractured opposition, many have little hope for strong negotiations with emissaries of President Bashar Assad.
"Each of them represents himself and maybe his wife," said an anti-government activist in the central Homs province, who uses the pseudonym Abul Hoda. "Nobody here pays any attention to what they say."
The Syrian National Coalition is seen by many as a disparate group of out-of-touch exiles with inflated egos and non-Syrian allegiances. Syrians often deride it as the "five-star-hotel opposition" for spending more time meeting in luxury hotels than being on the ground in Syria.
Damascus-based opposition groups call members of the coalition traitors for demanding U.S. military airstrikes against Syria following a chemical weapons attack in August that killed hundreds. But groups known as the "internal opposition" are themselves seen as aging and submissive to Assad's government, incapable of playing an effective opposition role for fear of arrest.
More importantly, the rebel factions that hold the real power on the ground won't go to Geneva. Some of the most powerful Islamic brigades have distanced themselves from the coalition. Meanwhile, rebels are losing ground to a crushing government military offensive.
"Given the lack of unity amongst the opposition, the West and regional allies such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia will struggle to establish a representative negotiation partner that is willing to engage with the Syrian government," said Torbjorn Soltvedt, a senior analyst at the British risk analysis firm Maplecroft.
He added that negotiations likely will prove futile until there is a significant shift in the balance of power on the ground. "As such, the Syrian conflict is still likely to be decided on the battlefield," he said.
The Syrian foreign ministry said this week that it will send a high-level delegation to the talks with clear directives from Assad. Although it hasn't said who will be going, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem is expected to head the delegation.
It is much less clear who from the opposition side will be at the talks. Their deep splits will make it extremely difficult to select a unified opposition delegation. Western leaders have made clear they expect the coalition to be the chief negotiator on the opposition side at the conference, set for Jan. 22. The group has called on others to participate in a delegation under its command.
"The coalition will form the whole opposition delegation and it will lead this delegation. This is not up for discussion," senior coalition member Ahmad Ramadan said. "The coalition is the only side responsible for that."
The U.N.-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has said that the coalition will play a very important role in forming the delegation. "But I have always said that the delegation has to be credible and representative, as representative as possible," he said in Geneva last month.
Hassan Abdul-Azim, a veteran opposition figure in Syria who leads the Syria-based National Coordination Body for Democratic Change, said his group was ready to go to Geneva with a unified delegation made up of internal and external opposition group. But he said the coalition rejected the idea because it considers itself the only legitimate representative.
Many smaller opposition groups, including Kurdish parties, have not decided whether they will go and who will represent them. The coalition has said it will meet in Istanbul in mid-December to discuss the makeup of the delegation. But members of the group itself are split on the whole concept of a peace conference. Some of its senior members insist that Assad should step down and stand trial before any talks.
"In Europe, a train crash leads to government resignation. What about destroying half of Syria, displacing half its people and the killing and maiming of a million people?" asked opposition figure Kamal Labwani. "I am totally opposed to the Geneva conference."
Many believe the talks — if they go ahead — will be pointless, particularly now that Assad's forces have the upper hand in the fighting on the ground. The talks aim to establish a transitional government that would take over the country. But the opposition insists Assad must step aside, as the government says that's out of the question.
Gen. Salim Idris, the commander of the coalition's military wing known as the Free Syrian Army, said his faction will not take part in the talks and will not stop fighting until Assad is brought down by force. Meanwhile, frustration in the opposition remains clear, as it does in Twitter messages mocking Jarba's username "PresidentJarba."
"I find it disturbing you are calling yourself president already," one read. Another read: "100,000 Syrians martyrs and you ... still issue 'warnings.' No wonder ... Assad is still standing."


Syrian opposition splintered ahead of peace talks - World news

 

[Bleipriester]

The Geneva II participants should know that 70 % of the Syrians are for Assad, 20 % are neutral and only 10 % against Assad.

Nato data: Assad winning the war for Syrians’ hearts and minds

NATO has been studying data that told of a sharp rise in support for
Assad. The data, compiled by Western-sponsored activists and organizations,
showed that a majority of Syrians were alarmed by the Al Qaida takeover of
the Sunni revolt and preferred to return to Assad, Middle East Newsline reported.

"Assad is winning the war mostly because the people are cooperating with him against the rebels."

The data, relayed to NATO over the last month, asserted that 70 percent
of Syrians support the Assad regime. Another 20 percent were deemed neutral and the remaining 10 percent expressed support for the rebels.
NATO data: Assad winning the war for Syrians? hearts and minds | World Tribune