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I happen to agree, but there are some key Stats that Point to a Romney win.
The 2 main ones being the Recent Figures on Party Affiliation that show the Dems 7 Point advantage from 2008 Gone, if not reversed by a couple points.
And perhaps even more importantly poll after poll shows Romney up double digits among Independents.
Add to that the Historical Fact that if an Incumbent with a poor Economy is not over 50% in any Poll, and in a dead heat. They almost always lose. Late Deciders, and flippers tend to break heavily for the Challenger, Especially in a down Economy.
Not true at all. It doesn't matter that the president isn't elected by popular vote. National polling still shows a trend and if Gallup is accurate then the president is in a lot of trouble because that trend will show up in the bellwether states.