French Opposition to EU Constitution Climbs Above 60 Percent

[onedomino]

French Opposition to EU Treaty at New High
Fri Apr 22, 2005 9:25 AM BST

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2005-04-22T082540Z_01_SIN230305_RTRUKOC_0_EU-CONSTITUTION-OPINION.xml

PARIS (Reuters) - French opposition to the European Union constitution has risen above 60 percent for the first time in the campaign for a referendum on the treaty next month, according to an opinion poll published on Friday.

The MarketTools survey for Metro newspaper showed 62.3 percent of respondents who have decided how to vote oppose the treaty. The poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted on the Internet on Wednesday.

The previous MarketTools poll on March 15 had put opposition to the charter at 57.8 percent. Its surveys have generally put support for the "No" camp higher than other polls carried out in France.

MarketTools did not say how many voters had still not decided how to vote in the referendum on May 29.

Most recent polls have put opposition to the charter in a range around 53-56 percent of people who have decided how to vote. But one poll published on Thursday put the "No" camp on 58 percent and another put it on 52 percent.

About one third of voters are undecided, most polls suggest.

The charter is intended to make decision-making easier in the EU following its enlargement to 25 member states last May. It requires the approval of all member states to go into force.

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[theim]

looks like the baby "United States of Europe", with the potential to challenge the USA, just got aborted.

 

[onedomino]

This only delays the advent of the EU Constitution. The French Government, which strongly favors the EU Constitutional Treaty, will continue to hold referenda until one finally passes. In Germany, the population does not even get to vote on the EU Constitution. As board member “nosarcasm” pointed out, the German system of EU Constitution approval only involves agreement of the German Parliament. This would be equivalent to the US Congress passing American sovereignty to some larger Western Hemisphere superstate, without a direct electoral decision by the American people. I am not sure whether the German parliamentary approval vote is scheduled before or after the inevitable SPD and PM Schroeder electoral ouster from power.

 

[nosarcasm]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3954327.stm

the interactive map shows you the different approaches
and sentiments about the EU constitution.

the BBC date was the begin of the ratification process in Germany.


overview by the no faction.
http://europeannocampaign.com/12.99.html



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aOQPvjs6PcKQ

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Germany's parliament started the process of ratifying the new European Union constitution, which will give the 25-nation bloc a permanent president and foreign- policy chief for the first time.

The upper house today began the process of approving the treaty with a first debate on the ratification bill. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Cabinet approved the bill on Nov. 3, with the aim of concluding the ratification process by July this year.

``The constitution is a historic step in the European integration process, a logical step after the expansion of the EU'' to 25 members last year, Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer told the upper house. ``The government is aiming for swift ratification to give a signal to all of Europe.''

Germany's constitution doesn't allow for a referendum on the EU constitution. Ten EU countries are planning one, with Spain being the first to vote in two days' time. A rejection of the constitution, signed on Oct. 29 last year in Rome by EU leaders, by any one country would kill the treaty.

The constitution will create an EU diplomatic service, improve crime-fighting and judicial cooperation, incorporate a charter of basic rights, simplify voting on EU laws and shrink the European Commission, the union's Brussels-based executive and regulatory arm.

Apart from Spain, the countries that will stage referendums are France, the U.K., the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal and Poland. In the other member states, parliament alone will ratify the treaty. Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have already approved it.

Both the upper and lower house of Germany's parliament have to approve the constitution by a two-thirds majority in the final readings of the bill, as the treaty transfers national responsibilities to the EU, including cooperation on police and criminal-justice issues.

``What matters now is to implement courageously what has been agreed on'' as early as possible, the prime minister of Baden- Wuerttemberg state, Erwin Teufel, told the upper house. The lower house will hold its first reading of the ratification bill in six days' time.

 

[onedomino]

That was very good info, nosarcasm.

 

[onedomino]

The AP and extreme leftist Al-Guardian bemoan possible French rejection of the EU Constitutional Treaty:

France Constitution Rejection Worries EU
Friday April 22, 2005 10:01 PM
By ROBERT WIELAARD

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4957003,00.html

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) - Europe's executive body acknowledged for the first time Friday a growing fear that France might reject the European Union's constitution in next month's referendum - a potentially shattering blow to decades-long efforts to craft a politically and economically integrated continent.

French surveys have shown a steady rise for a "no'' vote to the charter that the 25 EU leaders, including French President Jacques Chirac, signed in October in Rome. The latest French poll, published Friday, indicated that 62 percent of voters will reject the constitution in the May 29 referendum - the highest figure so far.

The poll, conducted Wednesday, was published Friday in the French daily Metro. No margin of error was given in the Internet poll of 1,000 people conducted April 20 by the Market Tools agency.

A day earlier, a poll in the weekly l'Express put the "no'' vote at 58 percent.

There has been no victory for the "Yes'' camp in more than a month of polls about the May 29 referendum, and the French government's concern is evident - along with that of EU officials in Brussels.

"It is very clear the European Commission ... is worried by the turn of the statistics,'' EU spokeswoman Francoise le Bail said. "One must question if these results are really stable. But the trend seems to be there and that in itself is worrying.''

French rejection could be a fatal blow to Europe's struggle to craft a more politically and economically integrated club and could destabilize the euro currency used in France and 11 other EU countries.

All 25 EU members must approve the constitution for it to take effect.

When EU leaders signed the constitution, they agreed that if only 20 EU nations ratified it, they would review the document. It is unlikely, however, they will wait until late 2006, when all 25 nations have held either referendums or parliamentary votes on the document.

Mark Leonard, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, said in March that "a likely outcome is that Europe's leaders will convene a conference to salvage the parts of the constitution that matter most.''

The charter provides for an EU president and foreign minister, and a fairer voting system.

Few predict the EU's demise if France rejects the constitution. Yet the anticipation of a "no'' vote already is taking its toll.

EU foreign ministers are to debate the union's 2007-2013 spending for the first time Monday. There is supposed to be a decision in June, but the debate is not likely to get started because of uncertainty over the French referendum, a Dutch diplomat said.

Officials fear French rejection may affect the increasingly EU-critical Netherlands, which stages a referendum June 1, followed by Denmark and Ireland - two members that have staged repeat referendums on EU treaties in the past.

EU-skeptical Britain is widely expected to vote against the constitution in 2006, though Prime Minister Tony Blair has suggested there may not be a British vote if the French reject the document.

Luxembourg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker said France will lose its pride of place in Europe if it rejects the constitution. (The opinion of Luxemburg ranks somewhere beneath the South Georgia Islands.)
"It will be a rather long time before it finds its rank'' again, he told the French Roman Catholic daily La Croix Friday.

Last week, Norbert Walter, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said a French rejection might spark a speculative assault on the currencies of the 10 countries that joined the EU last year and whose "accession process to the single currency would be delayed if not stopped.'' (extreme bs; the constitutionalists are trying all the fear tactics they can think of.)
Lee Ferridge, chief currency strategist at Rabobank in London, is less pessimistic.

"Europe has survived this long without'' a constitution, he said. "There is much speculation, but it will not be the end of the story. But there will be a political impact.'' (n.s. How long before the next French referendum?)

 

[nosarcasm]

They already prepare to ignore the French No!

http://www.euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=18916

Commission: French 'no' should not kill Constitution's ratification22.04.2005 - 16:55 CET | By Lucia Kubosova

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - EU member states should press ahead with efforts to ratify the Constitution even if France says "no" in its 29 May referendum, the European Commission has urged.

Recent speculation by EU leaders that a French no could derail the Constitution project as a whole, sparked the European Commission's statement.

Brussels pointed out that an appendix to the draft treaty already contains a mechanism for dealing with ratification problems.


Rules should a referendum fail
The appendix includes a declaration that states "if, two years after the signature of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, four fifths of the Member States have ratified it and one or more Member States have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification, the matter will be referred to the European Council."

Czech MEP Jan Zahradil (EPP-ED) takes a different view, however.

"Member states cannot abide by the rules attached to a Treaty, which has not yet been ratified, that would be nonsense", he indicated.


"The declaration is not legally binding, but it leaves the door open for this Constitution to be approved even if some of the countries reject it", EU legal expert, Klaus Heeger, commented.

In practise, this would lead to a multi-speed EU, with the new treaty having a legally binding force in some states but not in others.

 

[padisha emperor]

Today's poll :

YES : 52 %
NO : 48 %

I hope the YES will continue to climb and win.