The great thing about the argument of Free Will vs. Determinism is that everything involved in making a choice whether by free will or determinism "feels" exactly the same. We are not aware that our decisions are impacted and at the mercy of other decisions and causes all around us. The very fact that we consider actions before taking them is one of the causes that produces effects.
Our considerations before we choose are only effects of other causes. Every decision we make, goes the argument, could be predicted if the sum total of all of the causes were known and understood.
Like billiard balls bouncing around due to the impacts of other balls, our decisions seem free ony because we do not understand the other forcing "impacts".
"feels" exactly the same.
Again, determinism allows for no choice (robots don't choose) so the fact that a "choice" "feels" one way or another is an argument for free will.
we consider actions before taking them
To consider is to note options and imply a free will at work
if the sum total of all of the causes were known
I like that argument for its clarity but I think it's ultimatly flawed. I think it implys that if we don't know everything then that is proof that we can't know anything.
I've heard it put, the hand you are dealt is determinism and the way you play it is free will. I think that allows for both causation and free will. There is cause and effect for sure. That can limit your choices but not negate the need to make choices. I know I'm not a ghost in the machine and unlike a determinist, I know the difference between a blink and a wink.
Our ability to make a choice is made possible only when there are options. By the same token, our ability to make a choice is limited by the finite number of options available. I may choose to marry Halle Berry. I have never met her and very likely never will. Oh, and I'm already married. My previous choices have abridged my exercise of free will.
In my youth I would choose whether or not to run 10 miles training for the cross country season. Choosing to run 10 miles is no longer an option. Choosing to run 1/10th of a mile may be an option, but why choose it?
So, is limiting my choices voluntarily a proof of free will? Is making the choice to limit my choices a proof of determinism due to the previous experiences?
Using your example above, each succeeding moment of existance deals us a new hand. The Chinese (I think) have a saying that the same man never steps in the river. This meaning that he has grown or has been changed by the act of living and so he is a different man every time he comes to the river.
The fortunate man always has more than one option. Less fortune means more narrow choices until, at last, we have no choice. As children, we sense that we have no limits and yet, our horizons are limited. As we grow to adulthood, we gain the sense of expanding freedom and power to influence our destiny. As we eventually age, our posessions and freedoms are slowly removed from us until at length we find ourselves in the care of others with very few choices or none at all.
Every life, every single one, is guided by this general course and yet every life has at least the illusion of free will. Our condition and circumstance provides us with our choices and we make them based on what is possible. The possible is often defined for us with painful lessons.
All of our striving and all of our confidence and doubt while glorious and monumental in the moment is a replay of what has gone before countless times. If there was actually free will, would not the results of lives be more various than they have been?
The plays of Shakespeare speak to people of all nations and all races and yet were written by a man whose experiences by the standards of today could most generously be described as parochial. Christ probably never wandered more than 100 miles from his place of birth. Plato lived in Athens his whole life. 3000 years of experience, three distinct cultures, three men of seemingly different backgrounds and all recorded words that resonate in the consciousness of the modern American.
"What shadows we are. What shadows we pursue."