Fraudulent polls trying to help Obama

[JustSomeGuy]

Check out the newest Pew Poll. It has Obama up 3, 50 - 47, in a "D+4" sample , 36D/32R/29I (page 12). The problem? Not only does that only add up to 97, but that's not what their own sample says!

On page 9 it has the party ID breakdown among likely voters. 843 respondents were Republicans, 1,007 were Democrats and 761 were Independents, for a total of 2,611 respondents.That means the real split of the poll is 38.5D/32.2R/29.1I, or something modeling the 2008 election.

That means that right now, even if Obama gets 2008 type turnout, he would only win by 3. These people know that UNLESS Republicans stay home, Obama is gone! That's all these folks are trying to do now. They know Obama is HISTORY so they're throwing out fraudulent polls. Do NOT let them sway you. Vote like your country DEPENDS on it!* After this election I hope to God 90% of these frauds go down in flames.


*Unless you're a Democrat. You can stay home.

 

[tooAlive]

Romney is winning this election.

Vote fraud or not.

 

[Zoom]

Stfu

 

[Charles_Main]

Check out the newest Pew Poll. It has Obama up 3, 50 - 47, in a "D+4" sample , 36D/32R/29I (page 12). The problem? Not only does that only add up to 97, but that's not what their own sample says!

On page 9 it has the party ID breakdown among likely voters. 843 respondents were Republicans, 1,007 were Democrats and 761 were Independents, for a total of 2,611 respondents.That means the real split of the poll is 38.5D/32.2R/29.1I, or something modeling the 2008 election.

That means that right now, even if Obama gets 2008 type turnout, he would only win by 3. These people know that UNLESS Republicans stay home, Obama is gone! That's all these folks are trying to do now. They know Obama is HISTORY so they're throwing out fraudulent polls. Do NOT let them sway you. Vote like your country DEPENDS on it!* After this election I hope to God 90% of these frauds go down in flames.


*Unless you're a Democrat. You can stay home.

They are just laying the Ground work for their Legal Challenges and Cry's of "they stole the Election"

 

[OKTexas]

Only poll that counts comes on Tuesday.

 

[Murf76]

What's interesting is that pollsters typically become a little more honest in those last couple of weeks before the election. Nobody wants to be the goat at the bottom of the list with their stats way off. I don't think that's necessarily the case this year though. That said, in terms of the above only adding up to 97... don't forget that there are some third party voters picking at the margins.

 

[Vanquish]

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model uses a more sophisticated method to estimate the chance of a polling miss.

For instance, it looks at how much the polls have historically missed the final margin in the election, rather than simply whethe
r they called the winner correctly.


Popular Vote
Obama
50.6%
+0.3 since Oct. 27

Romney
48.3%
-0.4 since Oct. 27

Chance of
Winning

Obama
85.1%
+11.5 since Oct. 27

Romney
14.9%
-11.5 since Oct. 27

Electoral Vote

Obama
306.9
+11.4 since Oct. 27

Romney
231.1
-11.4 since Oct. 27

Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com

77 out of 74 states since 1998 fall in line with the correct prediction. Now this model is predicting Obama. Sorry, Republicans. Romney's out.

 

[Lakhota]

It appears Obama has this election locked up.

 

[candycorn]

What's interesting is that pollsters typically become a little more honest in those last couple of weeks before the election. Nobody wants to be the goat at the bottom of the list with their stats way off. I don't think that's necessarily the case this year though. That said, in terms of the above only adding up to 97... don't forget that there are some third party voters picking at the margins.