Feb ADP Jobs Report

[task0778]

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/February/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-February2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 475,000 Jobs in February


Good news for the country, at a time when we could use some. We need people working and contributing.

Perhaps even better news is their revision to their Jan numbers...

The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 460,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 26 million workers in the U.S. The January total of jobs added was revised from -301,000 to 509,000.

It's good to see people going back to work, but something about those numbers is confusing to me. How do you revise the total number of jobs added in 1 month from -301k to 509k? That's too big of a jump for me, and rather begs the question of the accuracy of both numbers. Good report though, possibly due in part to the end of the bonus child care credit that expired on Jan 1. This is the chart that kinda tells us how we're really doing though:

It's the historical trend of the Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment.


AND:

This one is the Total Employment numbers in Total Nonfarm Private Employment. I look at these charts and see things aren't going south but not going north a whole lot either.

 

[rightwinger]

Free stuff ran out and Brandon's gas is going to 5 bucks a gallon. Even Democrats have to get off their asses and work.

Yeah, Let's Go Brandon!

Change the subject..

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!

Lets go Brandon!

 

[Harpy Eagle]

It's good to see people going back to work, but something about those numbers is confusing to me. How do you revise the total number of jobs added in 1 month from -301k to 509k? That's too big of a jump for me, and rather begs the question of the accuracy of both numbers.

The problem is the rush to get the report out at the very start of the month. They have not yet received all the data so they are going off an incomplete data set. Thus the revisions along the way.

 

[task0778]

The problem is the rush to get the report out at the very start of the month. They have not yet received all the data so they are going off an incomplete data set. Thus the revisions along the way.

Yeah, but that much of a revision makes them look really bad. I wonder who pays for that?

 

[Bob Blaylock]

so in your world more people working is not a good thing either. Got to make sure you get all the votes possible come Nov

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Show me a post from you making this same argument when your god Trump claimed to have created 4.5 million jobs in June of 2020, otherwise you are just one more mindless partisan drone

 

[Mac-7]

Show me a post from you making this same argument when your god Trump claimed to have created 4.5 million jobs in June of 2020, otherwise you are just one more mindless partisan drone

Is biden your god?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/February/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-February2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 475,000 Jobs in February


Good news for the country, at a time when we could use some. We need people working and contributing.

Perhaps even better news is their revision to their Jan numbers...

The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was derived from ADP payroll data, which represents 460,000 U.S. clients employing nearly 26 million workers in the U.S. The January total of jobs added was revised from -301,000 to 509,000.

BLS has now released their report.

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 Q01 Results

www.bls.gov

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent


More good news for the folks of a certain political view to get pissed off about

 

[task0778]

BLS has now released their report.

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 Q01 Results

www.bls.gov

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent


More good news for the folks of a certain political view to get pissed off about

Good numbers, to be sure. BUT - should we be ecstatically praising Biden and his administration? Let's dig a bit deeper into the BLS Report:

In February, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, and the number of
unemployed persons edged down to 6.3 million. In February 2020, prior to the coronavirus
(COVID-19) pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed
persons was 5.7 million.
.
Among the unemployed, the number of persons on temporary layoff, at 888,000 in February,
was little changed over the month. The number of permanent job losers, at 1.6 million in
February, also changed little. Both measures are higher than their February 2020 levels
of 780,000 and 1.3 million, respectively.
.
In February, the number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.1
million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was
essentially unchanged at 1.7 million. This measure is 581,000 higher than in February
2020. The long-term unemployed accounted for 26.7 percent of the total unemployed in
February 2022.
.
The labor force participation rate, at 62.3 percent in February, changed little over
the month. The employment-population ratio edged up to 59.9 percent. Both measures
remain below their February 2020 levels (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively).
.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February but is down by 2.1 million,
or 1.4 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
.
Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs in February. Employment in durable goods industries rose
by 20,000, with job gains in fabricated metal products (+11,000), machinery (+8,000),
electrical equipment and appliances (+4,000), nonmetallic mineral products (+3,000), furniture
and related products (+3,000), and primary metals (+3,000). These gains were partially
offset by a job loss in motor vehicles and parts (-18,000). Nondurable goods manufacturing
also added jobs over the month (+16,000). Since February 2020, manufacturing employment is
down by 178,000, or 1.4 percent.


So, over the last 12 months, has the employment picture improved? Compared to Feb 2021, not so hot IMHO. How many people that went back to work in the last few months are the same people who quit last summer and had to go back to work because the expanded child care benefits ran out on Jan 1? Some good news about wages:

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $31.58 in February,
were little changed over the month (+1 cent), after large increases in recent months. Over
the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.1 percent. In February,
average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by
8 cents to $26.94. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 34.7
hours in February. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees increased by
0.4 hour to 40.7 hours, and overtime rose by 0.2 hour to 3.6 hours. The average workweek
for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was up by 0.1 hour
to 34.1 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 78,000, from
+510,000 to +588,000, and the change for January was revised up by 14,000, from +467,000
to +481,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 92,000
higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received
from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the
recalculation of seasonal factors.)

The problem though is that inflation went up even faster, so the average Amercian's purchasing power kinda dropped.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Good numbers, to be sure. BUT - should we be ecstatically praising Biden and his administration?

I did not say a thing about Biden and his Admin. I do not give them any credit.

 

[task0778]

I did not say a thing about Biden and his Admin. I do not give them any credit.

True. Wasn't meaning to suggest otherwise. As you said in your OP:

Good news for the country, at a time when we could use some. We need people working and contributing.

Perhaps even better news is their revision to their Jan numbers...