Fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan are growing, and Taiwan isn't sure who would help if it happened

[Mac-7]

No. I just want you to think about unthinkable.

Why dont you think about this?

china is a time bomb waiting to explode

instead of an all-conquering superpower it could be headed for suffering not seen since the days of chairman mao

at first glance that sounds like music to my ears

but in fact china could drag the entire world economy down with it

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Why dont you think about this?

china is a time bomb waiting to explode

instead of an all-conquering superpower it could be headed for suffering not seen since the days of chairman mao

at first glance that sounds like music to my ears

but in fact china could drag the entire world economy down with it

Yes.

China is going to see its own correction. They have raised their standard of living (but only in some places, and only for some), and the Chinese people are already grumbling about their freedom and about not having access to this standard of living. They will expect better wages.

 

[Mac-7]

Yes.

China is going to see its own correction. They have raised their standard of living (but only in some places, and only for some), and the Chinese people are already grumbling about their freedom and about not having access to this standard of living. They will expect better wages.

All the warning signs are there for anyone willing to see

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

All the warning signs are there for anyone willing to see

Well, Tiananmen Square still reverberates. I think that has a big effect.

 

[Mac-7]

Well, Tiananmen Square still reverberates. I think that has a big effect.

Anyone who is smart will disinvest from china while they still can

 

[Silver Cat]

Japan does not need nukes. They are firmly under the "US Nuclear Umbrella". A nuke dropped on Japan will result in a nuclear retaliation by the US.

And the US does not have a "Credible First Strike Capability"? Well, because they would not strike first that is linguistically correct. But the counter-strike would be crippling.

Just in the Pacific, the US has 12 SSBN submarines and an additional 2 SSGN submarines.

All 12 of the SSBNs are Ohio class, with 24 Trident missiles each. That is 288 missiles for those that can not do math.

And that is just submarines. While "theoretically" the nuclear Tomahawk missiles are all retired, do not mistake that for they no longer exist. And if things started to heat up, it would only take a month or so to start putting them into service again. And the US is believed to have over 1,000 of them in storage.

And I have not even started to talk about the aircraft. Or land based missiles. That is just the submarines.

And you really think they have no strike capability?

And China has a whopping 6 SSBN subs. Each with a total of 12 single warhead missiles. Oh, and China also has no long range nuclear bombers that are of a threat to the US.

First of all, there are only eight SSBNs in Pacific, roughly half of them are in sea, and only two of them are at hard duty (in 15-minutes readiness), and there are only twenty missiles with real warheads (other four are with one 1kt petard each). Second - if there are Russian or Chinese attack submarine (or any other attack unit) nearby - they won't be able to launch all their missiles. Third - Russia would sell China some long range bombers with long range stealth cruise missiles. Fourth - flight time for them are roughly 30 minutes, so, China has at least 45-minutes warning for their own Launch Under Attack and to shelter their population (and prevent the unacceptable losses).
Therefore - the USA won't retaliate in any case except direct nuclear attack against American cities.

 

[Mushroom]

First of all, there are only eight SSBNs in Pacific

Submarine Squadron 17, Bangor Washington

USS Henry Jackson
USS Alabama
USS Nevada
USS Pennsylvania
USS Kentucky
USS Nebraska
USS Maine


Submarine Squadron 19, Bangor, Washington

USS Bremerton
USS Jacksonville
USS Louisiana

USS Ohio (SSGN)
USS Michigan (SSGN)


Gee, I am counting 12 here. Wish to tell me which 8 are really not in the Pacific?


And once again, why are you dragging in Russia? Trust me, if China nuked the US, Russia is smart enough to stay the hell away from that. Secondly, what Chinese submarines? You really seem to think there are Chinese subs hiding behind every rock in the ocean. In reality, Chinese subs tend to almost never leave their territorial waters.

Please come back to reality.

 

[Mushroom]

Therefore - the USA won't retaliate in any case except direct nuclear attack against American cities.

And in this, you are very delusional.

Okinawa is home to over 80,000 Americans. Only around 30,000 of them are actual military. The rest are families and the civilians that support them.

That would be the equivalent of nuking Flint, Michigan. And you really think the US would not respond, even not counting the treaty with Japan.

 

[Silver Cat]

Submarine Squadron 17, Bangor Washington

USS Henry Jackson
USS Alabama
USS Nevada
USS Pennsylvania
USS Kentucky
USS Nebraska
USS Maine


Submarine Squadron 19, Bangor, Washington

USS Bremerton
USS Jacksonville
USS Louisiana

USS Ohio (SSGN)
USS Michigan (SSGN)


Gee, I am counting 12 here. Wish to tell me which 8 are really not in the Pacific?


And once again, why are you dragging in Russia? Trust me, if China nuked the US, Russia is smart enough to stay the hell away from that. Secondly, what Chinese submarines? You really seem to think there are Chinese subs hiding behind every rock in the ocean. In reality, Chinese subs tend to almost never leave their territorial waters.

Please come back to reality.

Your information is terribly outdated. There are no more Naval Base Bangor and Naval Station Bremerton since 2004. There is Naval Base Kitsap.
And there are only those SSBNs:

USS Henry Jackson
USS Alabama
USS Nevada
USS Pennsylvania
USS Kentucky
USS Nebraska
USS Maine
USS Louisiana

Both USS Bremerton and USS Jacksonville were LA-class attack submarines and both were decommissioned in 2021.


The Russians consider the American militarisation of Eastern Europe as a vital and existencinal treat and determined to eliminate it by diplomatic or military way. Therefore, they need to distract the USA from the European theater, and the best way to do it - yes, it's to warm up a conflict in Pacific by supporting China (or any other anti-American force). Plus, the Russians consider Japan as a potential treat because of its territorial claims, and won't miss a chance to fight it by somebody else's hands (and nukes).

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Submarine Squadron 17, Bangor Washington

USS Henry Jackson
USS Alabama
USS Nevada
USS Pennsylvania
USS Kentucky
USS Nebraska
USS Maine


Submarine Squadron 19, Bangor, Washington

USS Bremerton
USS Jacksonville
USS Louisiana

USS Ohio (SSGN)
USS Michigan (SSGN)


Gee, I am counting 12 here. Wish to tell me which 8 are really not in the Pacific?

USS Jacksonville and USS Bremerton are SSNs, but "boomers".

 

[Silver Cat]

Talking about political signals...

Invite Taiwan to massive RIMPAC naval exercises, US defense act says | CNN

Taiwan should be invited to the world's largest naval exercise next year, according to the US' 2022 defense spending blueprint signed into law by President Joe Biden this week.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Silver Cat]

So... Let's continue with the Chinese nuclear forces:

People's Liberation Army Rocket Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

They have more than 150 ICBMs with 1-8 warheads each.

People's Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

They have 6 Jin-class submarines, with 12 JL-2 (or JL-3) missiles each, with 1-8 warheads.

 

[Mushroom]