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Moving Forward in Iraq
The "surge" is working. Will Washington allow the current progress to continue?
BY KIMBERLY KAGAN
Wednesday, July 11, 2007 12:01 a.m.
In Washington perception is often mistaken for reality. And as Congress prepares for a fresh debate on Iraq, the perception many members have is that the new strategy has already failed.
This isn't an accurate reflection of what is happening on the ground, as I saw during my visit to Iraq in May. Reports from the field show that remarkable progress is being made. Violence in Baghdad and Anbar Province is down dramatically, grassroots political movements have begun in the Sunni Arab community, and American and Iraqi forces are clearing al Qaeda fighters and Shiite militias out of long-established bases around the country.
This is remarkable because the military operation that is making these changes possible only began in full strength on June 15. To say that the surge is failing is absurd. Instead Congress should be asking this question: Can the current progress continue?
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July 11, 2007
A Tale of Two Letters
While the Democrats steadfastly maintain an eerie code of silence on the issue of al Qaeda in Iraq (more on that at the end of my post), and while the New York Times tries to help them out by seeking novel ways to deliberately downplay the al Qaeda threat in Iraq (see my post about that here), everyone else should try to base their understanding of what is happening in Iraq on factual evidence. Of the many lines of evidence that could be considered, two intercepted letters between al Qaeda's leaders offer some of the most relevant information...
How Al Qaeda is Winning Even as it is Losing
By J.D. Johannes : 11 Jul 2007
iraq-war-soldiers
In Iraq, the administration has empowered a general and officer corps capable of winning the war on the ground. Now it must develop the media corps that can win the war on the airwaves. June 2007 saw a dramatic turnaround in our military fortunes, with the insurgents in headlong retreat in Anbar, Baghdad, and Diayala. But al Qaeda continued to dominate its chosen battlefield: America's living rooms.
The War on the Ground
In the first month of full implementation - June, 2007 - the "surge" strategy of General David Petraeus resulted in a 32% decline in Iraqi deaths. An anti-al Qaeda alliance of Sunni chiefs, Coalition forces, and the Iraqi Army drove the insurgency out of most of al Anbar, and much of Baghdad.
Over the past three months, I was privileged to observe "surge" operations as a reporter embedded with combat units. I assure my readers: these operations were no mere repetition of the futile "clearing" raids of the past. General David Petraeus has implemented a regimen based on a career-long study of counterinsurgency. The revised tactics include meticulous census taking of persons and vehicles; skilled, persistent diplomacy with tribal leaders; incorporation of local intelligence; constant foot patrols in the residential areas from platoon and squad sized outposts; and persistent perimeter control of areas cleared and held.
4th Generational War
But in the flush of battlefield success, public perception of American military progress continued its calamitous decline. According to Pew Research, the percentage of Americans who opine that America's military operations are "going well" slid from 38% in May '07 to 34% in June; those who believe our military operations are "not going well" increased from 57% of respondents to 61%.
The same Pew poll found that only 30% of the public could identify General David Patraeus and only 27% could identify Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. 59% of respondents were unaware that Shi'ites constitute the majority religious group in Iraq. Precise knowledge of the war's progress is obviously scarce. Yet 95% of respondents have defined opinions on the success of our arms.
What explains the downtick of confidence against a backdrop of success?
Since mid-2005, al Qaeda has aimed not to defeat the Coalition militarily, but to drain American public support politically. The strategy was forced on the insurgents by a string of failures in 2004 and 2005. The Baathist groups and their al Qaeda allies planned first to establish a geographic base of control within Iraq; second, to block Iraqi elections; and third, to prevent the establishment of the Iraqi Security Forces. They failed to achieve any of these goals.
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This is the Baghdad Security Plan, and its mission is to secure the people of Baghdad. Even so, commanders are not ignoring the outlying areas of Iraq. U.S. forces have killed or captured many important al Qaeda leaders in Mosul recently, and destroyed safe havens throughout northern Iraq. Troops are conducting counterinsurgency operations in Bayji, north of Tikrit. And Iraqi forces have "stepped up" to secure some southern cities. The Eighth Iraqi Army Division has been fighting Shiite militias in Diwaniyah, an important city halfway between Basrah and Baghdad. As commanders stabilize central Iraq, they will undoubtedly conduct successive operations in outlying regions to follow up on their successes and make them lasting.
The larger aim of the new strategy is creating an opportunity for Iraq's leaders to negotiate a political settlement. These negotiations are underway. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is attempting to form a political coalition with Amar al-Hakim and Kurdish political leaders, but excluding Moqtada al-Sadr, and has invited Sunnis to participate. He has confronted Moqtada al-Sadr for promoting illegal militia activity, and has apparently prompted this so-called Iraqi nationalist to leave for Iran for the second time since January.
Provincial and local government is growing stronger. Local and tribal leaders in Anbar, Diyala, Salah ad-Din, North Babil and even Baghdad have agreed to fight insurgents and terrorists as U.S. forces have moved in to secure the population alongside their Iraqi partners. As a result, the number of Iraqis recruited for the police forces, in particular, has risen exponentially since 2006.
This is war, and the enemy is reacting. The enemy uses suicide bombs, car bombs and brutal executions to break our will and that of our Iraqi allies. American casualties often increase as troops move into areas that the enemy has fortified; these casualties will start to fall again once the enemy positions are destroyed. Al Qaeda will manage to get some car and truck bombs through, particularly in areas well-removed from the capital and its belts.
But we should not allow individual atrocities to obscure the larger picture. A new campaign has just begun, it is already yielding important results, and its effects are increasing daily. Demands for withdrawal are no longer demands to pull out of a deteriorating situation with little hope; they are now demands to end a new approach to this conflict that shows every sign of succeeding.
Ms. Kagan, an affiliate of Harvard's John M. Olin Institute of Strategic Studies, is executive director of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.
Good for the Iraqis. Great job troops.
And of all the benchmarks set for the Iraqi government, how many have they completed so far?
Its not the nay-sayers who aren't paying attention...
Security Forces Improve in Baghdad, Politics Founder
First White House Report Since Troop Surge Finds Mixed Success
July 11, 2007
An eagerly awaited White House report on Iraq will be released tomorrow, which will claim that the Iraqi government has made satisfactory progress on eight of the 18 benchmarks set by Congress.
This is the first assessment of the Iraqi government's success rate since President Bush ordered the troop surge last January. White House officials tell ABC News' Jonathan Karl the report will cite encouraging signs that should eventually lead to a reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq.
The report notes that progress is "satisfactory" on eight of the benchmark criteria, the criteria that deals mostly with the Iraqi security forces.
In one case of a "satisfactory" benchmark, the Iraqi army sent three brigades to help secure Baghdad, as promised.
But a senior White House official told ABC News the report would also show disappointments, as progress on eight other benchmarks is described as "not satisfactory" that includes most of the benchmarks on political reconciliation.
Progress on the remaining two benchmarks is labeled "mixed."
Overall, the report points to an eventual draw down of U.S. troops and claims "some encouraging signs that, over time, should point to a more normal and sustainable level of U.S. engagement in Iraq."
New Strategy 'Succeeding'
In advance of the expected White House report, Republican Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham who both recently returned from Iraq gave their own assessment in a briefing with Bush today.
"We adopted a new strategy, and this strategy is succeeding and should be given a chance to succeed," McCain said.
But ABC News has also learned of a recent military intelligence assessment that offers a more mixed picture.
This report notes a decline in attacks on civilians and a near miraculous turnaround in Anbar Province, which, just last year, was considered the most dangerous in Iraq.
At the same time, the intelligence assessment said attacks on U.S. forces are way up, with the overall number of violent incidents in June reaching a record high in Iraq with an average of 178 attacks a day the overwhelming majority against U.S. forces.
Still, the surge of additional forces in Iraq has only been fully in place for about three weeks, and military officials indicate it's simply too early to say whether it is working .
Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, said again today that fighting a counterinsurgency war takes time and in his assessment, that is about 10 years.
Democrats Fear of Iraq Surge Success Grows
On Monday, Senate Majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV) told reporters that he and other Democrats were not willing to wait for evaluated reports on the troop surge in Iraq. Reid advised that he and his colleagues are moving at virtual breakneck speed to formulate and pass an anti-war bill. While al-Qaeda continues to practice all manner of depravities and perversionsthe latest reported corruption being the terrorist organizations penchant for the profane via literally (not figuratively) baking the children of those it wishes to intimidate and then serving said cooked progeny to their parentsmost of their debaucheries still go unreported by the terrorist-enabling leftist worldwide press. Most certainly Harry Reid and other Democrat and RINO leaders committed to surrender wont mention the actual performance and true scope of the Islamists goals. Instead, Reid and other appeasers are unwilling to wait for any and all reports from those actually functioning in the Iraq battle theatre. As reports from the front suggest the surge (AKA Operation Arrowhead Ripper) actually is working, the leftist and overwhelmingly Democrat US mainstream media continues their attempts to bury the story.
Note: This same battle surge, being waged by our extraordinary and inordinately courageous US soldiers, must be spun and manipulated by the mainstream media and their Democrat leaders in order for them to achieve their objective of reseizing and then retaining (forever we assume) power. The illusion of power has long been their god.
Because Senator Reid and other Democrats are now the official water carriers for MoveOn.org and other leftist money groups, traditional pro-American Democrats have long since been forced out of leadership positionsif not the Democrat Party. Displaying his submission to anything-for-a-buck-and-a-big-piece-of-the-power-pie, Reid and other Democrat Party members talk daily with MoveOn.org and the Las Vegas Sun reports: Every morning at 10:30, staff from the Democratic leadership offices is on the line with representatives of nearly a dozen groups, including powerful moveon.org, that make up the Americans Against Escalation in Iraq. One suspects that this is when the Democrats receive their daily marching orders. To emphasize his alliance with the far-Left, Reid has now even taken to demeaning US military leaders who disagree with his constant bogus statement the [Iraq] war is lost. Recently, Reid referred to Gen. Peter Pace as incompetent and said that Pace had not done a very good job... I told him that to his face! Wow! How brave of a senator to verbally slap a General in his face. This is the same senator who has the mainstream press in his pocket, so that his unethical land escapades are seldomif everreported.
Of interest, on Wednesdays Bill Bennett Morning in America Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-OK) spoke of his recent trip to Iraq. Inhofe commented on the troop surge in Iraqs success. As the mainstream media and their Democrat masters continue to tell us that the US surge isnt working, Inhofewho actually visits Iraqtells a different story. In May, Sen. Inhofe said: The Iraqis have now taken over; they have the numbers and the capacity and they've taken over the battle space in Fallujah. In other words, they're providing their own security. It's a success story in Fallujah, one of the most difficult areas to deal with. Hmmm. After reading reports from the NY Times and other far-Left publications, Id thought the Iraqis werent stepping up to the plate at all. Didnt you?
Sen. Inhofe went on to say: The troop surge has given us the troop numbers to push al Qaeda out of most of the area in the Anbar province and allowed governance to hold onto their own destiny. This is a major change. This is my seventh time in this area, and the Sunni tribes now see the need to work together with us against al Qaeda. Then, on Bill Bennetts radio program, Inhofe advised that due to the success of the surge, there have been no anti-American messages since April preached in Iraqi mosques. This is a very different story than that which our press and Democrat senators are telling us. And it is another example of liberal and leftist leadersfrom both US political partieslying to the public in order to gain funding from anti-war/anti-American groups and credence with news sources. Corruption is, apparently, a most seductive mistress.
The Democrat Party is telling we-the-people that it will continue to force the US out of Iraq and, presumably, the Middle East as a whole. It is also telling al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations: Weve got your back, guys, and if we can seize all three branches of governmentwell give you Iraq and youll be home free! That is precisely what is intended and what will occur if this country is forced into a total leftist mindset. And force is what leftistsand Islamist terroristsrequire to complete their missions. If the Iraq war is actually won by the West, US Democrats will have a much harder chance of winning electionsand winning elections (AKA power and money) are the only items left that seem to be of any import to Congressional electees. Reid and others already appear to have damned the USA and have begun stronger and stronger campaigns against our own military men and women. The Democrats fear is that if we dont lose this warthey wont be reelected. The term sicko should actually refer to the anti-USA contingent entrenched in Congress.
Again, I ask the question is this any way to run a country? Unfortunately, the answer is still the same: No. But, it is a real way to end it.
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20070018352&ch=7/10/2007 10:01:00 AM
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YTA0Zjk0NjM0NTVmOGJlZGUzYmM4MTU1MzQ3NjI3NGU=
http://www.onenewsnow.com/2007/07/mainstream_media_columnist_say.php
http://wpherald.com/articles/5271/1/Lieberman-says-Iraq-surge-Is-working/Lieberman-
challenges-Lugars-negative-assessment.html
http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/RichGalen/2007/06/15/harry_reid_gets_a_pass
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/14/226276.aspx
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8KMJ8I00&show_article=1
Sher Zieve
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Biography - Sher Zieve
Sher Zieve is an author, political commentator, Staff Writer and Program Director for The New Media Alliance (www.thenma.org). Zieves Op/Ed columns are widely carried by multiple Internet Journals and sites and she also writes hard news. Her columns have also appeared in The Oregon Herald, Dallas Times, Boston Star, Massachusetts Sun, Sacramento Sun, in International news publications and on multiple University websites and is currently working on her first political book: The Liberals Guide To Conservatives http://www.augustagency.com/authors.htm Zieve firmly believes that if Leftists ran the country (and left to their own inane devices), it would be the end of the United States as a sovereign nation.
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Congress.... WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!!
