Doc7505
Diamond Member
- Feb 16, 2016
- 15,711
- 27,669
- 2,430
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.
~~ Snip ~~
If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.
In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.
Comment:
Hmmm...., "Did I instill a world panic, economic collapse, and apocalyptic fear in the hearts and minds of all of the civilized world because my model was so drastically inaccurate?? Whoopsie! Silly me!"
In other news the LSM blames Trump for overestimating crisis.
Meanwhile, Progressive Marxist Socialist/DSA Leftist Democrats pandering fear mongering, disease and “panic” is already fading ... this will be over in a couple of weeks ... but... the schools will still be closed ... the graduations cancelled ... Billion$$$ lost in celebrations & wedding receptions ... businesses bankrupted & millions of Americans unemployed ... INTENTIONALLY ... just to hurt Trump.
The PMS/DSA Democrats and their Lame Stream Media lackeys will continue screeching that it’s Trumps fault ... oh yeah ... and that he’s a racist too ... cause it’s all they’ve got ... and the election is in 8 months.
This one seems to have a strange combination of short duration before contagiousness but long duration before symptoms appear.
The one (possible/hopeful) good thing is that a lot of people do not have severe symptoms.
There it’s still a high to risk the elderly.
We probably need to work toward getting the tests out there and lifting these lockdowns/quarantines.
We also need to institute very strong safeguards for our elderly/at-risk populations at the same time.
Last edited:
