Coal wasn’t killed by a political “war” — cheap renewables and fracked gas were the culprits.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has a message for the new president: You are not going to bring coal back.
Donald Trump won the presidency with claims that he is a brilliant businessman who will create jobs. He railed against a political “war on coal” supposedly waged by President Obama, one Trump claimed was “killing American jobs.” On his first day in office, Trump deleted all the climate change references on the White House website, replacing it with an “energy plan” that asserts he is “committed to… reviving America’s coal industry.”
In a new analysis, leading independent energy experts at BNEF dismantle these claims. “Whatever President Trump may say, U.S. coal’s main problem has been cheap natural gas and renewable power, not a politically driven ‘war on coal,’” explain BNEF chair Michael Liebreich and chief editor Angus McCrone. Therefore “it will continue being pushed out of the generating mix.”
They note global electricity demand has grown much less than expected (thanks in part to energy efficiency). This 2016 Energy Information Administration (EIA) chart shows the trend here:
U.S. power generation since 2006, showing decline of coal (light blue) as both natural gas (yellow) and new renewables (brown) rose, while nuclear (green) and hydro (dark blue) remain flat. Via EIA.
In a world of flat demand, the electricity market is a ruthless game of musical chairs — where the slowest and most unwieldy power sources keep losing their seat.
Coal power is just too costly and inflexible, explains BNEF: “Super-low-cost renewable power — what we are now calling ‘base-cost renewables’ — is going to force a revolution in the way power grids are designed, and the way they are regulated.”
When you add the revolution in cheap fracked gas — which Trump has pledged to double down on — it’s no surprise the country shut down over 40 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations since 2000. “These will not reopen whatever anything President Trump does,” explains BNEF, “nor do we see much appetite among investors for ploughing money into U.S. coal extraction — stranded asset risk will trump rhetoric.”
More: Energy experts give Trump the hard truth: You can’t bring coal back
Coal powered our industrial revolution - but its day is over. Coal is now in its final death throes.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has a message for the new president: You are not going to bring coal back.
Donald Trump won the presidency with claims that he is a brilliant businessman who will create jobs. He railed against a political “war on coal” supposedly waged by President Obama, one Trump claimed was “killing American jobs.” On his first day in office, Trump deleted all the climate change references on the White House website, replacing it with an “energy plan” that asserts he is “committed to… reviving America’s coal industry.”
In a new analysis, leading independent energy experts at BNEF dismantle these claims. “Whatever President Trump may say, U.S. coal’s main problem has been cheap natural gas and renewable power, not a politically driven ‘war on coal,’” explain BNEF chair Michael Liebreich and chief editor Angus McCrone. Therefore “it will continue being pushed out of the generating mix.”
They note global electricity demand has grown much less than expected (thanks in part to energy efficiency). This 2016 Energy Information Administration (EIA) chart shows the trend here:
U.S. power generation since 2006, showing decline of coal (light blue) as both natural gas (yellow) and new renewables (brown) rose, while nuclear (green) and hydro (dark blue) remain flat. Via EIA.
In a world of flat demand, the electricity market is a ruthless game of musical chairs — where the slowest and most unwieldy power sources keep losing their seat.
Coal power is just too costly and inflexible, explains BNEF: “Super-low-cost renewable power — what we are now calling ‘base-cost renewables’ — is going to force a revolution in the way power grids are designed, and the way they are regulated.”
When you add the revolution in cheap fracked gas — which Trump has pledged to double down on — it’s no surprise the country shut down over 40 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations since 2000. “These will not reopen whatever anything President Trump does,” explains BNEF, “nor do we see much appetite among investors for ploughing money into U.S. coal extraction — stranded asset risk will trump rhetoric.”
More: Energy experts give Trump the hard truth: You can’t bring coal back
Coal powered our industrial revolution - but its day is over. Coal is now in its final death throes.
