Egypt should have waited for elections

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Inesha Premaratne, an intern with the GPS show, speaks with Gregory Gause III, professor of political science at the University of Vermont and non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, about recent developments in Egypt.

What’s your take on what’s happening in Egypt right now?

Well, I’m pessimistic about what’s happening right now. It seems to me that you have a precedent of the military coming in and ousting an elected government. No matter how bad the government was, that’s a bad precedent for democracy. Secondly, if through this action what you get is a Muslim Brotherhood that is pressured by the state and is either not allowed or not willing to participate itself in the political process, you just can’t have an inclusive democracy.

So would you say that it would have been preferable for the Egyptians to wait for the elections rather than have the military stage a coup?

Yes, I would say that. They should have waited for the parliamentary elections; that would have been better for democracy. You’ll find many Egyptians that will say I’m an idiot, that I don’t understand that the Brotherhood was entrenching itself to such an extent that the elections would have been useless. But in my reading of the Egyptian situation I hadn’t seen the Brotherhood crossing that line yet where they were so monopolizing power, that the elections would have been a sham.

Let’s examine the nature of the transition itself as compared to others we’ve seen. In your piece The Year the Arab Spring Went Bad, you wrote that democratic transitions are particularly tough in this region. Can you explain why you think this is so?

First off, I think we should banish the assumption that the natural end state of the fall of an authoritarian government is democracy. We were kind of spoiled by the results of transitions in Eastern Europe and in the democratic wave in Latin America and East Asia in the 80’s and 90’s. Many of those transitions did end up in democratic results, so we came to think that democracy was the default position for a transition from authoritarianism.

So why is it harder in this region? I think there are two kinds of cleavages that exist in Arab countries that make stable democratic transitions particularly difficult. The first kind of cleavage is ethnic and sectarian – whether it be the competing identities of Kurds and Arabs or Sunnis and Shiites or Muslims and Christians. In a place like Syria or Iraq where those identities are very salient, it’s hard to have a democratic transition because first elections tend to end up being a sectarian/ethnic census. Minorities don’t trust majorities and majorities come to loathe minorities who have held power over them. Politics becomes an all or nothing game, where compromise is very hard to achieve.

The second kind of cleavage is ideological. People have to ask whether they want an Islamist government, as was the case for the Muslim Brotherhood before its fall in Egypt, or a more secular one. This kind of ideological fight is relevant not just in Egypt but also across the Middle East, from Morocco to Iraq and also in non-Arab countries like Turkey and Iran. When societies are characterized by severe identity and ideological cleavages, the spirit of compromise and toleration that makes democracy work is hard to come by.

Analyst: Egypt should have waited for elections ? Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs
 
Uncle Ferd says ask `em how'd dey like it if we was to cut off our military aid to `em...
:eusa_shifty:
US Senators Press Egypt to End Crisis
August 06, 2013 > U.S. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham said they have urged Egypt's interim leaders to free Islamist figures from prison to facilitate a dialogue on resolving the country's political crisis.
McCain and Graham spoke in Cairo Tuesday after meeting Egyptian military chief and Defense Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. The senior U.S. lawmakers traveled to Egypt at the request of President Barack Obama, who sought their help in encouraging Egypt to return to democratic rule. Addressing reporters at a news conference at the U.S. embassy, Graham said he believes it is "impossible" for the Egyptian government to hold a dialogue with someone "who is in jail." Egypt's interim authorities have detained senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood, including former president Mohamed Morsi, since ousting him from power on July 3. Authorities accuse the prominent Islamists of incitement to violence.

Graham said that if the detained political figures have committed crimes, the Egyptian justice system should deal with those in the future. McCain said all parties in Egypt should engage in dialogue on a democratic political transition, provided they renounce violence. The two senators also criticized the overthrow of Mr. Morsi as a "coup," marking a departure from the Obama administration, which has said it views the incident as part of a process of "restoring democracy." The Egyptian military said it acted against Mr. Morsi in response to the will of millions of secular and liberal Egyptians who staged nationwide mass protests calling on the Islamist leader to quit.

Morsi had taken office one year earlier as Egypt's first democratically-elected president, but critics accused him of monopolizing power in the hands of the Brotherhood and threatening their secular lifestyle. The Brotherhood said a meeting between one of its jailed senior leaders and international envoys on Monday was terse and unproductive. Khairat el-Shater, the deputy chief of the Brotherhood, met with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and European and Arab diplomats. A Brotherhood spokesman said Shater told the international envoys they were wasting their time and should be talking to Mr. Morsi.

The State Department said there are no plans for Burns to meet Morsi, who has been in detention at an undisclosed location since July 3. The Brotherhood has been holding two large round-the-clock vigils in Cairo to demand Morsi's reinstatement. Security officials have threatened to break up the protest camps. The United States has urged Egyptians to avoid violence. The interim government has said it will put Shater and Brotherhood chief Mohammed Badie on trial August 25. T hey are accused of starting violence that led to the deaths of protesters outside Brotherhood headquarters in June. Badie remains at large.

US Senators Press Egyptians to End Crisis

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Egypt bristles as US pols urge freeing prisoners
Aug 6,`13 -- Two U.S. Senators came to Egypt Tuesday with a message for the country's new military-backed leaders: Release Islamist figures as a gesture to the Muslim Brotherhood or risk making "a huge mistake."
The message from Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham met with a sharp response, denounced by interim President Adly Mansour in a brief statement as "unacceptable interference in internal politics." The new leadership, emboldened by mass demonstrations of support, showed no sign of willingness to release Muslim Brotherhood figures whom McCain called "political prisoners" and whom the government plans to prosecute for allegedly inciting violence. As the senators made their rounds, authorities announced that two Morsi aides would be jailed and face charges of inciting violence in December when Muslim Brotherhood members attacked a sit-in by protesters outside Morsi's office that sparked clashes, killing 10 people.

At stake is stability in the Arab world's most populous country. The new leadership is facing international calls to ease its crackdown on Morsi's group while also dealing with calls by millions of Egyptians to clear Brotherhood-led sit-ins in two major intersections of the capital. Some 250 people have been killed in various clashes since Morsi's ouster. The Brotherhood is demanding Morsi's reinstatement as Egypt's first freely elected president while the new government vows to push ahead with fresh elections early next year. The McCain-Graham visit was carried out at U.S. President Barack Obama's request, but their message differed from his. For one thing, they called what happened on July 3 a coup, a word the administration avoided because it would trigger a suspension of the $1.3 billion a year in U.S. military aid to Egypt.

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said "Our position has not changed" regarding the word "coup." "Sen.McCain and Sen. Graham are certainly entitled to their opinions, just as any member of Congress is." At a news conference in Cairo after meeting government officials, military leaders and members of the Brotherhood's political wing, the senators stressed the need to free prisoners. "It is impossible to talk with somebody who's in jail. That is not a sustainable model that will allow transition to occur," said Graham. "The status quo is unacceptable. Something's got to give," he said. He also said his message to the government is: "If you think you can negotiate with people who are in jail and that's the way you're going to negotiate, you're making a huge mistake."

Echoing that sentiment, McCain said the Brotherhood must be included in Egypt's transition. "Our purpose is to try to urge our friends toward a process that can avert a very serious situation that can affect not only the Arab world, but also the United States." Graham suggested that U.S. military aid could be at risk. "We cannot support Egypt that is not moving toward democracy. Our aid is going to be tied to what's best, from our point of view, for the world, Egypt and the region," he said. McCain, however, said cutting off aid "would have been the wrong thing to do and the wrong time." The two Senators also said they made clear that they want the Brotherhood to renounce violence before negotiations start.

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Uncle Ferd says, "Dem Muslim Brotherhoods pro'bly ain't even got a diploma...
:eusa_shifty:
Egypt says diplomacy has failed to resolve crisis
Aug 7,`13 -- Egypt's military-backed interim leadership proclaimed Wednesday that a crackdown against two protest sites is inevitable, saying that nearly two weeks of foreign diplomatic efforts to peacefully resolve its standoff with the Muslim Brotherhood have failed.
The government's statements strongly suggested that Egypt's sharp polarization may spiral into even more bloodshed as thousands of supporters of ousted President Mohammed Morsi, a longtime Brotherhood figure, camp out at two main Cairo intersections and hold daily protests outside security buildings. At stake is stability in the Arab world's most populous country. Already more than 250 people have been killed in violence since the military ousted Morsi last month, including at least 130 Brotherhood supporters in two major clashes between security forces and backers of the deposed president. "The decision agreed on by all to clear the sit-ins is final and irreversible," Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi said on state television, reading a statement issued by the Egyptian Cabinet.

In response, top Muslim Brotherhood figure Mohammed el-Beltagy said the protesters are determined to keep up the sit-ins. "What we care about is for there to be clear talks about our position against the military coup and the importance of returning legitimacy," el-Beltagy told The Associated Press at the main protest site in the capital's Nasr City neighborhood. He said the Cabinet's statement makes "clear that they lack vision with regard to the political scene."

A joint statement released late Wednesday by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. "We remain concerned and troubled that government and opposition leaders have not yet found a way to break a dangerous stalemate and agree to implement tangible confidence building measures," the statement said. "The Egyptian government bears a special responsibility to begin this process to ensure the safety and welfare of its citizens," it said. "Now is not the time to assess blame, but to take steps that can help initiate a dialogue and move the transition forward."

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Egypt crisis: US-EU call to end 'dangerous stalemate'
7 August 2013 > The US and the European Union have called on all sides in Egypt's political crisis to end "a dangerous stalemate" after the interim government said foreign mediation had failed.
In a joint statement, they said the Egyptian government bore a special responsibility to begin this process. The army-backed government says it will break up sit-ins in Cairo being held by supporters of ousted President Morsi. Scores have died in unrest since Mohammed Morsi was ousted on 3 July. Since then, diplomats from the US, EU, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have all tried to bring Egypt's political process back on track.

But on Wednesday the office of interim President Adly Mansour declared in a statement that the "phase of diplomatic efforts has ended today". "These efforts have not achieved the hoped-for results," said the statement. The presidency said it held the Muslim Brotherhood - which backs Mr Morsi - "completely responsible for the failure of these efforts". The government statement came hours after US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns left Egypt following several days of mediation talks. He was assisted by EU envoy Bernardino Leon.

Shortly afterwards, US Secretary of State John Kerry and EU High Representative Catherine Ashton issued a joint statement. "While further violent confrontations have thus far been avoided, we remain concerned and troubled that government and opposition leaders have not yet found a way to break a dangerous stalemate and agree to implement tangible confidence building measures," they said. "The Egyptian government bears a special responsibility to begin this process to ensure the safety and welfare of its citizens," the statement continued. "This remains a very fragile situation, which holds not only the risk of more bloodshed and polarisation in Egypt, but also impedes the economic recovery which is so essential for Egypt's successful transition. "Now is not the time to assess blame, but to take steps that can help initiate a dialogue and move the transition forward."

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Sissi wins Egyptian election...
:eusa_shifty:
Sissi Wins But How Will He Rule?
May 29, 2014 WASHINGTON — There was never any doubt about the outcome of Egypt’s presidential elections: with the full power of the state behind him and no real competition, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has won more than 90 percent of the vote.
But desperate efforts by the government to boost the turnout by extending voting to three days have punctured the myth of Sissi’s overwhelming popularity and the notion that he can rule Egypt successfully without regard to the views of millions who showed their ambivalence or disapproval by staying home. The government insists Sissi’s toll far exceeded the 12 million votes Mohamed Morsi took in Egypt’s first – and so far only -- competitive presidential elections in 2012. However, the 40 million people Sissi exhorted to turn out did not do so even by the government’s own claims. With little independent monitoring, it is hard to know how many votes Sissi actually received.

The lack of enthusiasm for Sissi is not surprising. Despite their many disappointments since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak three years ago, Egyptians have become used to a certain amount of political freedom and saw little reason to participate in an election whose results were seen as predetermined. Also, the support for Sissi that developed during Morsi’s misrule has faded since last summer’s coup. Egypt’s economy continues to languish with high unemployment and sparse investment and is only able to dole out subsidized necessities because of cash handouts from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy, visiting Washington earlier this month, said the Egyptian economy needs “to grow 8-10% a year just to make ends meet.”

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Egypt's former Defense Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, May 22, 2013

A recent poll by the Pew Research Center showed that 72 percent of Egyptians are unhappy with the direction of the country. Barely half of those polled -- 54 percent -- supported last year’s coup against Morsi, the same percentage that said they approved of Sissi. According to the poll, 43 percent opposed the ouster of Morsi, 45 percent viewed Sissi unfavorably and 42 percent expressed a favorable opinion of Morsi, who languishes in jail along with thousands of other supporters of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood and members of the liberal opposition. A government crackdown has killed some 2,000 people in just the last year and Sissi has equated political dissent with terrorism.

The elections thus were hardly a ringing endorsement of the new president. Egyptian commentators say that Sissi relied too much on state dominance of the media and are worried about what his failure to stage more successful elections says about his ability to govern effectively. As a military man, he appears unaccustomed to dealing with a society that refuses to obey orders. Michele Dunne, an expert on Egypt at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told VOA that Sissi might need to rethink his initial decision not to form a political party given the difficulties in mobilizing voters this week. “He thought he could do it without a machine,” she said. Dunne also called official claims of a 47 percent turnout “not credible.”

With his halo cracked, Sissi would do well to show some humility and reach out to his opponents but that may be too much to expect in a region where politics has reverted to zero sum. Dunne noted that Sissi is obliged to continue his crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood by his Saudi and UAE backers, who have also outlawed the organization. Sissi will also be hard-pressed to institute needed economic reforms, she said, out of fear that he will antagonize a lukewarm base. “Sisi has support but it’s soft and it’s falling,” Dunne said.

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ANALYSIS: IN EGYPT, A PYRRHIC LANDSLIDE VICTORY
29 May`14 -- The election of Egypt's former military chief to the nation's presidency may be remembered for its central irony: He won in a historic landslide - only to shatter his image of invulnerability in the process.
Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's win was never in doubt, but what the retired 59-year-old field marshal wanted was an overwhelming turnout that would accord legitimacy to his July ouster of Egypt's first freely elected president - the Islamist Mohammed Morsi - and show critics at home and abroad that his action reflected the will of the people. In his last interview before polls opened, he exuberantly told Egyptians he wanted more than 40 million of the nearly 54 million registered voters to turn out. The reality was more tepid. According to unofficial results announced by his campaign early Thursday, el-Sissi won more than 92 percent of the vote, resoundingly beating his sole rival, leftist politician Hamdeen Sabahi.

However, turnout nationwide was around 46 percent, according by interim President Adly Mansour. Not the worst of the multiple elections held the past three years, but below the nearly 52 percent turnout in the 2012 election that Morsi won. The victory was tainted by the extraordinary means used by the military-backed government to get even that many voters to the polls. After signs that the turnout on the first of two scheduled days of voting on Monday was a lowly 15 percent, the government declared the next day a national holiday to free people to go to polls. The election commission threatened to slap fines of $70 - a hefty sum for most Egyptians - on those who did not vote. When Tuesday polling still seemed low, the commission abruptly extended the election to a third day. The state made bus and train travel free to allow migrants to return to home districts to vote. Throughout the day, TV networks berated Egyptians as "ungrateful" and "traitors" for not voting.

To many, it was clear the state was trying to help its favored candidate, reminiscent of machinations during the 29-year-rule of autocrat Hosni Mubarak, toppled in a 2011 pro-democracy uprising. And el-Sissi was not supposed to need a boost. For the past 10 months, the government, TV stations and newspapers have made him the object of relentless adulation, pinning superlatives on him as firm and efficient, empathetic and pious, manly and handsome, insisting he is the sole figure able to lead and feeding jingoism for the military and police. "The popular hero didn't find the masses marching to the ballot boxes to lift him to the palace. The weddings turned to anguish," prominent Egyptian columnist Wael Abdel-Fattah wrote in the Lebanese daily Assafir. "The shock here is in the state's need to use its old tools to defend its nominee."

El-Sissi can genuinely claim he comes into office with an impressive tally of votes - his campaign said he won 23.38 million votes. Official results are expected in early June. That's more than the 13 million that Morsi won, and even more than the around 18 million votes that went to Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood and allied parties in the first post-Mubarak parliamentary elections, the Islamists' most resounding electoral showing. But the puncturing of his image is no small blow. It points out a significant pool of public discontent with el-Sissi and will likely encourage the Brotherhood in its protests, hoping more Egyptians will join its ranks if the new president fails to improve their lot. It gives hope to the more secular, pro-democracy revolutionary groups, signaling that Egyptians are as wary of a military man in power as they were of the Islamists.

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Egypt's Sissi Crushes at Polls, Turnout Questioned
May 29, 2014 — Egyptian officials say preliminary results give former Egyptian army chief Abdel Fattah el-Sissi a sweeping victory in his presidential bid against Hamdeen Sabahi. But, the vote has raised many questions about a Sissi presidency.
Small crowds Thursday celebrated the early results of Egypt’s presidential election, which give former army chief Abdel Fattah el-Sissi a crushing lead over his sole competitor. Given a crackdown on opposition forces, few questioned an early tally showing Sissi with more than 90 percent of the vote. How many people voted is another matter. Initial turnout was so low the government added an extra day of voting and threatened non-voters with fines. Officials said participation jumped Wednesday, although many polls that third day were empty.

Despite cries of foul play, and little independent monitoring of the vote count, Sissi supporters came to his defense. “Thank God these elections were legitimate," said Cairo voter Mohamed Mahmoud. "No oil or sugar were given out. No money was given out. No forging of the ballots occurred. These elections are legitimate.” Sissi had gained support from many weary of three years of post-revolution upheaval. Among those yearning for some sense of calm are many of Egypt’s minority Christians, who had feared the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. Sissi helped depose its member, President Mohammed Morsi, last year. “We always pray for that. The church always prays for the security and the stability of the country,” said Sister Myriam, a Roman Catholic nun.

But Sissi has not only his political nemesis, the Brotherhood, to worry about.
Egypt’s economy is in tatters. Patience is wearing thin. And harder times with potential subsidy cuts loom. Even supporters voice concern about the future. “This difficult phase is Sissi's phase," said Cairo resident, Mohshen Atteya. "It is a building-Egypt phase. A social justice phase. A phase where we have to look at the poor and misfortunate of Egypt, the people who live in graveyards. Sissi has to care for the impoverished of Egypt." But with new doubts about the breadth of Sissi’s support, and a possible backlash about the vote count, Egypt’s next president may face great challenges in rallying Egyptians for the sacrifices he says lie ahead. Final results are expected early next week.

Egypt's Sissi Crushes at Polls, Turnout Questioned
 
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Kinda lop-sided victory...
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Egypt's Sissi Wins 97 Percent; Iran Invited to His Inauguration
June 03, 2014 — Former Egyptian army chief Abdel Fattah el-Sissi secured a landslide victory in the country's presidential vote last week, the election commission confirmed on Tuesday.
Egypt's election commission says Tuesday that Sissi took nearly 97 percent of the vote in last week's race. Turnout was about 47 percent of Egypt's 54 million voters, the commission said - less than the 40 million votes, or 80 percent of the electorate, that Sissi had called for. Meanwhile, Egypt has invited Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to the inauguration ceremony of newly elected Sissi, a trip that would make him only the second Iranian leader to visit Egypt since the countries severed ties in 1980.

Sissi, the former army chief who last year toppled Egypt's first freely elected leader, the Islamist Mohamed Morsi, is expected to be sworn in as president later this week after official results showed he won a landslide victory in last month's election. Iran welcomed the 2011 uprising that led to the downfall of autocratic President Hosni Mubarak, and considered it an "Islamic awakening" given that it was followed by Islamist rule. When the army ousted Morsi from power in July last year, Tehran criticized the move, drawing a hostile response from Cairo. "He was invited in both capacities as president of Iran and president of the Non-Aligned Movement," Egypt's presidential spokesman Ehab Badawi told Reuters, but said that so far there had been no response.

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Egypt’s military chief Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi.

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said that Egypt's representative in Tehran met with Rouhani's chief of staff, Mohammad Nahavandian, and handed him the official invitation from interim President Adly Mansour. Under Morsi, ties between the two countries seemed to improve, with the then Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad becoming the first Iranian leader to visit Egypt in more than three decades. He called for a strategic alliance with Egypt and offered Cairo a loan to ease a deepening economic crisis.

Rouhani, a relative moderate who took power in 2013, has pledged to improve relations with Tehran's regional neighbors. Iran and Egypt cut formal diplomatic relations in 1980 after Tehran was angered by Egypt's admission of the deposed Shah of Iran and Egypt's recognition of Israel. One persistent obstacle to improving relations has been Tehran naming a street after the Egyptian Islamist militant who led the 1981 assassination of President Anwar Sadat after he signed a peace treaty with Israel.

Egypt's Sissi Wins 97 Percent; Iran Invited to His Inauguration

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Who is Abdel Fatah al-Sisi? – video[/quote]
 

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