Economists Project Trump Will Win Easily in 2020 — And By a Bigger Margin

[g5000]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

 

[g5000]

Hedging:

They point to two key caveats that could hamstring their model’s accuracy this time. It “excludes noneconomic factors about a candidate’s record that are vital in most elections” and “pays no attention to candidates’ attributes such as race, gender or ‘likeability’ — a factor that may be centrally important in 2020.” And a severe recession, “potentially triggered by a combination of rising tariffs, declining profit margins and an adverse financial market shock,” could also turn the projection against Trump’s reelection.

 

[sparky]

People that vote their wallets for any given point in time don't understand economics

~S~

 

[g5000]

People that vote their wallets for any given point in time don't understand economics

~S~

"Are you better off today than you were four years ago?"

"It's the economy, stupid."

 

[Mac1958]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

If we get a good - emphasis on good - China trade deal, that could be enough to goose things again for a while. And we may finally see the low unemployment rate and moderate income increases finally kick in with regards to GDP.

There are some big names who think that we're pretty much at the end of this expansion -- Jamie Dimon comes to mind -- but there are too many variables to make a prediction. Just keep hoping for good stuff.
.

 

[g5000]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

If we get a good - emphasis on good - China trade deal, that could be enough to goose things again for a while. And we may finally see the low unemployment rate and moderate income increases finally kick in with regards to GDP.

There are some big names who think that we're pretty much at the end of this expansion -- Jamie Dimon comes to mind -- but there are too many variables to make a prediction. Just keep hoping for good stuff.
.

Exactly right. I started a topic the other day saying Trump needs to end the trade war. He is sabotaging himself. His idiotic trade war is driving us right into a recession.

He needs to end it and then we will see the economy resume its upward climb.

He's an idiot if he persists in this moronic tariff war.

 

[Siete]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

If we get a good - emphasis on good - China trade deal, that could be enough to goose things again for a while. And we may finally see the low unemployment rate and moderate income increases finally kick in with regards to GDP.

There are some big names who think that we're pretty much at the end of this expansion -- Jamie Dimon comes to mind -- but there are too many variables to make a prediction. Just keep hoping for good stuff.
.

Exactly right. I started a topic the other day saying Trump needs to end the trade war. He is sabotaging himself. His idiotic trade war is driving us right into a recession.

He needs to end it and then we will see the economy resume its upward climb.

He's an idiot if he persists in this moronic tariff war.

everyone knows Trump loves being the biggest idiot on the planet - persist he will.

 

[Augustine_]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

Virginia flipping red? That alone dismantles the guy's reasoning.

 

[kyzr]

The economist's poll is based on prosperity. The kitchen table metrics voters often use to re-elect a president if times are good, or to put in a new president if things are not good. What the poll doesn't do is look at both candidates running and seeing what policies they are running on. If Warren is the democrat's nominee, her socialist agenda and the following policies will make voters stay with Trump:
1. Open borders, tear down the southern border fence/wall
2. Sanctuary cities & states
3. Free college
4. Single Payer Healthcare, aka rationed healthcare, "Medicare for all"
5. Eliminate ICE and DHS, turn the US into the EU, with muslim "no go zones"
6. Promote Globalism, whatever Wall Street wants Wall Street gets, see K-Street Cash
7. Paris Climate Change Treaty where the US pays $trillions to poor countries
8. Stupid trade agreements, e.g tax breaks to move factories overseas
9. Let China run roughshod over the US for trade and intellectual property
10. Let NK develop nukes and ICBM delivery systems, have no one capable of dealing with NK
11. Raise taxes to 70% on the wealthy, especially on corporations so they relocate overseas
12. Opioid problem running rampant across the US
13. Gangs like MS-13 running rampant across the US
14. No steel or mining industries due to foreign "dumping" of subsidized products
15. No new pipelines
16. No offshore drilling
17. The dems' "Central Committee" appoints super-delegates to subvert real voters in primaries
18. Pack the US Supreme Court to promote liberal policies
19. Impeach anyone they deem not liberal enough, like Kavanaugh
20. Use the Federal Government to punish conservatives, like the IRS and Lois Lerner hounded conservatives
21. Use the Intel community to spy on the opposition party, like Hillary, FusionGPS, and the FBI/DOJ spied on Trump
22. Block voter ID laws to ensure fraud, and promote "vote harvesting" to steal elections
23. Refuse to provide funding for border walls/security, which DHS says is desperately needed.
24. Give $Trillions to Mexico and Central America for a Marshal Plan, but not help US citizens living in tent cities
25. Impose gun control, outlaw private gun sales, outlaw AR style rifles, restrict sales of bullets, etc.
26. "Green New Deal" Impose a "carbon tax" to punish anyone who works, heats their home, flies, or has a car
27. Anti-business democrat socialists caused Amazon to flee NYC taking 25,000 good paying jobs to VA
28. REPARATIONS to blacks to pay for slavery, $trillions owed by US voters
29. Excuse the murder of unwanted newborns, i.e. "infanticide"
30. Change the Electoral College to popular vote
31. All prisoners get to vote, even the Boston Marathon Bomber, so says Bernie
32. LGBTQ rights, trannys in military
33. Hunt down suspected white supremacists, increase domestic surveillance
34. Add Senators and congressmen for DC and Puerto Rico
35. Be sure that any "red flag" laws exclude gang members (only get those rural guns)
36. AOC wants full welfare for illegal immigrants

In addition, Liz won't say that taxes will go up. Actually there isn't enough money in the US to pay for her free healthcare, aka "Medicare for All".

 

[Mac1958]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

If we get a good - emphasis on good - China trade deal, that could be enough to goose things again for a while. And we may finally see the low unemployment rate and moderate income increases finally kick in with regards to GDP.

There are some big names who think that we're pretty much at the end of this expansion -- Jamie Dimon comes to mind -- but there are too many variables to make a prediction. Just keep hoping for good stuff.
.

Exactly right. I started a topic the other day saying Trump needs to end the trade war. He is sabotaging himself. His idiotic trade war is driving us right into a recession.

He needs to end it and then we will see the economy resume its upward climb.

He's an idiot if he persists in this moronic tariff war.

There's another wrinkle to this, of course: The quality of a trade deal. The announcement by both countries of a deal will send markets flying, but then people will dig in to the actual deal and its elements to see what's actually in them.

The deal may be great, here's hoping; or it may be good enough; or Trump may agree to a pile of shit because he figures it will help him for 2020, and he knows that all his sycophants will swear that it's the greatest thing ever.

So I guess we'll see.
.

 

[sparky]

"It's the economy, stupid."

More , it's the 'stupids' sold on voodoo economics

~S~

 

[wamose]

It's unbelievable that anyone would even question this. Trump is a proven winner running against an assortment of cons and nincompoops. No contest.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I wonder if these economists made any predictions for the 2018 midterms?

 

[MAGAman]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2019/10/17/the-finance-202-economists-project-trump-will-win-easily-in-2020-and-by-a-bigger-margin/

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper outlining the findings, tells CNBC’s Brian Schwartz. “It’s about turnout.”


Mark Zandi. He's the guy at Moody's who famously failed to see the Great Recession and the collapse of the subprime bubble.



But assuming average Democratic turnout, the firm projects the 2020 map will look like this:

Democrats know it.

Hence the panic.

 

[MAGAman]

I wonder if these economists made any predictions for the 2018 midterms?

Midterms have a different dynamic. Still The last midterm was much better than the beat downs Obama or Clinton suffered.