Drudge: ZOGBY SUNDAY: Single day of polling, 49% to 46% in favor of Obama

[The Paperboy]

Link here

 

[DavidS]

Polls are done over 3-days, not single days.

McCain is energizing his base. Which is great. His Joe the Plumber schtick is about the 18,000th invention McCain has made of himself. It's old. It's boring.

 

[Caligirl]

Tracking poll at RCP =- Obama has his biggest lead yet in the averaged polls, and McCain is sinking fast. See the graph here:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

 

[DavidS]

Paperboy, why are you posting Zogby now? You haven't posted him in a week!

 

[The Paperboy]

Polls are done over 3-days, not single days.

McCain is energizing his base. Which is great. His Joe the Plumber schtick is about the 18,000th invention McCain has made of himself. It's old. It's boring.

Is that why they do instant polls after the debates?

 

[The Paperboy]

Paperboy, why are you posting Zogby now? You haven't posted him in a week!

Didn't want to embarrass Zogby with his incorrect models.

 

[DavidS]

Didn't want to embarrass Zogby with his incorrect models.

So if Zogby's models are incorrect, why are you posting him now?

 

[The Paperboy]

So if Zogby's models are incorrect, why are you posting him now?

Looks like he may have corrected his models.

Anyway David, with all due respect no reason to beat me up over this, I'm just linking to stories here.

 

[DavidS]

Looks like he may have corrected his models.

Anyway David, with all due respect no reason to beat me up over this, I'm just linking to stories here.

When I see you posting polls that show Obama in double digit lead, I'll relax.

 

[The Paperboy]

When I see you posting polls that show Obama in double digit lead, I'll relax.

I'm sure you'll beat me to it!

 

[The Paperboy]

Take this for what it's worth:

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.

Link here

 

[DavidS]

I'm sure you'll beat me to it!

Nope. I'll wait at least 30 minutes after a new poll is released.

I highly doubt, though, that there will be any polls that show Obama in double digit leads this week. This is either going to be 2-4 point race or Obama will blow McCain out of the water and carry 30 states including Georgia, North Dakotah, Indiana and Montanna. I'm talking about landslide of epic proportions. I think the 2-4 point race is more likely.

 

[DavidS]

Take this for what it's worth:

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.

Link here

We'll find out in 9 days.

 

[The Paperboy]

Nope. I'll wait at least 30 minutes after a new poll is released.

I highly doubt, though, that there will be any polls that show Obama in double digit leads this week. This is either going to be 2-4 point race or Obama will blow McCain out of the water and carry 30 states including Georgia, North Dakotah, Indiana and Montanna. I'm talking about landslide of epic proportions. I think the 2-4 point race is more likely.

Agreed. And of course we don't know what if any October surprise is coming.