do you think that the global economy is going to crash in the near future?

[Donald Polish]

Please, do not blame me at being too pessimistic!! After continuous research on the net I am becoming more paranoid that there are going to be major social and economical problems in the very near future. The US economy is hanging by a limb and once our economy crashes the world will soon follow. After watching this I have become a believer that there will be mass unemployment (predictions up to 75%) in the next 30 years. How will our existence continue with that is true?

 

[peach174]

Yes it will and that is when you will see the one world government take over.

 

[HenryBHough]

If you're defining "near" as sometime in the next 30 years then YES. However not just once. At least three more bust/boom cycles growing more frequent as the dumbing-down of education gathers steam and people are less able to recognize they're being screwed.

 

[Moonglow]

If you're defining "near" as sometime in the next 30 years then YES. However not just once. At least three more bust/boom cycles growing more frequent as the dumbing-down of education gathers steam and people are less able to recognize they're being screwed.

Just try to get even every chance you get....

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Please, do not blame me at being too pessimistic!! After continuous research on the net I am becoming more paranoid that there are going to be major social and economical problems in the very near future. The US economy is hanging by a limb and once our economy crashes the world will soon follow. After watching this I have become a believer that there will be mass unemployment (predictions up to 75%) in the next 30 years. How will our existence continue with that is true?

Of course one must be an liberal idiot to say our economy is hanging by a limp and not have any evidence to show. Bernanke was a master at saving the world as compared to Benjamin Strong in the Depression so the future looks very very good.

 

[oldfart]

Fiedler's Four Rules of Forecasting:
1. It is very difficult to predict, especially the future.
2. Every time you make a prediction, you know you are wrong, but don't know in which direction.
3. He who lives by the crystal ball learns to eat ground glass.
4. If you ever hit it on the nose; don't let them ever forget!

Thirty years is awfully far out. Five years is long term and the only places that go substantially beyond that are CBO budget forecasts (10 years), and forecasts involving demographics.

With Fiedler and the above caveat in mind, here is my response.

The chance of a downturn that would reduce the employment-to-working age population ratio more than 20% is remote for any time scale. The chance of a downturn in the next five years that would reduce this ratio 5% (which is a pretty massive downturn) is maybe 40%. This would put the U-3 unemployment rate at somewhere near 12%.

The longer the time frame, the more probable any unlikely event is to occur. In thirty years I will be pushing the Keynesian long run.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Fiedler's Four Rules of Forecasting:
1. It is very difficult to predict, especially the future.
2. Every time you make a prediction, you know you are wrong, but don't know in which direction.
3. He who lives by the crystal ball learns to eat ground glass.
4. If you ever hit it on the nose; don't let them ever forget!

Thirty years is awfully far out. Five years is long term and the only places that go substantially beyond that are CBO budget forecasts (10 years), and forecasts involving demographics.

With Fiedler and the above caveat in mind, here is my response.

The chance of a downturn that would reduce the employment-to-working age population ratio more than 20% is remote for any time scale. The chance of a downturn in the next five years that would reduce this ratio 5% (which is a pretty massive downturn) is maybe 40%. This would put the U-3 unemployment rate at somewhere near 12%.

The longer the time frame, the more probable any unlikely event is to occur. In thirty years I will be pushing the Keynesian long run.

the real question is, did Bernanke prove that our understanding of monetary policy is now so good that we'll never have another depression?

 

[bripat9643]

MULTIPLE TIMES

 

[ralfy]

Consider the study mentioned here, which compares forecasts made decades ago and historical data:

Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we re nearing collapse Cathy Alexander and Graham Turner Comment is free The Guardian

 

[quorthon]