COVID-19: Facts vs. Panic

[Lesh]

15% of those "closed cases" are DEAD

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Here is some encouraging information that is just a few hours old regarding the corona virus:

-- 96% of the active COVID-19 cases are mild.

-- 85% of the closed COVID-19 cases were mild. (In this case, "closed" means recovered or discharged.)

As many scientists have pointed out, the very high rate of mild symptoms among infected persons strongly suggests that the current death rates, which range between 0.0% and 8.0% for the vast majority of people, are actually substantially lower, since many people probably have had the virus but did not know it and thus have not been included in the case numbers. And keep in mind that in many nations, the overall death rate is well below 2.0%.

Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 420,734 Cases and 18,800 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

The flip side of this is that we do not know how many have died from it without ever being tested. There was a local doctor last week that claimed she had two patients die with "COVID like symptoms" before they could get tested.

 

[eagle1462010]

Here is some encouraging information that is just a few hours old regarding the corona virus:

-- 96% of the active COVID-19 cases are mild.

-- 85% of the closed COVID-19 cases were mild. (In this case, "closed" means recovered or discharged.)

As many scientists have pointed out, the very high rate of mild symptoms among infected persons strongly suggests that the current death rates, which range between 0.0% and 8.0% for the vast majority of people, are actually substantially lower, since many people probably have had the virus but did not know it and thus have not been included in the case numbers. And keep in mind that in many nations, the overall death rate is well below 2.0%.

Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 420,734 Cases and 18,800 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

As REAL STATISTICS come in the KNOWNS WILL BE CLEARER for a MORE RATIONAL ESTIMATE of the real rates of infection and deaths.

Even in the end of this all.........maybe a year down the road..........the REAL STATS of this will be questioned by different health agencies of WHAT WAS THE REAL DATA.....That is why in WIKi LINKS and the like of older viruses that you see IT IS ESTIMATED that BETWEEN x and y number of people died related to the virus...........

Estimated ........because they really don't know so they just report what's out there.

 

[eagle1462010]

15% of those "closed cases" are DEAD

45% to 50% of the originally estimated 5% total.........DIE..............

If you are old.......and in Serious condition early on in this virus...........You ARE DEAD......most likely........

Just as dead as the 10's of thousands who die from the Flu every year......

As treatments get better.........the survival rate will get better..............If you have serious issues already........then this virus can and if you get it.........WILL KILL YOU.

 

[eagle1462010]

Here is some encouraging information that is just a few hours old regarding the corona virus:

-- 96% of the active COVID-19 cases are mild.

-- 85% of the closed COVID-19 cases were mild. (In this case, "closed" means recovered or discharged.)

As many scientists have pointed out, the very high rate of mild symptoms among infected persons strongly suggests that the current death rates, which range between 0.0% and 8.0% for the vast majority of people, are actually substantially lower, since many people probably have had the virus but did not know it and thus have not been included in the case numbers. And keep in mind that in many nations, the overall death rate is well below 2.0%.

Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 420,734 Cases and 18,800 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

The flip side of this is that we do not know how many have died from it without ever being tested. There was a local doctor last week that claimed she had two patients die with "COVID like symptoms" before they could get tested.

And in Italy a Doctor for their disease control said they had many cases of FLU related symptoms early on that HE KNEW LATER must have had Corona Virus.

The Statistics of these things are ALWAYS all over the place.

 

[mikegriffith1]

15% of those "closed cases" are DEAD.

Yes, and the overall global death rate reminds below 5%, and the majority of industrialized nations have a death rate that's well below 2%. And I notice you ignored the fact that experts are advising that the high rate of mild corona cases strongly suggests that the death rates are actually quite a bit lower because many people have had the virus but did not know it and thus were not counted.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Here is another good article from Reason magazine on the evidence that the actual death rates are much lower than the current--and relatively low--death rates:

Two Reasons the Worst-Case Scenarios for COVID-19 Seem Unrealistic

One of the scarier aspects of COVID-19 is that many people who are infected don't know they are carrying the...

reason.com

 

[mikegriffith1]

Let's compare our ongoing COVID-19 outbreak with the 2009-2010 swine flu (H1N1) pandemic. In one year's time (spring 2009 to spring 2010), the swine flu infected at least 1.1 billion people and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the CDC. Four months into the corona virus, as of today, we've had about 435,000 cases and about 19,000 deaths. The swine flu averaged 90 million cases per month, whereas COVID-19 is averaging 109,000 per month.

Even if we assume that corona cases have been under-reported by 300%, that would give us 1.74 million cases in four months. The swine flu averaged 90 million cases per month--yes, 90 million per month (at least 1.1 billion in 12 months). Even assuming that COVID-19 cases have been under-reported by 300%, that would equal 435,000 cases per month.

As for deaths, if we take the median of the estimates for H1N1 deaths, we get around 350,000 deaths, or 29,000 deaths per month. The corona virus is averaging 4,750 deaths per month. If we assume that the number of Corona deaths has been under-reported by 100%, that would give us 38,000 deaths, or 9,500 deaths per month--compared to the swine flu's rate of 29,000 deaths per month.

And how did we react to the 2009-2010 swine flu outbreak? Hey? 93% of our schools stayed open. We did not ban large gatherings. We did not shut down half the economy nor put millions of people out of work. Churches kept meeting. We did not impose travel bans.

 

[mikegriffith1]

Let us go even further with inflating the COVID-19 numbers, by assuming a higher percentage of under-reporting, to see how they compare with the numbers from the 2009-2010 swine flu (H1N1) pandemic. As of the time I am writing this post this morning, there have been 478,444 corona virus cases worldwide. If we assume that corona virus cases have been under-reported by a staggering 600%, that would give us just under 2.88 million cases in four months (we are at least four months into the COVID-19 outbreak). By comparison, the swine flu averaged 90 million cases per month, or 360 million cases every four months.

So how drastically would COVID-19 cases have to be under-reported to equal the swine flu's 360 million cases in four months? Try 7,528%. And how drastically would COVID-19 cases have to increase over the next 8 months to match the swine flu case number of 1.1 billion? 230,000%.

How about the number of deaths from the corona virus vs. the swine flu? If we take the median of the estimates for H1N1 deaths, we get around 350,000 deaths, or 29,000 deaths per month. As of the time I am writing this, there have been 21,524 COVID-19 deaths, which equals an average of 5,381 deaths per month, compared to the swine flu's 29,000 deaths per month. And remember we are taking the median (or middle) of the estimates for swine flu deaths, which ranged from 151,700 to 575,400.

What if COVID-19 deaths continue to increase at the rate we have seen over the last week? This is unlikely, since the COVID-19 death rate has already begun to decline in some nations and localities, even in places where some/all schools and universities have stayed open. But, let us assume the recent death-rate increase continues. As of 19 March, one week ago, there had been 9,840 COVID-19 deaths. As mentioned, as of the time I am writing this, there have been 21,524 COVID-19 deaths, an increase of 11,684 deaths in one week, or an increase of 1,669 deaths per day, which equals 50,070 deaths per month. If we make the improbable assumption that the number of corona virus deaths will continue to increase at this rate for the next 8 months--50,070 deaths per month for the next 8 months--that would amount to 400,560 additional deaths in 8 months, for a 12-month total of 422,084 deaths worldwide, whereas the 2009-2019 swine flu pandemic is estimated to have caused as many as 575,400 deaths in 12 months (April 2009 to April 2010).

If we assume that 8 months from now COVID-19 will have caused 422,084 deaths, what percentage would that be of the world's population? 0.00543%, or a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 1% of the world's population.

Yes, of course we don't want anyone to die from any illness, but we must put this matter in proper perspective. 422,084 deaths is a lot of deaths, but at least 1.2 million people die in traffic accidents each year worldwide. About 1.4 to 1.6 million die from diabetes each year worldwide. At least 8 million people per year die from heart disease worldwide. Nearly 6 million die from strokes each year worldwide. The common flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people each year worldwide, depending on the severity of the flu season that year, yet we don't close our schools, ban large gatherings, or put millions of people out of work each flu season.

And, again, how did we react during the 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic? Most of our schools (93%) remained open. We did not ban large gatherings. No state ordered its citizens to stay home. We did not shut down half of our economy and put millions of people out of work.

 

[mikegriffith1]

In terms of the virus's contraction rate, consider that even in the confined environment of the cruise ship Diamond Princess, well below 50% of the 3,711 passengers on the ship caught the virus; and of the 712 people who caught the virus, only 8 died from it. 8 deaths out of 712 infected passengers is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate.

The key point, though, is the relatively low contraction rate: 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of a cruise ship. That means that only 19.2% of the passengers who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.