Coronavirus Simulator - Understanding The Various Strategies

[SweetSue92]

Models ARE NOT facts... They depend on the quality of data and statistical VALIDITY of the numbers you put into them.. It will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at "number of infections" becomes strong enough to model...

Where did you get the idea it will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at number of infections becomes strong enough to model?

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

"One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause.

"The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

"The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population.

"Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios."

"That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said.

"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

IF 214 MILLION people are infected, you KNOW they are not even all going to know they are ill, let alone even be ill enough to visit a dr. C'mon this not the Bubonic Plague, yet here we are crashing our economy over it.

 

[georgephillip]

Stuart Varney just said, and I quote directly, "the economy is collapsing"

77 people in my county with Coronavirus. But five people THAT I KNOW who lost their jobs. Already. Within days.

We're idiots. That's it. Just idiots.

We are even bigger idiots if we tolerate another round of socialism for the rich. It's long past time to put employee interests over shareholder interests.

Fed Announces Program for Wall Street Banks to Pledge Plunging Stocks to Get Trillions in Loans at ¼ Percent Interest

"The Federal Reserve Board of Governors announced at 6 P.M. last evening that it is following the direction of Steve Mnuchin, the former foreclosure king who now serves as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and authorizing the reinstatement of a hideously operated, multi-trillion dollar bailout program for Wall Street’s trading houses known as the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).

"Veterans on Wall Street think of it as the cash-for-trash facility, where Wall Street’s toxic waste from a decade of irresponsible trading and lending, will be purged from the balance sheets of the Wall Street firms and handed over to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve – just as it was during the last financial crisis on Wall Street."

 

[georgephillip]

IF 214 MILLION people are infected, you KNOW they are not even all going to know they are ill, let alone even be ill enough to visit a dr. C'mon this not the Bubonic Plague, yet here we are crashing our economy over it.

Our capitalist economy?
Maybe this is too good of a crisis to let go to waste?
It's time to consider "radical" alternatives like the guaranteed annual wage that prioritize productive workers over parasitic shareholders.

 

[georgephillip]

An interesting video on exponential growth rates and inflection point.

"When no one is worried; that is when you should worry."

 

[flacaltenn]

Not true.. The infection spread in America is TOO small to get accurate numbers at the moment.. Even the CDC won't venture a guess at the "number of infections".. Only the amount of reported cases... Anything else right is sheer speculation.. Including the large numbers that some irresponsible people have been leaking to the media.

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Europe is turning into a disaster.

Why isnt global data sufficient, Flacaltenn?

Because of many reasons...

1) Early cases back in Dec and Jan MAY have been completely missed.. Because the vast majority of outcomes were minor..

2) The total "cases" include folks that are SUSPECTED and waiting for tests to come back.. That number when resolved is only about 3 to 10% of the total total tests.. And with testing EXPANDING -- you're carrying an INCREASING load of "suspected cases" over any 2 or 4 day period...

I have no problem really with actual cases.. Will derate that for the "suspected cases" that the number includes GOING UP as testing TESTING ramps up...

Just THAT effect can explain the rapid "doubling" in the past week or so... BECAUSE -- "the numbers in the USA are so low:" right now...

And your charts are WORLD numbers.. Depends on the timeliness and depth of "mitigation efforts" in all those countries... ANY graph that starts at zero and is scaled vertically to fit --- is scary looking...

 

[flacaltenn]

Models ARE NOT facts... They depend on the quality of data and statistical VALIDITY of the numbers you put into them.. It will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at "number of infections" becomes strong enough to model...

Where did you get the idea it will be several more weeks before an accurate guess at number of infections becomes strong enough to model?

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

"One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause.

"The assumptions, reviewed by The New York Times, were shared with about 50 expert teams to model how the virus could tear through the population — and what might stop it.

"The C.D.C.’s scenarios were depicted in terms of percentages of the population.

"Translated into absolute numbers by independent experts using simple models of how viruses spread, the worst-case figures would be staggering if no actions were taken to slow transmission.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios."

"That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said.

"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

When someone runs scenarios like that -- it's got the same issues as a model... Garbage in Garbage out.. Even the SEVERITY Of infection is NOT known.. It's a guess at how CONTAGIOUS this is compared to other flus right now...

And if you take the LOW range estimate you'll see that 160Mill/200000 is 0.0125% MORTALITY rate.. If you take the HIGH end number it becomes 0.08%..

That's a SEVEN TO ONE GUESS at the mortality rate...

Same guesses applied to the CONTAGION rate...

It's guessing -- with a model.... NOT a statement that the numbers are GOOD ENOUGH to be panicking the public with these "educated guesses" yet...

 

[flacaltenn]

It's irresponsible to be passing those off to the public.. Just like it's irresponsible to call something "settled science" before it's even PEER REVIEWED or combined with OTHER studies...

Sorry man -- I love science too much to be panicked by folks in labcoats that want a "moment of fame"....

 

[georgephillip]

It's guessing -- with a model.... NOT a statement that the numbers are GOOD ENOUGH to be panicking the public with these "educated guesses" yet...

Do you believe advising or requiring people to avoid congregating in groups of ten or more qualifies as "panicking the public"?

 

[flacaltenn]

It's guessing -- with a model.... NOT a statement that the numbers are GOOD ENOUGH to be panicking the public with these "educated guesses" yet...

Do you believe advising or requiring people to avoid congregating in groups of ten or more qualifies as "panicking the public"?

No.. That's common sense... But just IGNORING the FACT that an economy this size does NOT HAVE a tested "on/off" switch is a doomsday scenario when you push that to excess... NO ONE --- and I mean NO ONE actually knows what happens if you start panicking and SHUT DOWN an economy this size....

I'm MORE concerned about suffering from that than I am about the virus...

 

[JimBowie1958]

It's guessing -- with a model.... NOT a statement that the numbers are GOOD ENOUGH to be panicking the public with these "educated guesses" yet...

Well Europe is doing recon in force to explore the lethality of COVID19 for us.

I guess they are useful for something after all.

 

[JimBowie1958]

2) The total "cases" include folks that are SUSPECTED and waiting for tests to come back.. That number when resolved is only about 3 to 10% of the total total tests.. And with testing EXPANDING -- you're carrying an INCREASING load of "suspected cases" over any 2 or 4 day period...
I have no problem really with actual cases.. Will derate that for the "suspected cases" that the number includes GOING UP as testing TESTING ramps up...
Just THAT effect can explain the rapid "doubling" in the past week or so... BECAUSE -- "the numbers in the USA are so low:" right now...

The total number of cases have doubled since a week ago.
The total number of ACTIVE cases have tripled since a week ago. Active cases are cases that require medical treatment.
The total number of deaths have doubled since a week ago.

This pandemic's growth is exponential, no matter how you choose to graph it.

 

[JimBowie1958]

But just IGNORING the FACT that an economy this size does NOT HAVE a tested "on/off" switch is a doomsday scenario when you push that to excess... NO ONE --- and I mean NO ONE actually knows what happens if you start panicking and SHUT DOWN an economy this size....
I'm MORE concerned about suffering from that than I am about the virus...

When this is over, probably by late July, the economy will spring back to life.

Economy is in the nature of human existence. We have bartered and traveled long distance to trade for thousands if not millions of years.

That wont stop because of three months of quarantine.

 

[MindWars]

Things that make you say hmmm. But still this is all to enslave. us don't miss the big picture. Innstead of towers falling you know how you dip shiit don't believe in GOD cause yah can't see it well dumb asses this is 911 and you can't see it because the hidden in plain view.

UNLESS we make them turn around we are totally screwed.

 

[flacaltenn]

2) The total "cases" include folks that are SUSPECTED and waiting for tests to come back.. That number when resolved is only about 3 to 10% of the total total tests.. And with testing EXPANDING -- you're carrying an INCREASING load of "suspected cases" over any 2 or 4 day period...
I have no problem really with actual cases.. Will derate that for the "suspected cases" that the number includes GOING UP as testing TESTING ramps up...
Just THAT effect can explain the rapid "doubling" in the past week or so... BECAUSE -- "the numbers in the USA are so low:" right now...

The total number of cases have doubled since a week ago.
The total number of ACTIVE cases have tripled since a week ago. Active cases are cases that require medical treatment.
The total number of deaths have doubled since a week ago.

This pandemic's growth is exponential, no matter how you choose to graph it.

View attachment 313449

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From what I've heard, the epidemiology folks consider a doubling of active cases over 2 or 3 days to be a red alert.. The numbers are not solid enough YET -- but a WEEK for a doubling sounds mild compared to what I've heard..

Part of that is --- we have not had a MAJOR CITY hit hard yet... So -- that's gonna change the knowledge about "transmission" and lethality..

 

[flacaltenn]

When this is over, probably by late July, the economy will spring back to life.

Maybe not.. This is another case where modeling might not help because we've never frozen the economy this deep... There will be MOUNTAINS of debt and actual BIBLICAL losses to sort out as calm is restored.. Couldn't even tell you whether to expect hyper-inflation or hyper depression... THere is NO HISTORY of doing this.. Not even post 9-11 when authorities were URGING you to go shopping..

Do you know of any instance in the last century where one of the top 3 or 4 world economies shut itself down almost completely for a month or more??? There are none.. We're ploughing new ground here..

 

[sparky]

An effective treatment for #Coronavirus #COVID-19 has been found in a common anti-malarial drug




cheers!


~S~

 

[MindWars]

The strategy is to shut your pathetic asses down and they will and they are IDIOTS!!

all u gotta do is look at the headlines morons..

 

[protectionist]

A lot of stuff circulating on the internet right now about the various methods of potential action being taken and considered. Social distancing, shelter in place, total lockdown etc..

This article, which includes some simulators on various methods, makes some sense to me.

"Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

Make of it what you will. Thought I would post it, as it helped me to compare some of the various solutions based on a model of the spread of this thing, which seems to be a primary concern at the moment.

According to your link, "If the number of cases were to continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May."

Does that imply two to three million Covid-19 deaths in the US by Mother's Day?

would you like to provide those calculations and we can have a look?

would you like to provide those calculations and we can have a look?

Here's the link I was quoting.
Strangely enough, the Washington Post is making its coverage of Coronavirus free.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

I wouldn't read that bs liberal rag, if they paid ME.

 

[jc456]

2) The total "cases" include folks that are SUSPECTED and waiting for tests to come back.. That number when resolved is only about 3 to 10% of the total total tests.. And with testing EXPANDING -- you're carrying an INCREASING load of "suspected cases" over any 2 or 4 day period...
I have no problem really with actual cases.. Will derate that for the "suspected cases" that the number includes GOING UP as testing TESTING ramps up...
Just THAT effect can explain the rapid "doubling" in the past week or so... BECAUSE -- "the numbers in the USA are so low:" right now...

The total number of cases have doubled since a week ago.
The total number of ACTIVE cases have tripled since a week ago. Active cases are cases that require medical treatment.
The total number of deaths have doubled since a week ago.

This pandemic's growth is exponential, no matter how you choose to graph it.

View attachment 313449

View attachment 313451

more tests were given because more kits were made available, it would be expected that cases would go way up as the number of tests are given. that's just a statistical piece of data, it doesn't mean it got worse at all. nope. no matter how many want to make that statement. Nope. If that were actually a fact, then self isolating is a failure. Nothing would stop it. And that's what you're saying. so be quiet

 

[1Badnana65]

"Flattening the curve" will not stop the virus from spreading; it will not eradicate the virus. Here in CA, it is more likely than not that nearly the entire population will be exposed to and/or contract the virus within the next 12 months. That's a fact! We are trying to "slow" the spread in an effort to keep our hospitals from becoming completely irrelevant and useless. People will die, who would otherwise survive, if we don't do everything possible to effectively decrease and manage the deluge of critically ill likely to descend on our health care providers this week.

The Federal response to this crisis has been pathetic and terrifying. Donald Trump lives on a different planet than the rest of us. He is completely incapable of distinguishing reality from a "reality show." The name of the game right now is "prepare for the worst and hope for the best." Better to err on the side of caution than throw it to the wind. Who do I believe in all of this? Dr. Fauci!

Here in CA we are very fortunate. The coordination among local governments, CA OES, and FEMA is robust and effective. Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But, our emergency service providers are well trained, professional, and experienced. We've come through earthquake, fires, floods, and HIV. We will come through this too! We all need to do our part to ensure as few of our relatives, friends, neighbors, etc. die in the process.