Coffee

[JohnDB]

For those who don't really follow the futures market....

There's a real problem shaking out...
Brazil is the largest producer of Arabica beans...largest producer of coffee period.
Vietnam produces most of the Robusta coffee....others include central America, asia and Africa and even some of the islands produce some coffee....

Now between the political crisis and riots in Columbia and the horrible weather of drought and freezing temperatures in Brazil....and the breakdown of society in Africa....and the lack of shipping containers for Asian coffee....for the first time there's going to be a shortage instead of a surplus. Usually coffee is an exercise in the Forex trading... currencies against the Dollar or BP Stirling.

Not now...

Might want to fill the cupboard and buy some futures. Just saying....and the only ETF/ETN covering it is JO....

Take a look

 

[candycorn]

 

[JohnDB]

Speaking of coffee in Brazil...
I've never had coffee that was ever too strong until I went to Brazil...
Now they drink it in shot glasses...and I drank it by the cup...but I had to add a LOT of milk to mine...lol....it was great stuff.

 

[MarathonMike]

Every time I try to invest in futures I get my butt kicked. Interesting info about the coffee tho!

 

[JohnDB]

Every time I try to invest in futures I get my butt kicked. Interesting info about the coffee tho!

Futures are difficult...
Between keeping an eye on the weather and the Forex it's not exactly easy. Then keeping an eye on the traders is something else too.

Understanding futures prices (especially in the softs and grain markets) is especially difficult. There's usually a huge amount of margins allowed on futures....they are similar to options in that respect. So small amounts of money can make a lot of money in a short amount of time.

With the latest unexpected frost in Brazil it is going to create a real shortage. Those cherries have been having a very difficult year. There was another one earlier in the year about a month ago. Then they got a downpour...then more drought. It's been a wicked tough year in Minas Geras.

Then all the other coffee producing countries have had issues as well...from Africa to Vietnam to Columbia.

I've stocked up on supplies...the USA inventories are very low. It's not going to be long before some areas experience outages at this rate. Especially if restaurants start opening and hotels start getting booked.

 

[JohnDB]

Wild Weather in Biggest Coffee Exporter Sparks Price Surge

The world’s biggest coffee supplier is facing some of the coldest weather in more than 25 years, dimming hopes for the harvest and threatening to raise prices for the popular beverage.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[White 6]

Speaking of coffee in Brazil...
I've never had coffee that was ever too strong until I went to Brazil...
Now they drink it in shot glasses...and I drank it by the cup...but I had to add a LOT of milk to mine...lol....it was great stuff.

I got some in Belgium, that after I tasted it, was surprise it didn't eat the finish of the spoon.
As for Brazil, it sounds like Juan Valdez just wants more money to pack his ass up the mountain.

 

[JohnDB]

I got some in Belgium, that after I tasted it, was surprise it didn't eat the finish of the spoon.

They do much better with Chocolate...the largest chocolate factory (Callebut) is there. Very good chocolate...I use about 20lbs a year of their 811(semi sweet) and about 5 lbs of their white every year making truffles.

They have plenty of beans this year and cocoa has been cheap...but the processing has had many issues this year as well as shipping. So where cocoa beans are cheaper than normal, finished chocolate has been rather pricey and difficult to come by. I hope I can get some this year for my annual truffle making for Christmas. I don't use Hershey's...it just doesn't perform. Toblerone and Godiva are usually just too expensive...I try not to pay over $7.50/lb for the bulk that I usually go through. Those two get to almost $16/lb or more...

 

[White 6]

They do much better with Chocolate...the largest chocolate factory (Callebut) is there. Very good chocolate...I use about 20lbs a year of their 811(semi sweet) and about 5 lbs of their white every year making truffles.

They have plenty of beans this year and cocoa has been cheap...but the processing has had many issues this year as well as shipping. So where cocoa beans are cheaper than normal, finished chocolate has been rather pricey and difficult to come by. I hope I can get some this year for my annual truffle making for Christmas. I don't use Hershey's...it just doesn't perform. Toblerone and Godiva are usually just too expensive...I try not to pay over $7.50/lb for the bulk that I usually go through. Those two get to almost $16/lb or more...

Yah, man! Chocolate! Great chocolate in Belgium, Switzerland and Germany, but I have not been there in many years. In this country I love the whole damn town of Hershey, Pennsylvania from it's kisses light poles to the factory floor. Just to breathe in that city is a pleasure as the aroma of chocolate fills the air. The only chocolate I make is milk chocolate fudge from the recipe on the Hershey's cocoa can.

 

[JohnDB]

Yah, man! Chocolate! Great chocolate in Belgium, Switzerland and Germany, but I have not been there in many years. In this country I love the whole damn town of Hershey, Pennsylvania from it's kisses light poles to the factory floor. Just to breathe in that city is a pleasure as the aroma of chocolate fills the air. The only chocolate I make is milk chocolate fudge from the recipe on the Hershey's cocoa can.

Hershey's chocolate got it's claim to fame from WWII when he sent large chocolate bars with the American soldiers.... chocolate has a two year shelf life and between the fats and sugars lots of energy for our troops needing food. He has since expanded his operation... obviously.
South and Central America is a good supplier of Chocolate beans...but African chocolate is usually a little bit better. (More cocoa butter content)
Ghanna has a bumper crop this year so Cocoa is inexpensive and I really don't recommend playing with those futures... unless you are really a professional.

Coffee however is the number 4 story on Nasdaq news today....and the coffee state Minas Gerais is still freezing and trying to assess the damage. (The pictures of coffee farms isn't good) this is going to affect us well into next year. Especially this winter.

 

[Cellblock2429]

Every time I try to invest in futures I get my butt kicked. Interesting info about the coffee tho!

/——-/ Me too. You’re better off with the ETF JO.

 

[JohnDB]

/——-/ Me too. You’re better off with the ETF JO.

Agreed.
It's down a bit this morning because they invest in Robusta coffee as well...robusta beans are down 2% but Arabicas are up a half point....

They keep acting like the Vietnam coffee exists...but until shipping containers become available it really doesn't. Just like Columbian coffee or sugar from India...it has to actually get to market to exist. And until it does...it really doesn't.

 

[White 6]

Hershey's chocolate got it's claim to fame from WWII when he sent large chocolate bars with the American soldiers.... chocolate has a two year shelf life and between the fats and sugars lots of energy for our troops needing food. He has since expanded his operation... obviously.
South and Central America is a good supplier of Chocolate beans...but African chocolate is usually a little bit better. (More cocoa butter content)
Ghanna has a bumper crop this year so Cocoa is inexpensive and I really don't recommend playing with those futures... unless you are really a professional.

Coffee however is the number 4 story on Nasdaq news today....and the coffee state Minas Gerais is still freezing and trying to assess the damage. (The pictures of coffee farms isn't good) this is going to affect us well into next year. Especially this winter.

You know your chocolate. It is good to talk to an educated person on here, for a change.

 

[JohnDB]

Coffee PM: Arabica Coffee Prices Settle at a 5-1/2 Year High as Frost in Brazil Damages Coffee Crops

Sep arabica coffee (KCU21 ) on Wednesday closed up +9.20 (+5.52%), and Sep ICE Robusta coffee (RMU21 ) closed up +18 (+1.02%). Coffee prices on Wednesday closed sharply higher, with arabica soaring to a 5-1/2 year nearest-futures high. Reports of damage to that Brazil's coffee crop from frost...

www.barchart.com

BTW....JO climbed up 7.7% today.... That was great!

If you didn't get yours today out of this climb it might climb more tomorrow.

 

[Cellblock2429]

/——-/ Me too. You’re better off with the ETF JO.

/——/ Forget JO. The spread between the bid and ask is $21. Outrageous.

 

[JohnDB]

/——/ Forget JO. The spread between the bid and ask is $21. Outrageous.

Do as you please...but I'd begin taking profits today...both Robusta and Arabicas are up today...we are at historical highs. (Unusual for a surplus product)

There is actually plenty of Robusta beans. Arabicas is the one that is in shortage as that's the preferred American coffee. 80% of American adults drink coffee. (The rest of the world drinks tea... coffee is a more recent fad for them)

But still... don't get caught watching the paint dry today. Coffee is volatile.

 

[Likkmee]

Hershey's chocolate got it's claim to fame from WWII when he sent large chocolate bars with the American soldiers.... chocolate has a two year shelf life and between the fats and sugars lots of energy for our troops needing food. He has since expanded his operation... obviously.
South and Central America is a good supplier of Chocolate beans...but African chocolate is usually a little bit better. (More cocoa butter content)
Ghanna has a bumper crop this year so Cocoa is inexpensive and I really don't recommend playing with those futures... unless you are really a professional.

Coffee however is the number 4 story on Nasdaq news today....and the coffee state Minas Gerais is still freezing and trying to assess the damage. (The pictures of coffee farms isn't good) this is going to affect us well into next year. Especially this winter.

Hmmm ?
No problem here

 

[JohnDB]

Hmmm ?
No problem here

Do you live in Minas Gerais?
The pictures I seen of what happened are horrible. The coffee leaves are all dark green from getting frozen overnight.

 

[Likkmee]

Do you live in Minas Gerais?
The pictures I seen of what happened are horrible. The coffee leaves are all dark green from getting frozen overnight.

Nah. Sabalito Costa Rica
Corps/govts destroy Brazil. Here we run corps off and planted 8 million trees in the last decade

 

[JohnDB]

Nah. Sabalito Costa Rica
Corps/govts destroy Brazil. Here we run corps off and planted 8 million trees in the last decade
View attachment 515816

You are thousands of Kilometers North of where the frost happened....as well as several thousand feet lower in elevation.
You are also likely looking at Robusta coffee trees and not Arabicas. (Impossible to tell that far away)

Columbia is the country with the Facist Coffee cartels. It's hard to say who is worse between the drug Lords of the 80's and the Coffee cartels of today. Especially when even UN observers are getting shot in the streets.

Any word yet on the oil pipelines in Panama? I've been keeping an ear out on the subject.