CNN / ORC Poll: Trump Tops in Iowa as Scott Walker Drops

[Derideo_Te]

I still think the Establishment Republicans will find a way to dethrone Trump and Jeb will surface again....just sayin.........

They're trying.

Very trying!

 

[Jackson]

I still think the Establishment Republicans will find a way to dethrone Trump and Jeb will surface again....just sayin.........

Could be. Jeb had better work on his delivery.

 

[Seawytch]

Trump is still the one to beat.

Didn't Paul win in that state all the time? Why one or two states get to set a pace for the rest of the nation is beyond me. Like the elections the primaries should be set on one day nation wide. It's not fair to voters in the last states to essentially be told your vote doesn't matter.

It's called the 1st amendment and the right to free association...also states rights.

Irrelevant to my opinion. And we all know how people like you feel about states rights so stuff it sister

No, actually, you have no idea.

You can whine all you want, but primaries and how they are run are Constitutional.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Trump is still the one to beat.

Didn't Paul win in that state all the time? Why one or two states get to set a pace for the rest of the nation is beyond me. Like the elections the primaries should be set on one day nation wide. It's not fair to voters in the last states to essentially be told your vote doesn't matter.

It's called the 1st amendment and the right to free association...also states rights.

Irrelevant to my opinion. And we all know how people like you feel about states rights so stuff it sister

No, actually, you have no idea.

You can whine all you want, but primaries and how they are run are Constitutional.

Yes actually I do.

California voted down queer marriage and you didn't support that decision.
States want to run their own education systems and you disagree with that.

Just stop hypocrite

 

[Statistikhengst]

Trump is still the one to beat.

Didn't Paul win in that state all the time? Why one or two states get to set a pace for the rest of the nation is beyond me. Like the elections the primaries should be set on one day nation wide. It's not fair to voters in the last states to essentially be told your vote doesn't matter.

You have a very valid point. Neither IA nor NH are in any way demographically representative of the nation. Actually, it's become a cottage industry to make money off of the campaigns every four years.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I still think the Establishment Republicans will find a way to dethrone Trump and Jeb will surface again....just sayin.........

Could be. Jeb had better work on his delivery.

Yepp.

 

[DarkFury]

CNN / ORC Poll: Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

READ THE POLL RESULTS

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans who are likely to attend the caucus say they're still trying to decide whom to support. Among the 34% who say they have made up their mind or are leading toward a candidate, Trump's lead grows, and the top of the field shifts. Among that group, 33% back Trump, 14% Carson, 11% Fiorina, and 9% each back Paul and Walker. Cruz follows at 7%, and all others have less than 5% support.

But Trump's advantages are not universal. He faces a large gender gap: While holding a 15-point lead over his nearest competitor among men (27% Trump to 12% Walker, Carson at 10%), he trails among women (20% back Carson, 15% Trump, and 11% support Fiorina). He runs behind Carson and about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump), and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).

CNN ORC Poll Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops - CNNPolitics.com

The GOP "party" is finding it had better listen to the GOP people.
The DNC "party" is also having the SAME problem NOT listening to the people.

That would explain BOTH Trump and Sanders.

 

[Jackson]

CNN / ORC Poll: Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

READ THE POLL RESULTS

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans who are likely to attend the caucus say they're still trying to decide whom to support. Among the 34% who say they have made up their mind or are leading toward a candidate, Trump's lead grows, and the top of the field shifts. Among that group, 33% back Trump, 14% Carson, 11% Fiorina, and 9% each back Paul and Walker. Cruz follows at 7%, and all others have less than 5% support.

But Trump's advantages are not universal. He faces a large gender gap: While holding a 15-point lead over his nearest competitor among men (27% Trump to 12% Walker, Carson at 10%), he trails among women (20% back Carson, 15% Trump, and 11% support Fiorina). He runs behind Carson and about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump), and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).

CNN ORC Poll Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops - CNNPolitics.com

The GOP "party" is finding it had better listen to the GOP people.
The DNC "party" is also having the SAME problem NOT listening to the people.

That would explain BOTH Trump and Sanders.

Kind of. The Democrats also have the problem of Hillary and her scandals.

 

[Nyvin]

Jeb is such a flop.....if it weren't for his last name and that he governed a big swing state he'd be a nobody. I have yet to be the least bit impressed by anything he does.

 

[Jackson]

Jeb is such a flop.....if it weren't for his last name and that he governed a big swing state he'd be a nobody. I have yet to be the least bit impressed by anything he does.

I'm with you.

 

[DarkFury]

CNN / ORC Poll: Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

READ THE POLL RESULTS

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans who are likely to attend the caucus say they're still trying to decide whom to support. Among the 34% who say they have made up their mind or are leading toward a candidate, Trump's lead grows, and the top of the field shifts. Among that group, 33% back Trump, 14% Carson, 11% Fiorina, and 9% each back Paul and Walker. Cruz follows at 7%, and all others have less than 5% support.

But Trump's advantages are not universal. He faces a large gender gap: While holding a 15-point lead over his nearest competitor among men (27% Trump to 12% Walker, Carson at 10%), he trails among women (20% back Carson, 15% Trump, and 11% support Fiorina). He runs behind Carson and about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump), and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).

CNN ORC Poll Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops - CNNPolitics.com

The GOP "party" is finding it had better listen to the GOP people.
The DNC "party" is also having the SAME problem NOT listening to the people.

That would explain BOTH Trump and Sanders.

Kind of. The Democrats also have the problem of Hillary and her scandals.

Hillary IS the thing the DNC will not talk about. The GOP have ALL said something about Trump but not ONE democrat has said anything about Hillary.

 

[Jackson]

CNN / ORC Poll: Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

READ THE POLL RESULTS

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.

Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans who are likely to attend the caucus say they're still trying to decide whom to support. Among the 34% who say they have made up their mind or are leading toward a candidate, Trump's lead grows, and the top of the field shifts. Among that group, 33% back Trump, 14% Carson, 11% Fiorina, and 9% each back Paul and Walker. Cruz follows at 7%, and all others have less than 5% support.

But Trump's advantages are not universal. He faces a large gender gap: While holding a 15-point lead over his nearest competitor among men (27% Trump to 12% Walker, Carson at 10%), he trails among women (20% back Carson, 15% Trump, and 11% support Fiorina). He runs behind Carson and about even with Walker and Cruz among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" (25% Carson, 15% each Cruz and Walker, 12% Trump), and he runs even with Carson among evangelical Christians (18% each Trump and Carson, 12% Cruz, 11% Huckabee, 10% Walker).

CNN ORC Poll Trump tops in Iowa as Scott Walker drops - CNNPolitics.com

The GOP "party" is finding it had better listen to the GOP people.
The DNC "party" is also having the SAME problem NOT listening to the people.

That would explain BOTH Trump and Sanders.

Kind of. The Democrats also have the problem of Hillary and her scandals.

Hillary IS the thing the DNC will not talk about. The GOP have ALL said something about Trump but not ONE democrat has said anything about Hillary.

You're right.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The real meat of the game is to get to 50% of all delegates plus at least 1.

IA and NH represent just a small fraction of delegates to the respective conventions.

For a long time now, in most cases, especially among Republicans, the guy who lost Iowa often won the nomination.

On January 8, 2014, I broached the idea of primaries vis-a-vis electioneering and our need for some reform.

Read this posting and see how those suggestions might resonate with you:

Electioneering US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

 

[Slyhunter]

Trump needs Political people to bring out to caucus his voters for caucus states. If he has alienated too many of them this will cause him headaches.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Trump needs Political people to bring out to caucus his voters for caucus states. If he has alienated too many of them this will cause him headaches.

Yepp.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sometimes my Democratic friends get a little miffed when I say this, but a wide-open field for the opposition party, which, in this case, is the GOP, is usually a good thing. It's also a good thing that there are many undecideds - it means that people are not willing to commit yet. And I do think that the Republicans should and will, in due time, pick their candidate. This is a good thing.

It's also not a bad thing when a field is narrow. A lean bench can be a fantastic bench. People are wanting to jump up and down that Hillary Clinton is failing, but in reality, she is still towering over her opponents. Nationally, her average is still around +30 (or considerably more) over her nearest rival, Sanders.

Just to put that in context: no presidential nominee has ever won in the national popular vote by +30. The closest was Harding with a little more than +26 in 1920, Coolidge with a little more than +25 in 1924, FDR and LBJ with +24 in 1936 and 1964 and Nixon with +23 in 1972. Reagan did not break +20, he came in at +18.22 in 1984. Only, people were so used to seeing Clinton at +50 or above when the DEM field was essentially empty that they are suddenly thinking she is in trouble at "only" +30. But I bet that a +30 is a margin that each and every Republican candidate would kill for to get.

So, let's put partisanship aside and realize that both types of fields (a very crowded field, a small field) can be productive. Reagan was up against a small field in 1980 and he towered over the competition. Ditto Bush 41 in 1988, Ditto Dole in 1996, ditto Bush 43 and Gore alike in 2000. And in those years, all of the adults in the room already knew quite clearly that the towering front-runner was going to be nominated.

With time, both parties will pick their candidates.

The phenomenon that we are now seeing, that sets 2015-2016 apart from both 2011-2012 and 2007-2008, is that there is already more early polling for both primaries and GE matchups at this point in the game than ever before in our history, and I can mathematically prove it, too. This means that we have a larger data baseline to work with and we are seeing a much larger crop of independent-from-each-other pollsters jumping in, polling and contributing results, not to even mention the plethora of internal (secret) polling going on that we will likely never see. This in turn means that the polling "DNA", if you will, is richer and therefore, the aggregate is likely more accurate.

So, when the OP so kindly makes a good thread like this one, I remind that it is only one poll and should be taken in contex of the polling around it, for context always matters.

Soon, the school year begins, people go back to work and the hard late-Fall slogging for votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will begin.

Whether or not Trump is the "flavor of the month" or two or three remains to be seen. At first, GOP polling for 2016 taken now looked a lot like GOP polling for 2012 at this corresponding point in time in 2011 - Perry had taken off and Romney had receded. Only, Perry ascent was briefer than this and none of the GOPers were hitting the 30s like Trump is now.

Wait and see.

 

[Claudette]

Trump is still the one to beat.

I agree but things can change in a heartbeat.

Will see if he's still around at the end of this dog and pony show called running for the presidency. . LOL

 

[Seawytch]

Trump is still the one to beat.

Didn't Paul win in that state all the time? Why one or two states get to set a pace for the rest of the nation is beyond me. Like the elections the primaries should be set on one day nation wide. It's not fair to voters in the last states to essentially be told your vote doesn't matter.

It's called the 1st amendment and the right to free association...also states rights.

Irrelevant to my opinion. And we all know how people like you feel about states rights so stuff it sister

No, actually, you have no idea.

You can whine all you want, but primaries and how they are run are Constitutional.

Yes actually I do.

California voted down queer marriage and you didn't support that decision.
States want to run their own education systems and you disagree with that.

Just stop hypocrite

You seem to think that states rights mean states can pass any laws they want to, even those that violate the US Constitution. It doesn't. I'm glad I could help with your continued education on these matters.