Clinton still has a significant firewall - Nate Silver

[JimH52]

Election Update: What If Clinton Wins North Carolina — And Loses Pennsylvania?

OK, this is getting far into the weeds. Obviously, Trump doesn’t have an easy path forward if he loses North Carolina. The point is really just this: Despite the recent tightening, Clinton has a fairly significant lead in the polls of about 5 percentage points. So in order to win, Trump needs a further shift because of Comey or some other news — or he needs the polls to have been off the mark to begin with. In the event of a last-minute shift or a significant polling error, the order of the swing states could easily be scrambled, such that Clinton wins North Carolina while losing Pennsylvania or Michigan, for example. With the race in a somewhat dynamic state as we enter the final full week of the campaign, we encourage you to think broadly about how the Electoral College might play out instead of fixating on just a few scenarios.
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Clinton still has a firewall that Comrade Trump may not make it over and her ground game is going to play big!

 

[Old Rocks]

Really, the last minute surprises have made little difference in past elections. Clinton pretty well has this one in the bag, and has had since Trump's idiocy in the first debate.

 

[JakeStarkey]

This will put it into context for you. From an OldRocks post.

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 47.6 43.3 Clinton +4.3

4-Way RCP Average 45.0 41.6 Clinton +3.4

Favorability Ratings -7.4 -21.2 Clinton +13.8
Live Betting Odds 82.0 18.0
Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 263 126 Clinton +137
No Toss Up States 304 234
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Ohio 44.3 45.3 Trump +1.0
Florida 44.4 44.4 Tie
Pennsylvania 46.4 40.6 Clinton +5.8

Colorado 44.0 39.5 Clinton +4.5

North Carolina 47.0 44.1 Clinton +2.9

Iowa 40.3 41.7 Trump +1.4
Nevada 45.2 43.5 Clinton +1.7
Battlegrounds

Clinton Trump Spread
Michigan 45.0 38.8 Clinton +6.2
Wisconsin 47.0 40.5 Clinton +6.5
Arizona 43.3 42.7 Clinton +0.6

Maine 44.0 37.3 Clinton +6.7

New Hampshire 45.0 39.8 Clinton +5.2
Virginia 48.0 40.0 Clinton +8.0
Georgia 43.5 46.3 Trump +2.8
Electoral Map | No Toss Ups | Senate Map | Latest Polls

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls

Clinton 4.3% ahead, leads in 10 of the 14 battleground states, tied in Florida.

 

[JimH52]

Really, the last minute surprises have made little difference in past elections. Clinton pretty well has this one in the bag, and has had since Trump's idiocy in the first debate.

I think her superior ground game is going to surprise a lot of people. If she bags Florida, which she really does not need, she is in. But don't tell the lunatic RWers. They could lose their noodles.

 

[JimH52]

A Trump Presidency would make the United States a laughing stock in the world.

 

[JimH52]

Really, the last minute surprises have made little difference in past elections. Clinton pretty well has this one in the bag, and has had since Trump's idiocy in the first debate.

I think her superior ground game is going to surprise a lot of people. If she bags Florida, which she really does not need, she is in. But don't tell the lunatic RWers. They could lose their noodles.

The entire interior of the White will be changed to Orange....

"Find me if you can Melania!"