- Mar 11, 2015
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That Gallup poll doesn't say what Donald Trump thinks it does
What the Gallup numbers suggest is that even though people feel better off than they were at this time in 2016 -- a somewhat remarkable finding given the ongoing coronavirus pandemic -- they don't ascribe that better feeling to Trump and his policies. Or even if they do give Trump credit for feeling "better off" -- usually a measure of economic stability, optimism and well-being -- there are other things they prioritize when it comes to choosing the next president.
(Important note: The Gallup poll was conducted before the first presidential debate -- and Trump's erratic performance. It was also in the field prior to Trump's diagnosis last week with Covid-19.)
Consider Gallup's other findings as they relate to Trump. His job approval for the month of September in Gallup polling is 44%. (That compares to 49% for Barack Obama in September 2012, 53% for George w. Bush in September 2004 and 60% for Bill Clinton in September 1996.) His personal favorability rating is 41% in Gallup's September data; at this time in 2012, Obama's personal favorable rating was 55%.
The message voters are sending is pretty clear: Many of them just don't like Trump personally.
That should be extremely worrisome for the President and his team. A majority of people feel better about their own lives than they did four years ago. With any past president, that would be a near-guarantee of a second term. Voters who feel like their own lives -- typically judged by their economic successes (or failures) -- are getting better have little interest in changing out the president.
But that's not the case here. A majority of voters are satisfied with where they are and, according to all swing state and national polling, want to replace Trump with former Vice President Joe Biden. (Biden leads Trump 53% to 42% in CNN's poll of polls.)
That's a very, very tough nut for Trump to crack -- even if he had two years to do it. But he doesn't have two years. He has 25 days. Essentially he has to figure out a way to get credit for voters' positive feelings about their personal status while also somehow convincing them to prioritize that feeling over their personal dislike for him and the way he conducts himself in office.
What that Gallup poll that Trump and his campaign have touted actually tells us is that if Trump had been, well, a whole lot less Trump-y, he might be in a strong position to win a second term. But because Trump is Trump, he has managed to separate out voters' positive feelings about their lives from their feelings about him. People feel good about their situations, and Trump doesn't benefit.
Rather than pumping up that poll as proof of his successes, Trump should see the Gallup numbers for what they actually are: A blaring warning sign that he is headed toward a loss on November 3.
What the Gallup numbers suggest is that even though people feel better off than they were at this time in 2016 -- a somewhat remarkable finding given the ongoing coronavirus pandemic -- they don't ascribe that better feeling to Trump and his policies. Or even if they do give Trump credit for feeling "better off" -- usually a measure of economic stability, optimism and well-being -- there are other things they prioritize when it comes to choosing the next president.
(Important note: The Gallup poll was conducted before the first presidential debate -- and Trump's erratic performance. It was also in the field prior to Trump's diagnosis last week with Covid-19.)
Consider Gallup's other findings as they relate to Trump. His job approval for the month of September in Gallup polling is 44%. (That compares to 49% for Barack Obama in September 2012, 53% for George w. Bush in September 2004 and 60% for Bill Clinton in September 1996.) His personal favorability rating is 41% in Gallup's September data; at this time in 2012, Obama's personal favorable rating was 55%.
The message voters are sending is pretty clear: Many of them just don't like Trump personally.
That should be extremely worrisome for the President and his team. A majority of people feel better about their own lives than they did four years ago. With any past president, that would be a near-guarantee of a second term. Voters who feel like their own lives -- typically judged by their economic successes (or failures) -- are getting better have little interest in changing out the president.
But that's not the case here. A majority of voters are satisfied with where they are and, according to all swing state and national polling, want to replace Trump with former Vice President Joe Biden. (Biden leads Trump 53% to 42% in CNN's poll of polls.)
That's a very, very tough nut for Trump to crack -- even if he had two years to do it. But he doesn't have two years. He has 25 days. Essentially he has to figure out a way to get credit for voters' positive feelings about their personal status while also somehow convincing them to prioritize that feeling over their personal dislike for him and the way he conducts himself in office.
What that Gallup poll that Trump and his campaign have touted actually tells us is that if Trump had been, well, a whole lot less Trump-y, he might be in a strong position to win a second term. But because Trump is Trump, he has managed to separate out voters' positive feelings about their lives from their feelings about him. People feel good about their situations, and Trump doesn't benefit.
Rather than pumping up that poll as proof of his successes, Trump should see the Gallup numbers for what they actually are: A blaring warning sign that he is headed toward a loss on November 3.
