Another Electoral College Map Which will Be interesting to watch

[courseofhistory]

Obama 332 Romney 206​

Map Algorithm Explained

Here is the algorithm for combining polls to make the map.

1. The most recent poll in every state is always used.
2. If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
3. If one or more other polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally.

This algorithm smoothes out fluctations better and produces fewer wild swings and gives a better overall result. You can see which polls were used by putting the mouse on a state. The Source field tells which polls are used and gives the final date of the final poll used. If multiple polls were used, the first nine characters of each pollster are listed and the pollsters are separated by a "+" sign.

The EVP average page uses these scores.

A consequence of this algorithm is that in the "News from the Votemaster" section, a new poll may be reported but the map gives a different result. This effect is always due to multiple recent polls being averaged. You will see that this is the case by looking for the "+" sign used to separate multiple pollsters in the Source field of the pop-up box. Another consequence of this algorithm, is that this site may give slightly different results from other polling sites, each of which uses its own algorithm, sometimes a far more complex one.

Why a look-back window of 1 week? It is admittedly arbitrary. If the window is too short, the results gyrate wildly as different polls use different methodologies . If the window is too long, genuine shifts in public opinion take too long to show up. The choice of 1 week is based on my now-extensive experience with examining polling data. Public reaction to news events often takes several days to take effect as people often change their opinions after talking to friends, coworkers, and relatives.

It is worth emphasizing that the margin of error in most state polls is at least 3% for each candidate. Thus if a poll says Smith is beating Jones 52% to 48%, Smith might be as low as 49% and Jones might be as high as 51%. When the difference between two candidates is less than 2x the margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. On the map, the states with a white center are those where the candidates differ by less than 5% and are certainly statistical ties. Even some of the ones in the solid light color may technically be statistical ties, but a lead of 5% or more most likely means the candidate is actually ahead

.

LINK

 

[auditor0007]

Obama 332 Romney 206​

Map Algorithm Explained

Here is the algorithm for combining polls to make the map.

1. The most recent poll in every state is always used.
2. If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
3. If one or more other polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally.

This algorithm smoothes out fluctations better and produces fewer wild swings and gives a better overall result. You can see which polls were used by putting the mouse on a state. The Source field tells which polls are used and gives the final date of the final poll used. If multiple polls were used, the first nine characters of each pollster are listed and the pollsters are separated by a "+" sign.

The EVP average page uses these scores.

A consequence of this algorithm is that in the "News from the Votemaster" section, a new poll may be reported but the map gives a different result. This effect is always due to multiple recent polls being averaged. You will see that this is the case by looking for the "+" sign used to separate multiple pollsters in the Source field of the pop-up box. Another consequence of this algorithm, is that this site may give slightly different results from other polling sites, each of which uses its own algorithm, sometimes a far more complex one.

Why a look-back window of 1 week? It is admittedly arbitrary. If the window is too short, the results gyrate wildly as different polls use different methodologies . If the window is too long, genuine shifts in public opinion take too long to show up. The choice of 1 week is based on my now-extensive experience with examining polling data. Public reaction to news events often takes several days to take effect as people often change their opinions after talking to friends, coworkers, and relatives.

It is worth emphasizing that the margin of error in most state polls is at least 3% for each candidate. Thus if a poll says Smith is beating Jones 52% to 48%, Smith might be as low as 49% and Jones might be as high as 51%. When the difference between two candidates is less than 2x the margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. On the map, the states with a white center are those where the candidates differ by less than 5% and are certainly statistical ties. Even some of the ones in the solid light color may technically be statistical ties, but a lead of 5% or more most likely means the candidate is actually ahead

.

LINK

It's all coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Whoever takes two out of those three will most likely win the election. That being said, there are a number of scenarios where Obama could still win and only take one of those, but it's not likely. All of those states are very close in the polls. If voter sentiment takes a shift one way or the other, it is likely to have the same effect on all three of those states, so the odds are also very good that one candidate or the other will take all three of them.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Obama 332 Romney 206​

Map Algorithm Explained

Here is the algorithm for combining polls to make the map.

1. The most recent poll in every state is always used.
2. If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
3. If one or more other polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally.

This algorithm smoothes out fluctations better and produces fewer wild swings and gives a better overall result. You can see which polls were used by putting the mouse on a state. The Source field tells which polls are used and gives the final date of the final poll used. If multiple polls were used, the first nine characters of each pollster are listed and the pollsters are separated by a "+" sign.

The EVP average page uses these scores.

A consequence of this algorithm is that in the "News from the Votemaster" section, a new poll may be reported but the map gives a different result. This effect is always due to multiple recent polls being averaged. You will see that this is the case by looking for the "+" sign used to separate multiple pollsters in the Source field of the pop-up box. Another consequence of this algorithm, is that this site may give slightly different results from other polling sites, each of which uses its own algorithm, sometimes a far more complex one.

Why a look-back window of 1 week? It is admittedly arbitrary. If the window is too short, the results gyrate wildly as different polls use different methodologies . If the window is too long, genuine shifts in public opinion take too long to show up. The choice of 1 week is based on my now-extensive experience with examining polling data. Public reaction to news events often takes several days to take effect as people often change their opinions after talking to friends, coworkers, and relatives.

It is worth emphasizing that the margin of error in most state polls is at least 3% for each candidate. Thus if a poll says Smith is beating Jones 52% to 48%, Smith might be as low as 49% and Jones might be as high as 51%. When the difference between two candidates is less than 2x the margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. On the map, the states with a white center are those where the candidates differ by less than 5% and are certainly statistical ties. Even some of the ones in the solid light color may technically be statistical ties, but a lead of 5% or more most likely means the candidate is actually ahead

.

LINK

It's all coming down to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Whoever takes two out of those three will most likely win the election. That being said, there are a number of scenarios where Obama could still win and only take one of those, but it's not likely. All of those states are very close in the polls. If voter sentiment takes a shift one way or the other, it is likely to have the same effect on all three of those states, so the odds are also very good that one candidate or the other will take all three of them.

I have to agree with you on that.....it's the big trifecta and if you get 2 of em...you're looking good....but I dont trust polls so who knows

 

[courseofhistory]

Presently the odds are still in Obama's favor. Time will tell. I have quit reading the hyperbolic and disgusting commentary, mostly from the right (such as on this forum and elsewhere) in addition to the media hype. I'm just watching the maps and looking at the polls to get an idea of where things might be headed.

Romney has moved so far to the center in the last week it is difficult to tell him from Obama so if he winds up governing that way, it won't be the end of the world. In addition Congress, especially the dem controlled senate after the elections will be able to keep him in check should he venture into the radical right realm. I'd prefer to see Obama win but I'm not losing sleep over anything that happens or may happen.