nicolondon
Senior Member
As I'm sure you're all aware the UK voted to leave the EU in June. The polling often showed a marked difference between online and phone samples. Although the polls converged close to the vote the last few days had varying leads for remain. As it turned out these were wrong, the turnout was higher than expected but crucially this was because voters who had never voted before turned out on the day.
Looking at the demographic make up of the majority of Trump supporters this group is often likely to be where a higher proportion of new voters will come from and its this variable that could cause a shock in November.
The UK online polls were closer to the result and it's likely that phone polling could be effected by a larger than normal error rate because of respondent bias. Some people might be reluctant to give a true opinion because of the nature of the Trump campaign.
Its important to clarify the difference between self-selecting online polls whereby you turn up at the page and vote without a pre screening and those done by polling companies which make sure the sample is weighted to be as demographically representative of the USA population.
Looking ahead to your election turnout will be important but its not just that but which demographic group makes up a higher proportion of those new voters.
In the UK if the vote had mirrored previous general elections in terms of make up the UK would still be in the EU.
Personally I hope that Clinton wins but having seen what happened in the UK I certainly won't be counting any chickens until the results come in!
Looking at the demographic make up of the majority of Trump supporters this group is often likely to be where a higher proportion of new voters will come from and its this variable that could cause a shock in November.
The UK online polls were closer to the result and it's likely that phone polling could be effected by a larger than normal error rate because of respondent bias. Some people might be reluctant to give a true opinion because of the nature of the Trump campaign.
Its important to clarify the difference between self-selecting online polls whereby you turn up at the page and vote without a pre screening and those done by polling companies which make sure the sample is weighted to be as demographically representative of the USA population.
Looking ahead to your election turnout will be important but its not just that but which demographic group makes up a higher proportion of those new voters.
In the UK if the vote had mirrored previous general elections in terms of make up the UK would still be in the EU.
Personally I hope that Clinton wins but having seen what happened in the UK I certainly won't be counting any chickens until the results come in!
