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7 key battleground state predictions on 538 in 2016 vs actual. Off by 34.2!

shockedcanadian

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I took the time to look at predicted state results in 2016 election vs the actual. My new hobby of politics thanks to the creepy Canadian interfering with my career, so this keeps me somewhat busy along with coding (Trump has definitely made it far more interesting than any other period), but I digress...

Only Ohio and Iowa was a Trump prediction and he won as they foretold, but they were off a staggering. 12.3%.

All of the other states on this list were predicted to be for Hillary and she lost them all. These are average polls from 538, so there were obviously some that were much further off the mark, others less so.

Some suggest the polls are better for Biden this time, but I would predict with the crazed last 4 years of Cancel Culture, shaming, doxing and abuses against Trump supporters, that not are only Trump voters MORE likely to remain quiet in a poll (if polled at all), but, Trump also is a well known quantity now which makes it easier to vote with confidence. He didn't start wars, he didn't hurt the economy, on the contrary.

Also, I don't hear this spoken about much, but the Libertarian Party who are not running this election, took 3% of the total vote, against an unknown Trump, the Green Party only took 1% from Hillary. Can we assume Trump gains another 1% of votes in total in 2020 from any division of these voters? Say, 2.5% for Trump to 1.5% for Biden of the 4% that might split?

Here are the 2016 Predictions and the actual outcomes at the ballot box:

Michigan Prediction: +4.2 for Hillary
Actual: +0.3% Trump


Ohio Prediction: +1.8% Trump
Actual: +8% Trump


Florida Prediction +0.7% Hillary
Actual: +2% Trump


Iowa +2.9% Trump
Actual: +9% Trump


Pennsylvania Prediction; +3.7% Hillary
Actual: 0.7% Trump



Wisconsin Prediction: +5.3% Hillary
Actual: 0.7% Trump


North Carolina Prediction: 0.7% Hillary
Actual: 3.6% Trump

Total percentage of prediction that they were off if my calculations are correct for these 7 key states: 34.4%! Again, with an unknown outsider controversial businessman and 3% essentially going to a Third Party.

How will this shake out in 2020? Trump is following the same application of tirelessly campaigning. Being out there with the people. It can't hurt those who are on the fence to see him tirelessly working and showing he is NOT a politician.

Sources:

Predicted Average on 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Final outcomes from NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president
 

johngaltshrugged

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I go by the enthusiasm gap and that's like the Grand Canyon.
Plus, 56% of people think their neighbors are voting for Trump. Since it is well documented people are often reluctant to say the truth about their own voting preference, this is a major indicator that most people not only believe Trump will win, but also believe most everybody else does too.
Red wave
 
OP
shockedcanadian

shockedcanadian

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I go by the enthusiasm gap and that's like the Grand Canyon.
Plus, 56% of people think their neighbors are voting for Trump. Since it is well documented people are often reluctant to say the truth about their own voting preference, this is a major indicator that most people not only believe Trump will win, but also believe most everybody else does too.
Red wave

I don't know about a Red Wave, but the enthusiasm gap is certainly large.
 

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