Qball
Corner Pocket
I figure I'll get into the betting game and say I think Trump will win tomorrow. I know Hillary's up in the polls, but I have a suspicion Annoying Orange will pull it out. I could absolutely be wrong, but here's the way I see it:
1. The entire election has been a referendum on Trump.
I have a theory that whoever the more "popular" candidate is, is the one who wins. Trump is polarizing, but since he announced his candidacy this entire campaign season has been about him. I almost think it was a tactical error for Hillary's campaign to lay low for certain bouts while Trump duked it out with the media. Hillary seems over; Trump seems like he's just getting started.
2. Hillary hasn't had to atone for her scandals.
Part of Hillary's consistent dominance over Trump in the polls comes down to Trump always being in the press saying or doing something controversial. That's part of why people like him, but it also gives a lot of people pause in openly supporting him. But Hillary's spent very little time in the hot seat and I think a lot of people know that. Between her e-mails, the pay-for-play stuff with the State department, the DNC colluding with the media and the Clinton campaign to keep Bernie Sanders from winning the nomination, Donna Brazille slipping her town hall questions, etc. I think a lot of people think Hillary's gotten a lot of slack and that isn't endearing. She already wasn't the most cuddliest Democrat in the country, so the scandals that have come out in this election alone does her no favors.
3. Two key voting blocs might have an issue with a woman in power.
I don't mean any offense by this, but I don't think the black and Hispanic voting blocs are going to show up for Hillary. I think many black voters remember that Hillary was the first one to talk slick about Obama being a Muslim and possibly Kenyan, even if the media would rather ignore that little tidbit in the history of birtherism. And, I hate to break it to Democrats who think Trump's early comments about Mexicans would seal his fate, but Hispanic men, specifically, aren't crazy about women in positions of authority. They're a bit more traditional in that sense. Again: just my opinion.
4. The Supreme Court upheld Obamacare twice and legalized same-sex marriage.
Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act even though the majority of the country did not agree with it. Aside from the fact that the left loves to thump the polls until they don't say what they want them to, then they want to argue principle. The same goes for same-sex marriage. When well over half the country went to the polls and voted to define marriage as a man and woman, the left disregarded it. Then when a few polls showed it had a majority of support, they pushed it into the Supreme Court who simply legalized it. I think Hillary is going to be the recipient of the backlash. Justice Roberts basically said that it's not the Supreme Court's job to save the people from laws passed by their elected officials. It was a ridiculous reason to uphold that law, but I think it's going to give Trump the win. You want conservatives to go find their guy? You've got it.
5. President Obama's trolling has pissed a lot of people off.
The one thing I've never liked about Obama is the fact that I think he's very passive-aggressive and vindictive. He's said a lot of things that frankly piss a lot of people off, and the fact that he's been allowed to act like the adult in the room, or put-upon by Republicans who can't deal with a black man in office, has compounded the ire a lot of people have for him.
6. ...so has the media's trolling.
Ever notice how the media has really come unhinged in this election? Like, there isn't even a slight pretense of impartiality. It's clear they hate Trump and are in the tank for Hillary. But do you notice how one-sided this entire thing has become? Every time Trump says something, not only does his campaign have to address it, but every Republican in a 500 mile radius has to also address it. How many Democrats have been given the third-degree for supporting her even after the stuff that's come out from WikiLeaks, Project Veritas, and/or the FBI? Why have Democratic congressmen been allowed to ignore the fact that Hillary has been under FBI investigation no less than three times in her public, adult life (Whitewater, storing e-mails on a private server, the Clinton Foundation) as perhaps being problematic? If a Republican said they didn't care about Trump's Access Hollywood comments, they would be accused of supporting violence against women. Hillary provably broke federal law by storing classified documents on her private e-mail server and -- you know -- who cares?
Now for a conspiracy theory: Allow me to put on my tinfoil hat here. I think there has been a backroom deal that basically goes, "Hillary, you won't be prosecuted, you won't be indicted, we'll leave you alone; but, you won't be President, either." Either between her and Obama, the FBI, or whoever. I think Hillary's only win is going to be that she doesn't see the inside of a jail cell. If she did win, the same thing that NeverTrumpers are worried about with respect to supporting Trump and it being held against them, is going to happen to Democrats. The country will turn on them for sticking by a clearly corrupt woman just because of party loyalty. They're not going to risk their brand on one old woman.
1. The entire election has been a referendum on Trump.
I have a theory that whoever the more "popular" candidate is, is the one who wins. Trump is polarizing, but since he announced his candidacy this entire campaign season has been about him. I almost think it was a tactical error for Hillary's campaign to lay low for certain bouts while Trump duked it out with the media. Hillary seems over; Trump seems like he's just getting started.
2. Hillary hasn't had to atone for her scandals.
Part of Hillary's consistent dominance over Trump in the polls comes down to Trump always being in the press saying or doing something controversial. That's part of why people like him, but it also gives a lot of people pause in openly supporting him. But Hillary's spent very little time in the hot seat and I think a lot of people know that. Between her e-mails, the pay-for-play stuff with the State department, the DNC colluding with the media and the Clinton campaign to keep Bernie Sanders from winning the nomination, Donna Brazille slipping her town hall questions, etc. I think a lot of people think Hillary's gotten a lot of slack and that isn't endearing. She already wasn't the most cuddliest Democrat in the country, so the scandals that have come out in this election alone does her no favors.
3. Two key voting blocs might have an issue with a woman in power.
I don't mean any offense by this, but I don't think the black and Hispanic voting blocs are going to show up for Hillary. I think many black voters remember that Hillary was the first one to talk slick about Obama being a Muslim and possibly Kenyan, even if the media would rather ignore that little tidbit in the history of birtherism. And, I hate to break it to Democrats who think Trump's early comments about Mexicans would seal his fate, but Hispanic men, specifically, aren't crazy about women in positions of authority. They're a bit more traditional in that sense. Again: just my opinion.
4. The Supreme Court upheld Obamacare twice and legalized same-sex marriage.
Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act even though the majority of the country did not agree with it. Aside from the fact that the left loves to thump the polls until they don't say what they want them to, then they want to argue principle. The same goes for same-sex marriage. When well over half the country went to the polls and voted to define marriage as a man and woman, the left disregarded it. Then when a few polls showed it had a majority of support, they pushed it into the Supreme Court who simply legalized it. I think Hillary is going to be the recipient of the backlash. Justice Roberts basically said that it's not the Supreme Court's job to save the people from laws passed by their elected officials. It was a ridiculous reason to uphold that law, but I think it's going to give Trump the win. You want conservatives to go find their guy? You've got it.
5. President Obama's trolling has pissed a lot of people off.
The one thing I've never liked about Obama is the fact that I think he's very passive-aggressive and vindictive. He's said a lot of things that frankly piss a lot of people off, and the fact that he's been allowed to act like the adult in the room, or put-upon by Republicans who can't deal with a black man in office, has compounded the ire a lot of people have for him.
6. ...so has the media's trolling.
Ever notice how the media has really come unhinged in this election? Like, there isn't even a slight pretense of impartiality. It's clear they hate Trump and are in the tank for Hillary. But do you notice how one-sided this entire thing has become? Every time Trump says something, not only does his campaign have to address it, but every Republican in a 500 mile radius has to also address it. How many Democrats have been given the third-degree for supporting her even after the stuff that's come out from WikiLeaks, Project Veritas, and/or the FBI? Why have Democratic congressmen been allowed to ignore the fact that Hillary has been under FBI investigation no less than three times in her public, adult life (Whitewater, storing e-mails on a private server, the Clinton Foundation) as perhaps being problematic? If a Republican said they didn't care about Trump's Access Hollywood comments, they would be accused of supporting violence against women. Hillary provably broke federal law by storing classified documents on her private e-mail server and -- you know -- who cares?
Now for a conspiracy theory: Allow me to put on my tinfoil hat here. I think there has been a backroom deal that basically goes, "Hillary, you won't be prosecuted, you won't be indicted, we'll leave you alone; but, you won't be President, either." Either between her and Obama, the FBI, or whoever. I think Hillary's only win is going to be that she doesn't see the inside of a jail cell. If she did win, the same thing that NeverTrumpers are worried about with respect to supporting Trump and it being held against them, is going to happen to Democrats. The country will turn on them for sticking by a clearly corrupt woman just because of party loyalty. They're not going to risk their brand on one old woman.
