5 Emerging Africa Economies!!!! Hope for the Future or Over-Optimistic?

[GHook93]

Global Economic Winners: African Economy Booms

1. South Africa: The Continent's Largest Economy

Africa's southernmost country has a mature economy with strong industrial, financial, and transportation sectors. With GDP estimated at $408 billion and per capita income estimated at $11,000 for 2012, the country sits firmly in the World Bank's Upper-Middle-Income category, along with Brazil and China. In 2010, South Africa joined the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), an association of top emerging economies distinguished by their fast growth and burgeoning influence in regional and global matters.

Global Economic Outlook Bright for African Countries Despite its developed infrastructure and abundant natural resources, South Africa does face challenges in the areas of governance and inequality. Protests, strikes, and instability have hindered foreign investment in the country. And compared to Africa's Middle-Income Economies—or MICs, as defined by the World Bank—South Africa's 2.6% economic growth rate is sluggish. (This has partially been because closer ties to the global economy and substantial exposure to the Euro zone mean South Africa has been more affected by the global economic slowdown.)

That said, the country is a major regional powerhouse. It has large investments in neighboring countries. And South African companies—particularly its financial services, retail, fast food, supermarket, service station, and textile firms—are flooding the continent with consumer goods and services. This has given the country an outsize influence on the continent, and a firm stake in the success of economies across Africa.

2. Nigeria: A Waking Giant

Nigeria, in West Africa, tops most lists of African countries to watch over the next decade. Traditionally known as "the sleeping giant of Africa," the country has a huge population of more than 167 million, over 50% of which lives in urban areas like Lagos and Kano. According to the state-run Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer, exporting 2.5 million barrels per day. Economically, it has registered a solid 7% growth rate for the last decade, and politically, with its second civilian transfer of power in less than a decade, the country has begun to consolidate its democratic reforms.

In many ways, Nigeria's current status resembles that of Brazil before political and social reforms turned around its economy in the 1990s. Nigeria may be able to replicate Brazil's success by adopting similar policies, including investing in infrastructure, reducing poverty and inequality, and reforming institutions.

According to an October 2012 report by Standard Chartered Research, Nigeria's challenge is to replicate its success in technology (mobile telephony) in the utilities, refining, and agricultural sectors. The report urges Nigeria to move away from the "system of patronage" that has held the country back for decades. It also calls for greater emphasis on diversification and long-term planning that will change Nigeria from an "allocation" to a "production" state. The report states that, "Oil and gas, even given Nigeria's vast resources, are not going to determine development in the future."

Nonetheless, there is a great deal of optimism surrounding Nigeria. The Economist even suggested recently that Nigeria's economy, messy as it still is, has the potential to overtake South Africa within a few years.

3. Angola: A China-Fueled Surge

Angola is sub-Saharan Africa's third-largest economy after South Africa and Nigeria, with a GDP of $107 billion and per capita income of $8,200. Since the end of the civil war in 2002, Angola's economy has been growing much faster than the continent's two powerhouses, and the World Bank recently reclassified it as an Upper-Middle-Income economy. Unlike South Africa, however, Angola has a young economy that lacks diversification. And the country is still recovering from that 27-year-long civil war, which devastated its economy and people.

Angola is the continent's second largest exporter of oil. Its economy was expanding at a rate of 15% before the global recession of 2009. Despite the current contraction, its economy is still expected to expand by 6.8% this year thanks to the export of oil and diamonds, as well as uranium, iron ore, gold, and copper. (Most of Angola's oil goes to China; Angola is China's biggest trading partner on the continent.)

Since the end of the war, Angola's civilian government has instituted aggressive economic and social reforms that are beginning to bear fruit, and it claims to have reduced poverty from 68% to 39% over the last decade. It has also asserted an infrastructure development program to build thousands of miles of roads and railroads, and hundreds of bridges and reconstructed airports. Most of these infrastructure projects involve Chinese firms under an oil-for-infrastructure deal that some criticize as favoring China.

4. Ghana: Africa's Next Economic Star?

Another emerging African "lion" is West Africa's Ghana, which is still classified as a Lower-Middle-Income country by the World Bank. Its economy grew at 14.3% in 2011, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world (and tops on the African continent), though the World Bank expects its growth to slow to 7.5% for 2012.

Ghana's growth can largely be attributed to increased oil production, although diamond, iron ore, and cocoa exports also contributed to the bottom line. After decades of mismanagement, Ghana began to turn its economy around in the early 1990s, when it instituted wide-ranging economic reforms with the support of the IMF and World Bank. In 2007, oil was discovered, which led to faster economic growth. Today, Ghana has been a stable democracy since 1992, and is considered a model for prudent political and economic reform.

5. Ethiopia: Public Sector Investment

Ethiopia is an example of a non-resource-rich country with an economy that nonetheless grew at an average of 11% between 2004 and 2011. According to the World Bank, this is based on its government's public sector investments in agriculture, industrialization, and infrastructure. Government investments in hydropower have made Ethiopia a net exporter of electricity to neighboring countries such as South Sudan and Djibouti. And with a population of 85 million, Ethiopia is sub-Saharan Africa's second most populous country, after Nigeria.

With that population expected to reach 100 million by 2020, Ethiopia represents a huge market that is expected to drive economic integration in the region and growth for its neighbors. In addition, the country has been praised for making progress in all areas of the Millennium Development Goals (ending poverty, hunger, and disease). The Ethiopian government estimates that poverty declined from 38.7% in 2004 to 29.6% in 2011. As a result, Ethiopia has laid the foundations for sustainable growth and even emerging economy status.

I would love to believe this, but I think I go with over-optimistic! I mean they have South Africa at the top. SA is the AIDS, rape, baby rape, carjacking and murder rate capital of the world. Not to mention they have enacted pogram or government rule discriminatory programs against Whites, very much the same as how blacks were treated during apartheid. Yet they put them at the top at the shining light.

Then you have Nigeria! A country that is sharply divided by secular lines, most caused by Muslim belligerence!

I just can't see hope with these countries being spotlighted!

 

[longknife]

African countries will emerge with economic importance - not due to internal leadership - but engineers and managers brought in from China!!!!!

True, some are turning to European skill-bases, but the biggest surge comes from China that is hungry for oil - one of the reasons they're rattling sabers all throughout the South China Sea.

And, to back up and defend their claims, many companies are hiring large numbers of heavily-armed mercenaries to protect their claims. While al-queda is trying very hard to dominate a number of African countries, its leaders are facing severe threats from these and other mercenary organizations.

Oh yeah - and don't forget King Barry's efforts to infiltrate American military forces into the region.

 

[waltky]

China shorin' up Sudan's currency...

Sudan says secures $1.5 bln loan from China as it battles currency slide
9 Jan.`13 - Sudan has secured a $1.5 billion loan guaranteed by Chinese state oil firm China National Petroleum Corp, its finance minister said, throwing a lifeline to the African country battling its worst economic crisis for decades.

Sudanese Finance Minister Ali Mahmoud said the loan, agreed on December 31, would come from a Chinese bank, which he declined to identify. It comes at a crucial time for Sudan which has been unable to stop a slide in its currency since losing three-quarters of its oil production when South Sudan seceded in 2011. Oil was the main revenue source for the budget and for dollars needed to buy basic food imports such as wheat and sugar.

China is the country's biggest trading partner apart from Gulf Arab oil producers and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), which was not immediately available to comment, is the biggest investor in the oil industry in Sudan and South Sudan. Sudan has avoided an "Arab spring" revolution that toppled the rulers of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya but annual inflation running at 46.5 percent in November has sparked small protests against the government. "The $1.5 billion loan will be used to bridge the fiscal gap and enhance our balance of payments," Mahmoud told Reuters in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday.

He said the loan would help stabilise the Sudanese pound which has more than halved in value on the key black market since southern secession in July 2011. In July, Sudan devalued the official dollar exchange rate to around 4.4 pounds to end a differential with the black market rate. But the pound fell further, to 7 pounds to the dollar in December on the black market, which has become the reference for import firms as the central bank struggles to supply dollars.

CHINA INTEREST

 

[GHook93]

African countries will emerge with economic importance - not due to internal leadership - but engineers and managers brought in from China!!!!!

True, some are turning to European skill-bases, but the biggest surge comes from China that is hungry for oil - one of the reasons they're rattling sabers all throughout the South China Sea.

And, to back up and defend their claims, many companies are hiring large numbers of heavily-armed mercenaries to protect their claims. While al-queda is trying very hard to dominate a number of African countries, its leaders are facing severe threats from these and other mercenary organizations.

Oh yeah - and don't forget King Barry's efforts to infiltrate American military forces into the region.

If both the US and China help turn around the basket case that is Africa, wouldn't that meddling be a positive thing? Yet the libs and the Ron Paul Nutbags would cry foul!

 

[TheOldSchool]

Hope for the future! Whether it's the U.S. or china it's about time that a foreign power HELPED in Africa! Africa has nowhere to go but up. Foreign meddling is the root of every current problem in Africa, and it seems that POSITIVE foreign meddling could be the best way out.

 

[waltky]

How drugs fuel Islamic militants in Africa...

How Islamist militancy threatens Africa
29 May 2013 > With Islamist militant groups across the Sahara region still able to flex their muscles despite the French intervention in Mali, former UN diplomat and security expert Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah considers their threat to Africa.

The countries of North and West Africa have become embroiled in a new war waged by violent Islamist militants - a conflict that has no front line. Last week's suicide assaults in Niger on a military base and French-run uranium mine, and a siege in January of the gas plant in Algeria reveal the insurgents' ruthless tactics. And the start of the withdrawal of French troops from Mali, four months after recapturing northern cities from Islamist insurgents, is being touted by the militants on internet forums as the beginning of their victory. But this is no sudden development.

Militants and armed radical groups have expanded and entrenched their positions throughout the Sahel and Sahara over the last decade under the umbrella of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb (AQIM). They move from one country to another - a hard core of operatives working in an area that covers parts of south-west and south Libya, southern Algeria, northern Niger, north-east Mauritania and most of northern Mali. Poorly administrated, these vast desert spaces provide the groups with an ideal terrain. They also have connections in northern Nigeria, especially with home-grown militant group Boko Haram.

Cocaine

Analysts believe there are dormant cells in many large cities, including most capitals in the Sahel region. There are several reasons that this network of militancy has flourished. One significant factor is the perceived arrogance and corruption of urban elites. The marginalisation of poorer communities - both in rural areas and smaller towns - and minority ethnic groups has further alienated them from the governing classes. Disgruntled young men have been happy to join radical groups that not only offer them an ideology, but money. And it is the widespread drug trafficking in the region that is believed to have enriched militant groups. Details about the operations are sketchy - large amounts of money are involved to ensure secrecy and loyalty.

Drugs from South America are taken across Africa to Europe, where they are more profitable and marketable. A kilogramme of cocaine bought in Latin America for $3,000 (£1,990) can be sold in the capitals of West Africa for about $16,000; in North Africa it sells for $25,000 and can fetch about $45,000 in Europe. Getting involved in the transit business as the conveyor or security agent provides not only a good salary but also the social recognition that money brings. This is a tantalising prospect to many unemployed young men.

Western hostage taking is no less profitable for militant groups - and is another "business" that has grown in the last 10 years. Between 80m-100m euros ($103m-130m) is estimated by the Center for Strategy and Security in the Sahel Sahara to have been paid in ransoms in this time, despite both the United Nations and the African Union discouraging such payments. Information technology has been a great help to a hard core of between 350 and 450 experienced AQIM fighters estimated to work within the coalition of Islamist militant groups in the Sahel and Sahara region.

Co-operation

See also:

Egypt Fears Diversion of Nile Waters for a New Dam
May 29, 2013, WASHINGTON — Egypt is expressing concern at Ethiopia’s move to divert water from the Nile River to allow construction of a massive hydroelectric dam.

Egypt’s cabinet met Wednesday to discuss Ethiopia’s announcement that it was diverting the flow of the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the river. The meeting came a day after Ethiopian officials said the water would be diverted to make way for construction of a nearly $5 billion dam. The hydropower facility will be the largest in Africa, producing as much electricity as six nuclear power plants. It is scheduled for completion in 2017. A statement carried by Egypt’s state run MENA news agency said construction measures already in progress do not reflect any approval by Cairo to build the dam.

Egypt’s ambassador to Ethiopia, Mohamed Idriss, says his country is not surprised by the diversion. It had been expected, he says. But he suggested the unilateral announcement was premature, coming days before a panel of experts from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia releases a long-awaited study on the impact of the dam. “These are technical issues and you cannot just give judgmental or impressionistic view on these implications. That’s why the three countries formed this panel of experts which include a national expert and international experts of high reputation, and this panel is almost completing its work is entrusted with making this scientific assessment of the implications on Egypt and Sudan and based on the report of this panel, the three countries will decide on how to proceed on this matter,” Idriss said.

Ethiopian officials this week sought to assure the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, that the 550 meter diversion or shifting of the river from its natural course would not mean any loss of water, and could be a boon to future regional energy needs. Ethiopian officials emphasized that water levels would not be affected by the diversion. But Ambassador Idriss said Egypt’s almost total dependence on the Nile for its water supply makes any potential disruption a national security issue. “The Nile for us is not just a river. It is the only source of life in Egypt. So any impact on the water reaching Egypt is going to affect Egyptian water security and the life of the Egyptian people, and this is of great concern,” Idriss said.

The envoy said Egypt and Sudan will insist on being a party to any decisions that will affect the river’s flow. “The important issue is how the three countries will set the course for moving forward on the project based on the agreed principle of shared benefit and no harm and win-win. The Egyptian side insists on fully abiding by these principles and these commitments,” Idriss said.

Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister Debretsion Gebremichael this week said the Renaissance Dam could begin producing electricity as early as next year. Responding to the concerns of the downstream countries, he told the Bloomberg news agency, “This is an international river and we will try our best to accommodate their interests." The Blue Nile originates high in the mountains of Ethiopia. It provides 85 percent of Nile's water, joining with the White Nile at the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, where it flows north to the Mediterranean Sea.

Source

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hope for the future! Whether it's the U.S. or china it's about time that a foreign power HELPED in Africa! Africa has nowhere to go but up. Foreign meddling is the root of every current problem in Africa, and it seems that POSITIVE foreign meddling could be the best way out.

Really?

Maybe it could have something to do with the population. Of course never any responsibility for the way things are around you.

Some of these countries I'll admit are doing better, but to say it is just foreign isn't being honest.

 

[Osomir]

I just can't see hope with these countries being spotlighted!

They were fairly poor countries to spotlight I think. Africa is growing quite fast and there are some really strong states that have promising futures. Ghana is certainly one, South Africa is as well though they do have trouble with HIV and crime, Botswana has long had a strong democracy and steady growth and is a middle income country akin to Turkey. Liberia has seen promising recovery and growth from its civil war, as has Rwanda. If Kenya can overcome its ethnic divides then it is a booming market as well, particularly as a portal for Chinese movement into the continent. Tanzania as well is linked to the East African Community and shows more promise in my opinion than Ethiopia or Angola (which both have governance issues). Nigeria has long had the north-south divide bu the most heavily concentrated parts of the country in the south are in pretty good shape, minus the issues in the Niger delta.

Africa is definitely a continent on the move in terms of growth.

 

[Osomir]

Hope for the future! Whether it's the U.S. or china it's about time that a foreign power HELPED in Africa! Africa has nowhere to go but up. Foreign meddling is the root of every current problem in Africa, and it seems that POSITIVE foreign meddling could be the best way out.

Really?

Maybe it could have something to do with the population. Of course never any responsibility for the way things are around you.

Some of these countries I'll admit are doing better, but to say it is just foreign isn't being honest.

The population of Africa is fairly low and spread out, which has actually made it difficult for start-up businesses to boom.

 

[peach174]

They eased up on their over burdensome regulations that had created an underground economy and held back their businesses.
We need to do the same thing on our businesses. The more regulations & Corp. taxes, the harder it is on businesses.
They lifted many regulations & taxes (especially Corp taxes) and now they are getting new business and imports from many countries.
How the world rates South Africa - SouthAfrica.info

http://www.southafrica.info/business/investing/open.htm#.Ua9vw3bn-M8

 

[waltky]

Ethiopia not backing off Nile river dam project...

Ethiopia: Halting Dam's Construction Unthinkable
June 06, 2013 — Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia are rising after Ethiopia began diverting the water of a Nile River tributary to build the continent’s biggest hydroelectric power plant. Despite criticism from Egypt, Ethiopia says construction of the dam will proceed.

Ethiopia summoned the Egyptian ambassador this week to demand an explanation after Egyptian politicians were overheard on a live broadcast discussing ways to sabotage the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The spokesperson of the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dina Mufti, says Ethiopia is surprised by the tone of Egyptian officials. "Whether those propaganda that are coming from that corner are the government's position or not, we have asked for verification. We are caught by surprise because some government officials, party leaders and civil society leaders, they were talking about Ethiopia violently and we were surprised. We are waiting for this tone to be watered down very soon," said Dina Mufti.

Egyptian concerns

Ethiopia started diverting a part of the Blue Nile last week for the construction of the $4.7 billion dam. The dam, scheduled to be completed by 2017, will transform Ethiopia into Africa’s biggest power producer. While the construction started almost two years ago, it was not until last week's diversion that tension between Egypt and Ethiopia broke into public view. The government in Cairo said it has not approved the building of the dam, and vowed to prevent the dam from reducing Egypt's water supply.

The construction of the dam in Asosa region Ethiopia, Apr. 2, 2013. Ethiopia started to divert the flow of the Blue Nile river to construct a giant dam, according to its state media, in a move that could impact the Nile-dependent Egypt.

Dina says Ethiopia will not consider halting the construction of the dam. “The halting of the construction is unthinkable. We hear two voices; one is a very backward voice of the 19th century. And there is another voice, with sanity, also a voice that is looking for corporation, for good relationship. So we hope the sane voice will prevail," said Dina.

Both Egypt and Ethiopia are part of the Nile Basin Initiative, a group of nine countries that have agreed to "develop the river in a cooperative manner." An international panel of experts released a report last weekend, concluding that construction of Ethiopia’s dam will not harm downstream countries such as Sudan and Egypt. But the conclusions of the report did not convince Egypt.

Fear of military action

 

[waltky]

Ethiopia throws down the gauntlet...

Ethiopia Ratifies Nile Treaty in Snub to Egypt
June 13, 2013 — Ethiopia's parliament unanimously ratified on Thursday a treaty that strips Egypt of its right to the lion's share of the Nile river waters, raising the political temperature in a dispute between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the construction of a dam.

The parliament's move follows days of irate exchanges between two of Africa's most populous nations over Ethiopia's new hydroelectric plant, which Egypt fears will reduce a water supply that is vital for its 84 million people. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi said Monday he did not want “war” but would keep “all options open.” That prompted Ethiopia to say it was ready to defend its $4.7-billion Great Renaissance Dam near the border with Sudan. Six Nile basin countries including Ethiopia have signed a deal effectively stripping Cairo of its veto, which is based in colonial-era treaties, over dam projects on the Nile, which is the source of nearly all Egypt's water.

A traditional felucca boat carries a cargo of hay as it transits the Nile river, passing the Pyramids of Giza in Cairo, Egypt

Ethiopia's late leader Meles Zenawi had delayed parliamentary ratification until Egypt elected a new government. “Most of the upstream countries have approved it through their parliaments. We delayed it as a gesture of goodwill to the people of Egypt until a formal elected government was in place,” said Ethiopian government spokesman Bereket Simon. “We have a principled stance on the construction of dams. We are determined to see our projects brought to completion,” said Simon. Another government spokesman, Shimeles Kemal, said Ethiopia's 547-seat legislature had voted to “incorporate the treaty into domestic law.”

Diplomacy efforts

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr is expected to travel to Addis Ababa on Sunday for talks about the dam, though Ethiopia's foreign ministry has said there can be no question of suspending construction. An Ethiopian foreign ministry spokesman has said the talks with Egypt are “in the spirit of Ethiopian interests.” The African Union has urged both sides to hold talks to resolve the row. Under a 1929 pact, Egypt is entitled to 55.5 billion cubic meters a year of the Nile's flow of around 84 billion cubic meters.

Along with other upstream neighbors such as Kenya and Sudan, however, Ethiopia argues that this pact is outdated. Ethiopia also has dismissed the talk of military action as “psychological warfare.” Officials in Addis Ababa say technical analysis compiled by experts from Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt provides assurances to downstream nations that the dam being built by an Italian firm will not have a negative impact on the river's water levels.

Ethiopia Ratifies Nile Treaty in Snub to Egypt