$3 Trillion In Commercial Mortgages Set To Implode The commercial real estate bust

[Neubarth]

$3 Trillion In Commercial Mortgages Set To Implode


The commercial real estate bust is in full swing. This $3 trillion mortgage market is standing to push hundreds of banks into failure and adding additional strain to the embattled FDIC. Commercial real estate (CRE) is a good indicator of where things are heading economically because it is a reflection of what revenues are being brought in by certain properties. For example, a strip mall owner will lease out space to clients that ideally will earn more money each month to cover their rents. That is typically how CRE deals went down. But for the past decade people invested in CRE with the implied notion that they could always sell the underlying CRE for a higher price irrespective of the actual revenue stream the real estate could produce. For CRE this is sin number one.

$3 Trillion In Commercial Mortgages Set To Implode
Most over valued region in San Francisco gets a taste of the commercial real estate bust. $3 trillion in loans starting to implode at a faster rate. Why commercial real estate will plunge FDIC insured banks into closure. Bought for $415,000 per apart

 

[Terral]

Hi Neubarth:

$3 Trillion In Commercial Mortgages Set To Implode

The commercial real estate bust is in full swing. This $3 trillion mortgage market is standing to push hundreds of banks into failure and adding additional strain to the embattled FDIC ...

Never underestimate the Obama/U.S. Treasury/FED-Bernanke ability to monetize this debt (story) and place the burden on our children and grandchildren. What is another $3 Trillion when we already owe more than 100 Trillion?? :0)

GL,

Terral

 

[waltky]

Gubmint gonna do away with Fannie Mae?...

Easing U.S., Slowly, Out of Home Financing
February 28, 2013 - Can the American mortgage market ever function again without Uncle Sam guaranteeing that lenders will be repaid?

It is amazing just how few people think it can. “For the foreseeable future, there is simply not enough capacity on the balance sheets of U.S. banks to allow a reliance on depository institutions as the sole source of liquidity for the mortgage market,” stated a report on the American housing market this week, issued by a group that was filled with members of the housing establishment.

The panel, which included Frank Keating, the president of the American Bankers Association and a former governor of Oklahoma, does not see that as an indictment of the American banking system, which would much rather trade leveraged derivatives than keep a lot of mortgage loans on its books. “Given the size of the market and capital constraints on lenders, the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities must continue to play a critical role in providing mortgage liquidity,” added the report, issued by a housing commission formed by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a group that was begun by former Senate majority leaders from both parties. The group thinks investors will not be willing to finance enough mortgages — particularly 30-year fixed-rate loans — without a government guarantee.

The report does an excellent job of analyzing the history of the American housing finance system, as well as looking at the government’s efforts over the years to promote and subsidize rental housing. It calls for changes in those policies as well, aimed at assuring that those with very low incomes “are assured access to housing assistance if they need it.” But those rental proposals are unlikely to lead to legislation any time soon, said Mel Martinez, one of four co-chairmen of the housing panel. Mr. Martinez, a former Republican senator from Florida and housing secretary under President George W. Bush, said in an interview that any proposal calling for spending government money, as this one does, would face tough sledding in Congress.

But he said it was possible that changes in the housing finance system, which is widely criticized on both sides of the aisle, had a better chance of getting approval. Certainly, one principle enunciated by the panel will get wide support: “The private sector must play a far greater role in bearing housing risk.” But the details show that the panel still thinks sufficient money can be found for housing only if Uncle Sam remains the ultimate guarantor for most home mortgages.

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